powderfreak

I give you credit for a consistent lack of meteorological reasoning and just going with your emotions. Its convective, sure could only be 1.5” while a town away gets 4”. But it’s hard to be sitting in NCT right now and be Debbie downing it while handing out congrats to every other area in any direction. The only reasoning is a defense mechanism. I’m leaving later to go north but I told my dad 1.5-3.0”, could go more than 3” if it all comes together. There will be some heavy amounts in short duration bursts. Could get shut out for a long time but then hammer off 2.5” in 90 minutes. Briefly pouring here right now due south of Sturbridge/Southbridge, MA a mile under the state line.

Foggy, humid, and raining here as we get clipped along the MA border by that stuff traversing the Pike. It just feels like efficient rain coming, the boundary sagging south, the humidity pooling underneath it, some larger scale forcing as well.

Is this a defense mechanism? Models have been smoking N.CT for over a day, they still crank inches later today and tonight. I’m literally like three towns NE of you in CT right now and think it looks very favorable for heavy rain through Tuesday afternoon… What am I missing? You’ve outlined every area from the NNE mtns to Jersey to Ray to BOS to Tan but have yet to ever mention CT as potential?

From 1930s and 1960s drought talk to Flood Watches. Nature loves her irony. Once again proving why that worry seems over blown.

Through 8-9pm your 0.05” is more rain than numerous models show for you. If any indication you’re ahead of the game?

The DIT reverse psychology strikes again. May need to try it this winter. ”Congrats NNE, wagons North.” ”Congrats PA, NJ, LI, going to trend far south.” And then… CT jack?

Real shallow cool air moving in up north. Still 59F at BTV and 61F at MVL.... but also 61F at 4,000ft on Mount Mansfield. Rare this time of year to have an afternoon feature cooler temps in the lowest 1,000 feet slice of the atmosphere than up at summit level/near 850mb. Be curious to hear how this post might be confusing to anyone.

It’s out through 60 hours. 8pm Tuesday.

Never going to even know who Stein was by the end of the warm season… all that drought talk for naught at the end of the day? Like a couple rainers away from Flood Watches if this pans out. EURO and GFS and GGEM.

Yeah it’s real nice in CT at the lake. Hot and humid. Going back north tomorrow AM to avoid the rain.

BTV down to 59F by noon after 70F at 7:30am. Good call Tip on the colder air working down the valley. 50s in NVT and 80-85F most of SNE.

Looks like the front is through back home? Was 73F at MVL at 11:30pm and now down to 66F as of 1:20pm. North wind at 10-15mph. Temp is going the wrong way diurnally.

What?

Isn’t tan the most rain on that map?

Dangerous using the GFS though, right? 3km NAM had some nice enhancement over the Tolland Massif.

Was there today too, ha. Photo looks familiar. Fantastic day for it. French Fries and Del’s Lemonade for lunch. When in the Fair… first time in probably 15 years after going every year growing up.

Trying hard for it to be in NNE, then models shift it strongly into your area and now you are trying hard for the mid-Atlantic? I can’t figure out if you want rain or not anymore lol.

I am sort of rooting for the more Stein vocal N.CT to Taunton axis to end up with the most rainfall of all of New England by the time fall arrives so when people look back on water totals in 2022 warm season they’ll be like “what drought?”

The problem is think about if you hacked into those systems… you hack an airline’s AI that takes over control and you have some Tom Clancy novel stuff going on with terrorists remotely controlling a jetliner or something.. I think there’s strong resistance to allow a computer or outside entity take over manual controls.

Yeah he stole a commercial airline, I think it was Alaskan Air? They had fighter jets with him and I think he even pulled off a full loop-de-loop in the thing… there’s some audio of the Air Force guys being like “That was nuts.” Unfortunately he did crash it into an uninhabited island after trying a bunch of stunts.

That’s my type of golf right there. 85-90. Beautiful evening at a campfire… Treehouse brews and dare I say the Carhartt hoodie and shorts felt mighty comfortable. Certainly could’ve done without the hoodie too though. Keeps the mosquitoes at bay.

COC business suits out today in CT. This weather is intoxicating. Weekend forecast on my folks’ hallway wall:

It’ll be much narrower than the global model QPF too IMO. Along that boundary. HRRR, 3km NAM, etc will show that.

Timely post as it looked like most guidance shifted south a bit. Hope you get drenched so I can head back north and get a nice afternoon/evening hike in. GFS almost lets me. GGEM spreads the wealth.

Crisp night in NE CT. Feels wonderful. Different type of blue. Saw MVL at home made it to 39F and nearest PWS was 39.6F (ode to MPM).