powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Of note, this is the first time all winter I think the models have shown more snow in parts of New England for run totals than they have in the Sierra. Changes afoot?
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That is absolutely wild for an EPS Mean.
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What a dream for the forum.
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Giddy up next 7 days.
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Fell off the Train? <duck and run>
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I’ve loved the GGEM since day 1, lol. Always shoveling fantasy snow. It always gives hope.
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12z GFS has the next system as a big snow up here too. That’d be a nice 6-7 days.
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GFS gets some snows to the Pike with the IVT lingering. -
Agreed. Tough to bank on that. But it’s also on most models to some extent. If anything changes the most in the next 48 hours it’s definitely the handling of that.
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Love the thread title, ha. Let’s spice it up in the melting pot. I’m thinking 3-6” our way to start. Synoptic density and probably falls over a 24 hour period. Could get a few lollipops higher to 4-8”?
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Yeah sometimes Kuchie is better. But it’s rarely the number shown that’s important, just the overall vibe of the map. I just like using them with the implied idea that it isn’t the actual snowfall value on the map that’s important, just that it’s the amount of QPF expected to fall as snow. I just move the decimal over… says 7.0”, then 0.70” water will come as snow, figure out your own ratio from there. Call it 5-7” or 4-6”.
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Won’t lie it looked funky and the ULL stuff looked too robust back in BTV’s NY zones. RGEM had your NE MA SWFE jack. Climo in these is usually south and east of up here. Best snows are usually immediately north of that mix line in SWFE.
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GFS was nice up this way. TBlizz’s trip saved.
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Yeah, can be a confusing process but that looked like a long duration snow.
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Can’t hate the look. Widespread snow for most, classic gradient pattern but once north of the gradient it escalates real fast.
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Yeah I guess that was my takeaway, that you need cold air originally to dam it in. CAD usually requires cold to begin with.
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Where are you seeing ice? It looks like it's mainly rain or snow. The atmosphere is torched ahead of it. Look at the 850s as it rolls in. SFC are like mid/upper 30s as it rolls in. Not sure where the low level cold push would come from? It all looks like wet-bulbing.
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That's a Ray jackpot. That looks like his dream scenario, ha.
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Yeah I didn't dig into it in the least, just thought it was funny how the model is like "let's show a perfect set-up and then code it all ice. That'll show them."
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Nothing more winter 22-23 than the end of that GGEM run. Beautiful looking set-up big snow. But in 2022-23 fashion... the model says it's mostly sleet somehow.
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Getting at least a more widespread 2”+ zone going too. Some of this map is upslope midweek up here and not the Fri system.
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After all the discussion, worry and hand-wringing… it would be absolutely hilarious if you get a powder day. Couldn't be more “on brand” for you lol.
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Will add a couple shots to the thread too... yesterday was gorgeous.
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Gradient has been looking likely in the means with several systems running the same zones.
