powderfreak

Nothing changed. All-time record highs and we still aren’t skiing.

See here’s the difference… prior to the pattern change, no ski resort could even think about making snow. If the pattern didn’t change, ski areas would still be closed. That is a fact. But they are open. Why? Because it got cold enough to make snow. Places made snow for a good 10-12 days after not being able to make snow the first half of the month. That is a change. It wasn’t meaningless, places opened for skiing and riding. Had natural snow to boot. Sure, it still rains but good grief a one day snapshot of Bretton Woods looking depressing is a sign the pattern didn’t change?

Management wants you to spot the differences in these two images…

Would expect a deeper understanding from a degreed Met that going down 10-20 degrees worth of temp departures is not worth doubling down over… and then using a snow cover map to show nothing changed? Like busting out a snow cover map in April or May when it goes from highs in the 40s to highs in the 70s and 80s and say nothing changed.

Just for context for the forum: For the month of December the average snowfall is… ORH… 11.9” BDL… 9.1” BOS… 7.7” PVD… 6.6” It would appear for most of interior SNE an 8-12” monthly total should be the expectation.

A Mtn Ops friend of mine at Stowe developed a home snowmaking system while in high school that would bury his yard. He’s started up again this season. Dude also has his own home-made rope tow set up. Garden hose and air compressor.

The World Cup requires so many resources that there is no way it doesn't impact the actual skiing product... however I don't think it matters. They are offering skiing/riding to the public, while putting on the single best show for skiing in the northeast. Without the World Cup, they'd be leading the industry at this time for public offerings. The staffing and energy that needs to go into putting on an event like the World Cup, plus concerts, events, parking, etc is so labor intensive. I bet almost everyone at the resort was/has been focused on that event. Financially and globally, having that event run as smooth as it has for several+ years is way more important than the public ski/ride offerings IMO. They'll catch up quickly once the Superstar Quad opens to the public. But they have diverted a lot of resources towards that big ticket event.

I’m one who is starting to dislike the real bone chilling cold… but single digits with snow cover shows the difference in climo from NNE to SNE. Those -10s and -20s mornings are the real annoyances. We’ve already had a minimum of 4F… though not the below 0F readings we can see. Forgot what year but a few Novembers ago we were -6F one night. Of course it’s fake though. All in our minds ha.

WWA for chance of icing issued in advance… following the I-93 icing issues last week?

Ha right, he was just making a post. Tiger is out here dragging a dead animal carcass across the tundra seeing if a Wolf will come bite it.

I figured he was cheering and rooting for the GFS.

I’m just busting your balls. It’ll snow, won’t rain all winter.

Pattern change right on schedule around the 11/12th. Wolfie is going to snarl just for posting the image, it’s only a joke.

Wolfie isn’t here for any of it these days .

"We don't live at 500mb" also comes to mind. The separation between 500mb anomalies and patterns, vs. sensible weather outcomes (ie. snowstorm) is a tough one to make when looking at the future. We all see one level (H5) and assume the SFC will bring us the goods. Understanding the differences will be key going forward.

This afternoon was a great day on the hill. Private ski resort, with a high-speed Quad giving you 2,100 vertical feet in 7 minutes, and literally no one around. Only two real routes down, but despite the poor visibility, the snow surface was sweet. A dense inch of new snow on top of a smooth surface seeing very little skier traffic... the runs this afternoon were sweet considering the heavy rain last night. A mix of snowflakes, pellets, and freezing drizzle came out of the cloud today, but the density of it skied very smooth. Low ratio inch of white material. I counted under a dozen cars in the Mansfield lot. There were three cars over in the Midway lots, but it was as empty as an open operating ski area could be. Literally not seeing another human for the entire run down one of the two open routes. The main issue was the fact that freezing fog/drizzle in the cloud occupied about 1,000 vertical feet (there's a thousand verts above that cloud level, and a thousand below it) and required frequent wiping of ice off the goggles. Very enjoyable for November. I guess Smuggs, Bolton and Jay Peak are closed midweek this week. It's still very early when the neighbors aren't doing 7 day a week operations.

Another good dose of QPF coming, largely in the form of water. No drought concerns lately. Every system seems juicy. Hopefully we can cash in on juicy and cold soon. Even that mid-Nov snow event was pretty good QPF.

That has an Archambault appeal... the best events come when the block relaxes and the NAO values are in flux, especially the backside of a strong block.

Lol yup. That’s how you get us. 2010 style.

18z GFS shows what miracles can come from a huge block. Retrogrades this sucker right into a New England rainer that blue bombs the mid-Atlantic. That ocean storm hits a brick wall and backs it right up. IMG_1725.MOV

Yes you played Devils Advocate or reverse psychology leading up to one of the monster storms. 2013 sounds right. Nickels and Dimes too that turned into an epic stretch also rings a bell lol.

Sounds familiar.

Folks will take any modeled snow at this point lol. The guys at NCEP know it and make sure entire 16 day runs go by without dropping even a tenth of an inch of snow on the populous. All joking aside there is some dark humor in the “pattern finally goes cold and everything suppresses” type outcome deterministically.

Yeah the north probably had one of the stronger changes too… from BTV 120 year all-time November max to 4-5” of snow even at BTV airport within like a week is quite a flip.

We went from setting all-time November highs, running the A/C at 70F nights… to sustaining snow cover for 11 straight days. How someone could say there wasn’t a change is hard to believe.