powderfreak

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I just got up to look, but EPS looked west. Like way west. Not a single member is southeast of us now

 

Been some tough model reads the past day or two… like some don’t even look at them before making statements when they are so readily available.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like there is a lot on the line with this storm. Both regions feasting for the white stuff.  I think I’m on the outside looking in, so I’m just kicking back and watching the fangs fly.

The funny thing is we all want the same thing… east, so the mid-level fun over PA and SYR can angle northeast and not up into Ontario/Quebec.  I will admit I get triggered a bit by map interpretations that I think miss the larger image lol.  Hopefully it actually goes southeast.

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was SE for me..it’s a fact. Just saying what it showed here. If that’s being a weenie, that’s just fine. 

It’s also not SE… maybe it increased you by 3% on front end thump before rain?  Minor increase in snowfall isn’t a tick SE per se when PA/upstate NY see the largest increases is what I was trying to say.  I want it east too.

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

CT weenies man.

I don’t doubt it can go east and I need that primary to go east of VT to get into any mid-level lift.  I mean they are talking lower than noise level in a couple percentage points in one county. Grab the tail of the wolf and get bit.  

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Actually that 18z is better in my back yard, than it was at 12z…so for me it trended SE.  

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No 

 

We tried to tell Freak 

Lol ok one or two counties of CT went from 48% to 52%.  I forget how IMBY we all are despite large increases in PA and upstate NY.  I just hate poor analysis on easily read models .

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a tic SE of 12zzzz

No it’s not. It’s the same or at least increased the westward side.  Upstate NY saw biggest changes.  Here’s 12z.

18z EPS snow maps looks very similar.  Continues highest probs Berkshires to SVT, and Whites into adjacent Maine.

Just now, LansingWeather said:

I havent been following this storm, is it likely to blow up into a decent nor'easter with high winds?

Depends who you ask.

@PhineasCis going to get like 14” in 10-12 hours and then dry slot with that low level jet into the mountains.  @kulaginmantoo.

Like a wall of QPF moving in and then moving out but high precip rates while it’s there.

Just now, dryslot said:

Shift that all to the east some, Plenty of time for more changes, The one on friday will play a big role in this.

Yeah if it consolidates more east, that mid-level stuff ends up here.  It’s just disjoined conveyors so in reality for most folks it’s a short duration heavy precip event on SE flow and then firehouse keeps moving northeast.  Need to consolidate it to have any chance of a cold conveyor belt or mid-level snows hitting New England.

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes its right over my head so that helped it out, Lets keep that look going, At least try to get this back to at least a hugger with the low on the coast not to BGM.

The dual low is rough here.

12z GFS keeps that primary trucking towards Watertown with great mid-level lift west of that… then there’s the low level jet that breaks off and follows the secondary low up the coast.  Nice 7-10 split here.  Be interesting to see if we can get the coastal more organized with conveyors instead of just a WCB low level blast of SE flow then dry slot.

3 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

exactly.  Met bros tryna discredit a poor old timer .  It's not a 100% lock, but even 75% is pretty good. 

Lol at 75%.  I get it, people want to believe in old school stuff, even bees nests high in trees means big snow year.  But call a spade a spade.

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They did. That’s how DC snowed 

So of the last dozen systems to slam the Sierra one found it’s way there?  Ok I guess you’re on to something.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Mostly voodoo of yore.

Where was that when the Sierra was getting hammered and storms came in over and over in C/N California?  Would’ve been great to have them exit the same latitude over here.

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

That is quite a parade of coastal's on the 0z GFS, Certainly is going to be active the next 15 days.

Not a bad overall look.  Huge swaths of snows all the way up and down the Appalachians.

-12F.

Daytime max temp was -1F this afternoon.  

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

That could be. The track depicted by the GFS just seems rare. Never seems to work out that way, although I'm sure the electric brain guys like Will have examples where it did.

We had a great stretch like 2007 through 2014 of good interior storms.

5 minutes ago, mreaves said:

-7.7° here.  I installed my Ambient just over a year ago and my lowest temp has been -11.1°  I'd like to beat that.

Nice clear evening for temps to plummet.

15 minutes ago, alex said:

-14 already. Not bad

Ha!  Nice.

Car said -9F getting home and local station has same.

Car said -9F pulling in at home at 6:20pm.  Yikes.

It was +9F In Williston leaving Best Buy.  18F difference between Champlain Valley and Stowe.

-24F top of the FourRunner Quad, lol.

34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Watching the radar I bet Mitch got some accumulation tonight. 

Okemo/Ludlow area looked to get hit decently.  5-6” above 2,000ft there, almost all of it this evening.

8 minutes ago, Zeppy said:

3" still snowing. Some of southern VT must be making out well.  11.8/10.9 doesn't seem like the -6 forecast will materialize.

That's awesome.  Love surprise meso-scale snowy evenings.  Your clouds and snow should keep it "warmer" but if you go clear/calm with several inches of fresh fluff, you could drop fast.  I think you are on a hill top though?  May not vacate "warmth" as quickly as a calm valley with fresh snow?

2 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Two words..lookout double.  Tough ride up the four runner today with guns blasting away on lift line.

 

Here's a shot from this morning of the guns going on Liftline.  It's always a dramatic trail to make snow on.  Similar to Hayride, which will be the last snowmaking trail left to hit after the snowmakers finish this current project.  With the cold today and tomorrow, the crew will be maxed out on water.  They should make hay.  Very little compressed air needed relatively speaking at these temperatures... just pump water to the gun and let it rip.  Gallons per minute/GPM metrics cranking.

It is a tough ride though on the FourRunner Quad.  It can be like riding through a 2,100 vertical foot car wash at times when snowmaking is cranking on Liftline, haha.

Regarding the Lookout Double... in the past it has run sometimes when snowmaking is in progress on Liftline.  Usually in the colder temperatures it's actually more tolerable to still ride the Quad as the snowmaking isn't fully pasting you and the bottom of your skis/board in wet snow.  The ski area also doesn't like running the Lookout when it's this cold.  It's a long 14 minutes vs. 7 minutes (with no stops) in these arctic shots.  The top of the FourRunner Quad also has the Octagon to warm up in or dry off vs. the Lookout which has no shelter available until you get to the bottom again.

Not that I don't trust the Lookout double either (I love it, old school slow double), but it is also prone to some longer stops (usually electrical switch stuff that requires a mechanic to respond to)... not the ideal situation with temperatures single digits to well below zero, plus wind exposure.  I would be lying if I didn't acknowledge that tight staffing doesn't make that decision a little easier too.  You weigh the pros and cons in operations.

Love the change of pace though, brutal cold is a novelty that’s fun.

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We buried my dad today in a nice ceremony. Thank you everyone for your love and support.

Sending good vibes your way dude.  Condolences too.