powderfreak

The winter season officially starts December 21st for a reason. Summer starts June 21st. Climo lags behind solar. We can hate it, but there is a reason why that is a thing.

It is a psych analysis type of evaluation... but even recognizing that, I think it is a rush on the seasonal expectations that leads to disappointment. It could be below normal temperatures at times for sure, behind the rain events. I personally didn't see many graphics posted that showed below normal 2-meter temperatures over a prolonged time. I saw 5-day means or whatever of 500mb heights showing partial below normal levels? That's like 20,000 feet up in the sky. We don't live at H5. The pattern starts at H5 but it's not the end all deterministic outcome. It's hedging bets towards a pattern. An NAO block means a deeper low may form, deepen, and slow along the East Coast. That's it. We'll see if we get any here at the end of autumn, rain or snow.

Yup, I’m in that camp too. Recognizing it is the key to expectations. 2015 is a great example. Folks suffered through the darkest, murkiest time of the year with very little to no snow. Fall 2014 to early 2015… frustrating. Then the sun starts to rise in the sky, people lose their cool because now it’s time for things to head towards the warm season… melts in early January are just that, people who sense the sun going in the other direction and thinking they are on borrowed time. It snows 100” for some spots in the next 3-4 weeks of increasing sun angle and it’s historic on many levels. It’s the coldest time of year despite lengthening daylight and solar angle. The mind plays tricks on our expectations due to the solar pattern. It’s an interesting psychology (Tippy would enjoy it, along with others).

People love to rush the seasons. I think it’s largely caused by the lag between solar vs. climo. When the sun angle increases and daylight lengthens from March to June, they want warmth trending to hot. Reality is there’s a lag and heat/humidity is more commonly July-September. In the autumn, decreasing sun angle and darkness leads to a deep desire for winter in November and December. However, the lag behind the solar schedule says that winter/snow is largely a Jan-Mar exercise. Most people’s frustrations come from the sensible weather not lining up with the solar schedule… causing a rush on seasonal expectations. It should be deep winter right now in people’s minds (because it’s dark at 4-5pm) but climo says it should be above freezing in the means. Doesn’t add up, causes mental conflicts.

If the storms aren’t snow then it never happened. That’s the truth unfortunately. A December run/streak of suppressed but strong lows that result in little snow is viewed the same as “it never happened.” It’s the cold/wet season… one will always take their chances with big QPF this time of year. Weather is a game of probabilities, which people hate because it’s uncertainty. This QPF pattern is the sign of a very strong block. That’s what the guidance has shown, a strong block. Snow is just a nuance in that. You hedge your bets in certain regions with a strong block.

Some people point to ski industry “skier days” statistics to try to show that skiing/riding isn’t growing or becoming more popular… some metrics are flat for overall resort visits. But there are a couple things happening: A) Skiing is better mass marketed by the larger companies and pass programs (some think the wider reach is good, others bad). So there is without a doubt deeper penetration into markets, demographics that were previously untapped. No one will ever convince me that skiing as a whole hasn’t expanded its “reach” to new demographics and income levels in the past 3-5 years. B ) COVID played a significant role. C) Skier visit numbers in the industry (used to describe sport growth or stagnation) are calculated by person per day who ride lifts. It does not calculate all the people who earn their turns or ski without getting on a lift that day. IMO, there are many people who skin or earn turns (usually the core segment) throughout the winter that are not counted in industry metrics. Many of those core segment skiers have left the resort counting metrics, and their space is filled with newcomers. The core segment is still skiing, still posting skiing on social media, but every time they ski without using a lift they aren’t counted as a “skier.” So there are new skiers moving into lift serviced, and others moving away from lift serviced. Most of those who skin, also ride lifts but usually on different days. Maybe it’s a pre-work skin, or a backcountry adventure on a weekend when lifts are busy. Early/late season uphill adventures. None of it is calculated or caught by metrics that are used to judge participation. The industry is growing in popularity, reaching new demographics, and no one will convince me otherwise.

I know you know this, but most of forecasting anything but super short term is maintaining continuity and not swinging with each run or even a day of runs. Never want to windshield wiper it. Stay the course until it’s certain not to happen. The Mets also trust 500mb layouts much better than the laymen, who often want deterministic results immediately. You can tell the steady ones are the ones who will take the 500mb look and play those odds all day even if deterministic doesn’t happen. Every time 500mb looks a certain way, hedge snow. Maybe it doesn’t snow but they will hedge bets that way every time.

