powderfreak

Nice all-time record high tied out west in SLC in September. Just baking out there.

I don’t know, but part of me thinks the models were pretty accurate with displaying a widespread heavy rainfall event? The swath of 1.50-2.00”+ is massive from PA up into ME. All weather models continued to signal a widespread high-end water event and it seemed to deliver. My dad says close to 5” along the state border in NE CT.

Yeah for sure, if anything the Stratus is a few points low. When you have to take the center tube out and top off, then pour to fill 8 times, bound to lose a few drops.

Days and days of 60s up here but it’s been relatively humid with dews stuck in the low-60s. Thick, low overcast has been a little claustrophobic in the valley, not being able to see the upper 1-2 thousand feet of the mountains. Low diurnal spreads… like 67F to 61F max/min stuff. Above normal due to the mins, which is usual during many cloudy/precip days here when radiational cooling is baked into climo.

That’s insane, almost hard to believe (not saying I don’t) because so often there are slight inconsistencies in small amounts that widen with the bigger the rainfall.

That was legendary. Like a wet 2” and talking about sledding through mud with a couple inches of wet snow on top.

January 2014 here. Leon can eat a fat one. Cutter-suppression-cutter-suppression-cutter-suppression. More inches of rain than snow for 2-3 weeks.

Is that like 20-25% of your annual average for water? That’s wild.

Anytime someone doesn’t jackpot they’ve been Steined now. “Ah crap, only 2 inches not 8, Stein.”

Safe to say we won’t have Stein mentioned on here again this warm season?

Nice! You made up some ground. My dad says he’s over 4” now.

I mean it doesn’t matter the event but you put a quick 3-6” in like 12 hours into hilly terrain and it’s out of control fast. Doesn’t matter dry or not. The force multiplier of the terrain is the big kicker… all water gets funneled into the same drainages. Even 2” in an hour in the mtns can flush big. I’ve seen trees floating by out back in what is normally shin to knee deep from 3” of rain. Much different topography down there that can handle those water amounts.

0.35” Like a winter storm… a couple feet SNE, a foot for you, a few inches up here.

Wouldn’t further south be closer to having the ocean on two sides (south and east)? Does that proximity to moisture rich source have anything to do with it?

You guys are a riot.

Hammer time is a good indication of a synoptic setup. SW to NE arcing banding from BGM-UCA-ALB-DDH-CON... with the hammer handle echoes going SSW to NNE and blossoming on an upslope/mesoscale level. Anytime you see the hammer form its a sign of a strengthening/consolidating event. Moisture streaming northward and deforming.

Pretty interesting how all day long the HRRR has moved the highest-end localized totals back to the SW along the boundary. The strongest convergence along that axis keeps heading west with time after hitting areas further northeast. The amounts were realized elsewhere, it should line up somewhere in SW CT. It started over NE MA early this morning, moved into far NE CT/S.MA, then PVD and east-central CT, and now progged to shift west into the southern CT/NY border region.

Yeah it's no winter-time fronto gradient or mid-level lift on relatively dry air mass... but it's enough widespread air upgliding in a moisture rich environment for a huge swath of 0.50-1.50" water on the PWS map from southern PA up through southwest ME? It's a very large scale soaking rainfall so far with more to come. I guess was what I was going for with the synoptic aspect.

Thats crazy. 7” is wild in that short a duration. Same for Ginxy’s area. Super impressive. That’s not a bad radar estimate.

True, it was “South of the Pike” for heaviest amounts type of look in the warm sector. A huge shield of rain has been in place all day long from PA into NY state and across southern NNE and northern SNE. Guess that’s called CNE lol. It may show how boring the summer weather has been, but this event has captured me. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. Meteorologically it’s got the deeper layer synoptic lift from mid-level fronto and lifting of moist southwesterly flow aloft… then also very strong lower level lift with 850mb to surface winds turning ESE into the surface frontal boundary. Synoptic scale and mesoscale. Intriguing. Another 15+ hours at least to go too.

Yeah for the highest amounts for sure. Scattershot in a way that it’s luck of the draw. I still like the radar look for a more widespread moderate rain outside the 2-3”/hr stuff. Everyone in CT should get over an inch by morning. Seems to be filling in nicely?

Models have it raining into tomorrow afternoon so we’ll see. NAM at 12pm The GFS even has it going into late afternoon/early evening?

I need you to rain tonight and tomorrow morning or I’ll need to eat crow. My father says they are around 2” but most of that fell within an hour this morning.

This Sox fan is one of them. He’s a very likeable guy. He’s earned respect too… he’s like a Jeter in that regard that he’s immune from the Red Sox fan base hate that comes with the rivalry. Certain players transcend that. I hope Judge gets it. Back up in VT now… a few hundredths maybe? Was raining the whole way most of the time until about Montpelier. Dried out last 20-30 min of the ride.

This is the stuff we come to the forum for. Both of you with much value added today. Thanks.