powderfreak

Euro is pretty weak on the whole with moisture.

GFS QPF and Snow.

Definitely more progressive and later phasing on the actual low but RGEM wasn’t bad. The Greens up here should pack in some snow tomorrow morning with the mid-level Fronto. What’s going to happen is what normally happens… the NGreens will go longer duration while Whites will get it in shorter duration. By Sunday morning I bet it’s fairly similar for the mountains all across the North.

It’s about the overall look. Not the actual values. I didn’t think he mentioned totals anyway. The further east the better the ratios in spots too. A look at 0.75-1.00” can be 9-14” if the last half is cold NNE fluff.

You can really start to feel the strength and warmth of the sun this time of year. Sometimes it's easy to personally dismiss SAD/seasonal affective disorder effects but then I realize that bright sunny afternoons this time of year are almost euphoric. Hard to beat that spring sun to be honest.

I thought that was for 2023? It's for this season!?

I truly am not sure what to think. The models have been jumping around quite a bit. It's going to snow, that's for sure as rain is now off the table. I do question if we get the QPF amounts shown on some of these progs to reach those higher BTV forecast amounts. The mid-levels don't close off and it's a positively titled trough. Great frontogenesis from the strong thermal gradient but still not a set-up that screams high-end snowfall with the open waves aloft and progressive nature. We'll see. I like a widespread 6-12" for most of us posters, with best chance of 12"+ being the Spine depending on how the backside upslope goes.

Grew up at Gore, it'll always be a special nostalgia type place to me. Hope they get slammed hard.

Seriously! Changed my mood today lol.

That was a good run. Big difference in these two panels. 12z 18z

I’m so stoked. Forget winter… let’s go!

That it does. GFS, GGEM and ICON seem to wrap it up more and have much more significant looking upslope signals. At those backside thermal profiles, even 0.25” QPF can pad stats 4-8” of fluff. That’s what will be needed to get 10-12”+ IMO. Sort of like it’s a 5-7” 10:1 synoptic snow and the upslope is the key to really taking it up to that 10-12”+.

Yeah pretty lame but fits the tenor of the season where it only wants to snow 6-10”.

The ICON is amped with REGGIE and GFS. Not sure that's the basket to put my eggs in.

Yeah I bust his balls sometimes but it’s like going on a ski vacation to the Sierra or Alta… you have this anticipation and want to see what the weather can do. Researched past storms, past winters, etc. You want that taste. Moving up north to higher snow climo is almost the same… you spend time in summer looking over past winters and dreaming. Just need to see it once and then you sort of settle into the “along for the ride” mentality as you spend more and more time somewhere. Get that first monster NNE mountain winter out of the way and it’s like cool, saw that, it happens, can relax a bit, ha. Then you find that vision and dreaming means looking at grassy fields end of February and skiing tilted pond ice when you know the record says it can be much better.

These are not alike.

Lol showed a rainer here yesterday now it goes under. Good to see the energy start to get sampled better. What a run for the Chickens.

That arctic shortwave is getting better sampled for 12z/18z today.

QPF tightening up on GFS.

Awesome, what do you think the liquid is…0.50-0.75” for the pasty snow? That’s great that so many got 4-6” of heavy wet snow. Widespread 0.50” water and higher for that paste of under 10:1 ratios.

The weaker, less phased version has always been a possibility. 12"+ is hard to do... 1"+ QPF as snow is hard to do. Nice moderate snow event on the 00z NAM. Lets cover up the ice and bring anything shovelable to NNE.

Ha, I see the dedicated thread now.

The weaker, less phased version has always been a possibility. 12"+ is hard to do... 1"+ QPF as snow is hard to do. Nice moderate snow event on the 00z NAM.

That place does Winter really well. I feel so far south sometimes and then realize we are compared to up there.

It’s the furthest east guidance. Bretton Woods jackpot for Phin and Alex. Gets snow into NW SNE.