Normal is 40/27… looks like it was 50/27 today. About a +5 in BTV-land. Its wild that it’s still early enough that the average low is still only 5 below the freezing mark and most of the day should be above freezing this time of year.

Long post with a lot of images, but everyone knows I'm a firm believer of a picture is worth a thousand words. Today was an interesting day. It was the first day of paid parking in the main Mansfield lots. Free parking was down in the lower lots at Toll Road and Cross Country Center with consistent shuttle access. Well, evidently an economic disincentive does matter. Especially on days with so-so conditions. Despite it being a Friday (work day) early season and a couple days after a rain, the ski area felt as dead as ever. I studied/graduated in economics in my college years. I find it fascinating. It isn't just about money...economics is about behaviors and the explaining the decisions behind them. So I find this experiment oddly interesting for an area with traffic and parking capacity problems (the hill's uphill capacity can take more humans, the road needs to take less vehicles). This is 11 AM, sunny weather, temps rising to the 30s and light winds. Perfect weather to be outside. Only 30 cars. Empty? It will be interesting to see how much the economic control limits demand, especially on the days when conditions are ok, not great. The Mansfield Stake is at 10”. Hovering either side of average past week. Things went from record hot, straight into winter with sustained snow cover even to the valley floors, and now is back to late Nov/early Dec vibes of frozen ground, dusting of snows, some remaining snowbanks. We'll see where the future takes us. This afternoon: Big fan of the snowmaking and grooming friends/team. Mountain Ops as a whole is crushing it so far this season. Opening up another route from Upper Hayride and Jake's Ride tomorrow despite the rough weather this week. They keep making progress on terrain expansion. Today was a beautiful day with some sunshine, comfortable temperatures, and light winds... but "tomorrow may not be the same" was my message on the snow report this evening. I try to give everyone a summery of that day followed by a projection for tomorrow.

Every single poster in this forum would love to average a 24” or greater event per year. I don’t care what anyone says about retention. If they can see 24”< in their backyard in one storm with frequency, they’d take it. I would.

To me it’s about the fact that a climo favored area (BUF/south towns and Tug Hill/Ontario zone) can realistically get a four foot snowstorm once a decade is mind-boggling. Folks can point to snow retention to try to minimize it, but the short term volume of snow that falls in these bands is super high-end. Almost Sierra/western level snowfalls. It will melt fast given more humid mild temperatures (45/35 vs 45/3 air masses like out west), but they are high end totals. True society stopping events.

What starts with R and rhythms with Pain?

Yup, everyone (myself included) loves to “rush” this time of year climo-wise… like it should be deep winter. It really isn’t though. Normal highs at 1500ft are still above freezing (35F) right now. Places like BTV and valleys down in CNE/SNE are still 40F or higher average maxes.

It’s still early though. Is it amazing? No, but it’s holding the “wintry early season at a ski area” vibe. At least it’s white. The Mansfield Stake is at 10”. Hovering either side of average past week. It’s certainly no dumpster fire (yet). This afternoon:

Someone sent it. Had no idea NOAA even buries this type of stuff anywhere on their website. Like how....

NOAA agrees, lol. What is this product?

Ha right… I mean you’d just half to laugh. I’ll take the under on like 8 straight rain events (we already are in the middle of like 3-4 of them). The laughable part is every single one of those lows passes over like the same exact spot north of Montreal. It’s be wild to see that type of consistent parade.

lol that's wild. That's 4 rain events to Canada on the 18z GFS and gearing up for #5 at Day 16. There's no panic, it's just comical.

Had some good squalls today. Dust on moonscape and bare ground lol. At least a half inch fell at home to whiten the ground and get the dog rolling in it after a brief break in the melt yesterday.

Ha, 10” in town and 17” at mountain to date. Nothing noteworthy other than it is snow vs no snow.

Yesterday knocked us back to grass but the cold westerly flow into the hills is trying to whiten it back up in the valley. Wintry appeal I guess? High wind up at 1500ft.

One for the ages.

Lol. Pattern #1… 10 of 12 days having highs of 50F or greater. Pattern #2… 14 of 18 days seeing highs of 32F or below and highest temp of 40F during those 18 days.

During the pattern change. I know no one wants to hear it but we had snow cover down in the valley for almost two weeks during the pattern change that never happened. Today was freezing rain upper mountain with 80mph gusts and a very cold rain down low. If there was no change, it would still be November 2006 with no ski areas operating right now.

Nothing changed. All-time record highs and we still aren’t skiing.