powderfreak

Never gonna happen but still for the date.

75-80F, then 70-75F, now 67-73F. Make adjustments as data comes out.

The Yellowstone flooding has been pretty insane. They are calling it 500-year event type stuff. Google "Yellowstone Flooding" and there's some crazy stuff. Bridges getting washed away, roads gone, even houses or camps getting floated downstream. The rainfall amounts didn't strike me as overly impressive compared to the east, but with snowmelt and the sharp terrain in the Rockies, it apparently can get out of control in a big way.

Be glad you aren't here. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Saturday is shaping up to be a lousy day for outdoor activities, with an usually cold air mass overhead and a period of gusty north winds making it feel even chillier. Have trended temperatures downward with highs only in the 50s in most areas, with some low 60s in the wide valleys. The latest NAEFS mean wind at 850 millibars is near climatological maximum for northerly flow, with about 30 knots across our region shown at 2 PM. While a low level inversion supports channeled northerly flow in the Champlain Valley, elsewhere mainly stable conditions would keeping wind speeds modest, unable to tap into that stronger wind aloft. However, that will change late in the day or possibly overnight when rapid pressure rises generate a strong isollabaric wind field and widespread gusty north winds develop. Have not added too much of this stronger wind to the forecast at this time but will likely see a period of gusts above 30 MPH Saturday night. Sunday is shaping up to be a little warmer although still below normal as northerly flow persists, possibly trending northwesterly. Relative humidity will fall during the day with anomalously low precipitable water indicative of a dry air mass centered over the region, although even lower values will be to our south and west. NBM dew points are only in the 30s, which would yield minimum RH values in the 30 to 35% range but potentially below 30%.

What about the NAM? It’s colder than the GFS. So is Reggie. ICON is similar to GFS. Why toss everything other than one Op run of the EURO? Either way it looks mainly sunny and fine, it’s just funny the resistance you have to all other guidance. Who cares if it’s in the 60s? Next time an Op run shows 90+, hopefully all the data will be weighed accordingly.

Better than the 55F up here both days, ha. Thats nice weather, briefly hitting 70-71F with dews around 40F and strong downslope dandy NW wind.

That’s a bit better… sneaks many just over the 70F threshold.

Ok so sneaking 60s in there now. Agreed for sure on 60s for your station.

We will tip our cap to you if your Davis station records max temps in the 70s both Saturday and Sunday.

I don't think anyone is completely flipping out . Highs in the 70s and two beautiful days are a straight wishcast based on the available guidance. Will it be 40s, no I'd bet against record low afternoon temperatures. Probably 60s for maxes but what the bulk of the afternoons are matters. You keep mentioning "one op run" and folks that actually look at models can tell you it's on all of them. It's a weather forum, we discuss the model data.

It's not just the GFS. I don't know about anyone freaking out, lol. It is what it is on the guidance if you look at any of it. The 12z NAM has this for 2-M temps late afternoon on Saturday.

10 of 15 days in June so far up here have been right about that level. Last 5 maxes including today so far are 75/79/77/77/77. Last 7 days of May were all 74-82F maxes. It's been pretty incredible to me how many days since May 1st have found their way to max temps right in the sweet spot of 70-80F type stuff. I guess we are due for something different and it sucks that it's Father's Day weekend it decides to crap out.

NAM at 84 hours though... much more cold LBSW in NY State and a nice afternoon eastern/southern NE.

I doubt it's near this but holy crap. 18z Saturday 2-M temps. Upper 30s Adirondacks? Even upper 40s to near 50 down in NW CT. This would be wild at 2pm on Saturday. The ALY zones are probably coldest relative to normal.

Definitely a different climate. Maybe not though? 57F at MVL and 59F at TAN. Quite a geographical difference in terms of miles, but sometimes the temperature difference isn't that much. Looks like comfortable temperatures for most. It was 80/48 down that way today... that's the dream right there. Open all the slider doors and windows wide open. When every room has a sliding door, we live in the outside temperature. 50s at the ASOS gets chilly inside.

I don’t know … I grew up in the 80s and 90s. They still play basketball in the street?

Kids still playing street hockey outside in the daylight, getting yelled at to quiet down? We all know he wants it to be 80/79 at 3am with the A/C units watering the lawn because they are spitting out so much condensation.

Glad you are coming around on the nights and good sleeping weather… as long as it’s warm daytime who cares? You are seeing the light now.

September is often more of a summer month than June relative to temps and humidity lately.

I think it's felt that way largely because above normal in May is not *that* hot. It's very comfortable being +3 in May. Below normal May is like a lot of 40s and 50s. Above normal May is a lot of 60s and 70s. Even June up here is currently above normal but we have hit 80F exactly once in 14 days and it was just touching 80F. So above normal departure but it's all been 60s and 70s. The forum mentality sometimes gets taken over with "Summer starts April 15 or May 1" so above normal temperatures must be hot! When in reality even a +5 departure in May is supremely comfortable. If you read "summer, summer, what a summer" over and over and then are experiencing comfortable temperatures it's easy to think it might be below normal. But some folks have expectations that aren't remotely close to climo.

Another fantastic evening. 66/48. Saw some kelvin-helmholtz waves developing over Mansfield's ridgeline at sunset. Pretty cool to see the waves rolling over top.

I haven’t seen one person say wet weekend… MOS has upper 60s (ORH) to mid-70s (BDL warmest at 75F) both days down there, and those are slanted towards climo. That sounds reasonable.

Just sit and watch the temps at BDL to keep yourself warm?