powderfreak

That's the dream on the 12z GFS. They gave me the crayons.

All Ensembles definitely looking a bit better to fight off suppression issues, but still a very long way to go. The block can shunt it all south in a hurry.

ALB?

So suppression depression is the flavor.

Dec 2001, 2006, 2015 all come to mind immediately… there are likely a couple others in the last 20 years with well timed torches that went to bare ground around this date.

Oh ok, sorry you seemed to say early December is a “snowy” time of year… when 8 of the last 22 years had had less than 1” at 1,000ft in ORH. I thought by “snowy” you weren’t just talking measurable but real snows… measurable over 0.1” is more likely than 0.0”. Agreed.

How many big snowstorms have you had Dec 5-7 in past 100 years? You said it, I’m curious. Sometimes it happens, but sometimes you get 12”+ in October, ha.

How many major snowstorms 12/5-7 in past 100 years? How many major snowstorms in late October?

This is awesome, ha. I’d be fascinated by a good half inch QPF OES.

Can’t hate it though? Block probably keeps suppressing it. Given GFS it’s probably good to hug it in there. A GFS/ECM mean is a great look for the populations.

Pretty rough look yesterday afternoon... This morning though... good turns.

Just crushed on the Euro. That’d be a storm.

Good run with fun scattered around.

Poor Tolland? Surgical strike by the NCEP guys.

Bit too suppressed here. Must be the block .

GGEM has a nice OES signal.

Many are big synoptic fans over everything else. Hard to argue with it, sometimes we drown our boredom in micro-scale nuances. It’s small victories, seeing a radar with light pellet/graupel showers coating the ground, vs cold mostly cloudy skies. Ha.

Everyone has been focused on a real snow, but that OE signal of a persistent pulsing band feeding into E.MA is very interesting meso-scale stuff. The moment some localized fake mesoscale precip falls semi-frozen, and lands on the coastal plain, it’ll be a fun diversion from the long range discussion. I’ve brought it up on the QPF outputs but the mere signal in models on these mesoscale things that make sense, it can be fun meteorology.

It’s almost like they color coded the ski areas there. Funny how they preserve their snow base depths like that. Depth of 8” yesterday evening, depth of 8” this evening in one of the pink areas. Not ideal by any means but seen it before, will see it again.

Deflection Danny stepping on the gas pedal as Projection Paul rides shotgun. “I’m not disappointed or upset, but I really feel for this guy over here. He must be devastated.”

Yeah don’t think they keep records of that, ha. I’m sure it’s happened. It’s no Dec 2015 or Dec 2006. Today is 32-33F rain. The rain events have been cold for the most part, the Stake has been 8-10” or like 2 weeks now. Doesn’t really take a hit but doesn’t gain either.

lol… “ignore model B and follow model A.” ”Model B has same solution as model A.” ”Ignore both and go with model C.”

Ah is it that easy to get to that side? It’s been a while for me up there.

I want to go to Sugarloaf the most of any other NE ski area. The mountain size, vertical, weather, etc is all intriguing to me. Aesthetically pleasing mountain to me. For Jay, if I was in charge of any capital improvement projects I would 100% be heavily in on high-speed Quad at Bonnie. I’ve skied there a few times but if that lift was fast and could get to a point where you could drop off the other side (Everglades or something like that?) to the Flyer area… that changes how the hill skis. I get the reasoning for fixed grip lifts but Jay doesn’t see enough traffic IMO for a high speed to really change anything but make for a better experience for those on the hill. I’m a big fan of quick laps for the many NE ski days when things aren’t off-the-charts good. Riding slow lifts to ski fast down groomers is a sure ticket to boredom. Slow lifts to deep powder is ok, but let’s be real, there are a lot of NE ski days where it’s scratchy and the day is better not spent on a slow ride for mediocre skiing.

Yeah that’s a rough one. Same as GFS.