powderfreak

This is how you set yourself up for failure. Rushing the seasons. Like if May/June isn’t HHH, you hate it… even knowing it’s coming in July/August. Feels the same when it comes to snow in November/December. Even at 1,000ft in ORH, on December 15 the average high is upper 30s (38F). And that’s at the coldest station in SNE. Climo wise it’s Jan/Feb/Mar for snow. I would worry more if you end up wasting January or February. Not the last week of November into the first two weeks in December. That snowfall can be made up in a hurry. November’s snow average is 2.9” and ORH had that 2” event that pretty much satisfied climo. Entire month of December averages under a foot. That’s one good warning event in the entire month of December to keep pace. SNE gets a widespread foot of snow from a coastal on New Years Eve and it’s a tick above normal snow month.

We’ve all been there. It’s a natural defense mechanism, I’ve done it before snowstorms… you look for what could go wrong. I expect a Messenger SE rug pull every storm. Ya’ll do it all summer, every summer now with rain.

That’s part of it too… worrying that the drug isn’t as good as the dealer says it will be .

That’s the crux of it right there. Everyone knows the variables and that everything in weather is a probability spread. Some people don’t do good with unknowns, probability, and uncertainty too.

The atmosphere has been good lately. Most folks have accepted it, gotten their season parking pass, or will just park in the free lots and ski back to the car. Many locals wanted it to get more expensive (they were used to the AIG $2000 pass) as supply and demand says this should be very expensive to ski here. Social media will never truly calm down because social media does outrage well. I know of a decent amount of people who got Sugarbush passes too. The market will correct itself and I think market correction is already in progress. It’s been a quiet start to the season, different than the frenzy last November IMO. Pretty nice afternoon, I just got off the hill. There’s maybe like 40 people skiing this afternoon, ha.

Patterns also don’t necessarily correlate to measuring inches of snow either. The pattern can be exactly as shown but it still doesn’t snow because of other random variables. That’s where the “satisfaction” side comes in… it can verify but not satisfy. Great patterns don’t produce sometimes, just like terrible patterns can run into one sometimes. But you hedge your bets. It’s all a probability game.

Yes forgot them, I saw their video from the past weekend and that’s legit. Wide trail coverage too. Real vertical, real skiing.

Morrisville-Stowe Airport average high is 41F today. Mid-40s average a week ago. 31/17 yesterday. 36/4 today. 8th straight day solidly below normal. Ginxy’s pattern change call worked out.

I also think the enthusiasm is high this time of year. It’s dark, it’s cold, it feels like winter. Darkness at 4:30-5pm feels like midwinter. Pitch black by 5:15pm. The expectations and “vibe” vastly out-perform the reality. But it’s really still in the mid-November envelop, heading towards late-November. This is so incredibly early in the snow season and climo normals, despite the warmth for the first two weeks. @bwt3650 is spot on in recognizing the snowmaking window and time of year. We are still days away from the time of year when spots like Jay Peak, Smuggs, and Bolton Valley have enough budget allocation to open. Will those spots open their true vertical? Probably not, because it’s still so *early* in the season. There are 5+ months to go of daily operations, it’s a lot. There are s lot of skiers who don’t understand why half the mountain isn’t open this time of year. It’s like why on this forum people are antsy/anxious/upset that mid-winter patterns aren’t settling in. Average highs are in the 40s still at most stations.

Yup. Even marginally below normal cold. -SN falling in the flood lights right now as a weak shortwave moves NW to SE through here. A piece of energy tonight and another tomorrow night. It looks like we are in for a pattern relaxation coming up, but hopefully having the gradient nearby can lead to some forum fun.

Yeah if the right pattern sets up, one even better than those past winters, it can certainly beat them. These days you just need that extra 10% of perfection to best the past in cold records.

2,100 vertical feet is a big deal too for Wildcat. People look at all ski areas as generally equal when it comes to opening... but pay attention to vertical feet and trail length. It's not easy to bury that amount of vertical in the feet of snow wall-to-wall required to support nightly grooming operations. Places opening short vertical have a big advantage as much smaller windows can make it happen. Shameless Stowe plug here but I've been super impressed with the snowmaking crew this year (shockingly, raising minimum wages to $20+/hr attracts people) that is running deep in personnel. If we have two full top-to-bottom runs at 2,100 verts each on Thanksgiving, plus a variety of beginner terrain on lower Spruce, it's a very successful early season buildout to date. When comparing early season snowmaking, the amount of vertical feet and miles available are the true industry metrics. It makes Whiteface's 3,000 vertical feet open this past weekend probably the most impressive of the entire Northeast. Killington had like 600 vertical feet, and was downloading/walking from the skiing... Sugarbush had like 1,000 feet (?) of a beginner/intermediate run open... while Whiteface (a NY State run area) was offering 3,100 vertical feet of sustained pitch, groomed snow from top-to-bottom. IMO, Whiteface won the early season.

Yikes. No word yet? It was really cold last night. Mountain wind chills from Mansfield at 4,000ft were like -25 to -30F, and MWN at 6,000ft was like -50F. Low over this way was 4F this morning.

Low of 4F. Hill is 0F with wind chills of -30F. Here come the heating bills.

Ha, right. Like +6 or +7 even with a week below normal. Just a huge sensible weather shift though. Like it’s 6F outside right now. Snowpack feeding back big time.

Yeah the daily snows have helped too. Not some snowfall that then leaves you with no more flakes the rest of the week. But brushing snow off the car on 3 of the last 5 days adds to the wintry appeal.

It is wild that if you live in the south towns of Buffalo you can see a 5-foot snowstorm like a couple times a decade lol. That’s insane when you start going through photos and dates. Sure it may melt faster than New England, or settle out or whatever… but that’s like “go big or go home” land for snowfall in the East. Need to experience one of those events some day.

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lake1415_stormb.html

9 days up here with temps 60F or higher, including 4 days with highs in the 70s in November. Now today will make 7 days in a row of below normal after getting as high as +30 from normal. Max of 31F today is 11 below normal (42F). Ginxy for President?

Yeah looks like we ended up just over 2” in town today. It is brutal wind/cold combo for November though. Wind chills -25F on Mansfield now and -47F on Mount Washington. Just for posterity, the snow showers/squalls this morning were intense with under 1/4sm vis. Rare for an ASOS. METAR KMVL 201330Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV007 M03/M05 A2981 METAR KMVL 201325Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M03/M05 A2981 What a week to be honest for mid-November.

Yeah I’ve seen that shot before, that’s an old one.

Cold and so much blowing snow in these 30mph gusts in town. The 2” earlier today in the squalls is now getting moved around in a big way. Wind is honking, should be single digits by morning, possibly below zero higher up. Snow sifting down the roads in the wind, arctic type vibes. Also, check out this massive “snow devil” a friend caught spinning up near the picnic tables. IMG_1645.MOV

Helluva upslope/backside event as it leaves too. Big stacked low gets N/E this time of year is “go time.”

It is just absolutely dumping. We've picked up several inches at the mountain, and looks like even out in the valley the very rare ASOS M1/4 visibility +SN. This is true whiteout stuff. METAR KMVL 201330Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV007 M03/M05 A2981 METAR KMVL 201325Z AUTO 00000KT M1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M03/M05 A2981 KMVL 201324Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV006 M03/M05 A2981 RMK AO2 P0000 T10331050

We snow this morning.