powderfreak

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I'll gladly give you all my snow.  I have no need or desire for it.  I enjoy tracking them more than the outcome.

Appreciate the gesture.  You're a good man, ha.  We can't control it anyway.  I just hope someone sees something.  It seems quite selfish to wish it away for everyone if I can't get involved, so you cheer for your friends.

The angle of attack has seemed to change in the past few days.  More easterly motion leaving the coast than north.  Would need to see some adjustments there to go back to deeper interior snows.  Of course there's always the H6-H7 snows are further back than we think too.

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Nah PF has realized it ain’t happening for NW NNe and just wants someone to score 

Yeah exactly. There’s no mind games there. It ain’t happening up north so why not cheer it on for someone.  

Just now, PhineasC said:

This sounds like one of those fake “congrats DC” posts Jerry used to post in the MA forum. LOL

lol honestly man, Will shares a shot of his kids outside shoveling 0.35” of snow and it’s like damn, that’s cool.

Theres a lot of folks on the forum who haven’t had snow on the ground, no need to be selfish if they can get one. I’d root for good people.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GEFS are pretty sweet. 

Hope you guys can pull this out down there.. think of the children.  I know Will’s kids are huge snow weenies too like yours, hard not to root for that.  Spread some magic for the kids of E.MA, ha.

It's cold outside.  Sub-zero in the valley.  Mid-slopes are slightly below zero to just above.

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, tough skiing today.

3 degrees now.

Especially when the snow is firm packed cold, slick at times, and skiing is fast.  Fast skiing conditions (because groomed smooth stuff is the only terrain open) in a cold air mass just leads to even colder skiing.  It’s not like you can work up some body energy like you can in natural snow, off-piste or ungroomed snow.

Its cold and fast right now.

It was frigid today.  Just straight cold.  Heating bill going up.

Max of 11F at the local MVL ASOS for an official 00z high temp.

BTV also with a 12F high temp in the wider valley.

21 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It won't be that far away, gotta be close enough to tease us. My call is still that the euro caves and mostly whiffs on a run soon but then the models all jump back west somewhat 36-48 hours out to give a moderate event to some areas. 

That is often the model run pattern, I like that line of thinking based on anecdotal experience.

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My opinion is routed on meteorological features though. I’m not trying to set up some preemptive stance to psyche me out on a fear or something like that. Dryslot mentioned those features. I don’t see an OTS solution at the moment. 

Oh for sure.  Based on guidance it's hard to see a complete whiff or an inland cutter either.  This one definitely lines up so far with enough model spread that there are the usual classic worries between geographic regions.

My gut says fast flow wherever it goes, could be a very solid hit somewhere but residence time seems to be quick.  Fast always makes me think east though.  Models have over-amped storms in the mid-range for years now it seems.

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well you know where I stand. If I’m wrong so be it. But OTS with flurries is the least of my worry.

Everyone has a least likely scenario and everyone has a scenario where some other part of the forum gets raked.  That's the real fear, lets be honest.  Like you raining while interior gets smoked, NNE is always more worried with smoking cirrus while SE gets smoked.  It's a funny dynamic but regardless of the set-up, there are some default "least of my worries" for every poster depending on location .  They are opposites too, like the least of worries up here is raining while the least of worries down there is flurries.

Nice sunset this evening leaving work.

Cold out there.  Car said 2F leaving this morning at 7am.

7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Best potential for us this season so far.

I am most worried about a whiff OTS. GFS has been persistent on that and so many of these big storms have been shredded into oblivion over the past two years it seems impossible to believe one can make it into the GOM near the coast.

Yeah that would be the obvious concern because it’s certainly not going to rain up here.  It’s either going to snow or whiff.

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's good for a mean, But still meaningless.........lol

Completely meaningless.  But gotta talk about something haha.  Wednesday is a long way away.  That mean includes Saint Lawrence Valley jacks and whiffs.

14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Tucky

13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Tuck it. 

9 hours ago, Froude said:

Maybe a bit under the forecast, but a nice snow here in northwest VT. Eyeballing 3-4” with some diamond dust sparkling on top.

Need one solid warning event to really get the season going.

Barnes Camp plot total at Notch gate.  

Nor’incher.

35 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Nantucket and Washington DC going to have more snow than Worcester on 1/5 

You gotta love anomalies.

Just now, alex said:

A nice snowy evening. Eyeing a couple of inches 

I will say I thought we'd see more, but there is a nice fresh layer out there.  Cold too this evening, it's 13F outside.  Still some flurries occasionally moving through, high-vis but floaty flakes.

The "snowpack" is sparkling and despite only 5" of crusty snow with a fresh topping, it looks wintry out in town.  Wife and I just walked home and it's got a winter vibe.  Much better than bare ground and perpetual autumn.  Snowfall and especially depth this season hasn't been noteworthy by any means, but I do know it's seemed white outside a decent amount of the time since sometime in November.

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is why I was laughing at the microanalysis of the 12z EPS. It took 6 hours to look different.

It’s so far out in time.  Models extrapolating current conditions every 6 hours… Dryslot has said it, but wait till Wednesday night, who knows what we see by then.  Precip would move in early Friday AM, that’s an eternity.

DIT is closer to being right at 18z than he was at 12z.

48 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Snowing again, 23 degrees. 

Maybe a bit over 1.5” here?  Ha, those model runs with 0.30-0.45” QPF certainly didn’t happen here.

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS are pretty tucky.

There are worse means for much of the forum.

Some light snow, half inch coating?  Nothing to get too excited about, ha.  Radar looks like a shredded mess.  We’ll see if we can get 2” today.

15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You have had a deep winter thus far. So has Phin and Slot and Lava and Jayhawks and C and N VT. South of that general line has blown dongs that curve to the left and to the right . We have had no winter . It’s been perpetual spring . Our angst is real 

Ground white with 2-6” for long stretches of time is apparently deep.  November seemed white but no where close to deep… and somehow that low ratio, but solid QPF, snow event followed by a ZR event has kept a snowpack and banks.

All we want is a net gain from this current event.  Priorities are low.  We aren’t swimming in snow.

Here’s BTV’s…