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powderfreak

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  1. powderfreak
    lol. I played the blend and had 1.0-1.5" when he said 0.25-0.5". Should've trusted my gut and gone higher. Out your way, TAN, SE MA, etc... that's some heavy rain still streaming N/NEward. Given the high PWAT air, dews and strong low level jet moving through... this line should be efficient with some areas seeing up to another inch? Low level jet moves eastward and still should be affecting eastern areas through 11pm-12am.
  2. powderfreak
    You sound like DIT... not sure why you guys meh rains so much. All summer, every summer now, lol. After this event and the first few days of May, many places will be at near normal rainfall for the month. Mother Nature likes her averages. Tolland was just over an inch when it was said to be mostly done, just scattered showers. Now it looks like Kev is in an axis from Rockport to Tolland with a bunch of spots going over 2". You may be the same.
  3. powderfreak
    While not my cup of tea for music (no, I do not blast TayTay while wandering around Mansfield)... I do respect what she has built for a following and an overall brand. That's bordering on idol status to have that many people, pay so much money, to see you perform. And she seems to put on a show for them. That image shows it, that's a true entertainer.
  4. powderfreak
    Best spot around. Great choice. Last time I was there was an anniversary dinner. Its funny town is busy, restaurant parking lots packed, forgot why and then your post and I was like oh right, it’s commencement weekend. Good to dodge the rain so far.
  5. powderfreak
    New meaning of “misery mist”.
  6. powderfreak
    There’s a couple Cocorahs stations there that do well. Think they had over 200” in 2010-11. I’d put it at 130-140ish average though. They kinda got relatively skunked this past winter I think with lack of westerly flow events. Most of the storms seemed to be on SE low level jets.
  7. powderfreak
    Snowpack season is almost over. Just patchy cover around the COOP.
  8. powderfreak
    Yeah it was a great day up here. Nice 4-hour hike and now hanging outside. If it didn’t rain for the next three months I’d love it. No Stein concerns here, got a hose to the garden that works well. Looks like you’ve got more coming. Still a bunch streaming northward and those are likely efficient rainers. Bet you can get another half inch. We’ll see what CoCoRAHS shows tomorrow before we grade it in full. Terrible showing by the Euro in this.
  9. powderfreak
    Yeah I mean we all knew that would be localized, but widespread 1-2”, locally 3” will happen for sure. There’s still some good moisture feeding into dews in the low 60s. This thing’s rain is pretty far west considering the “concern” of it being a SE of 95 only event. At the very least most can go 7-10 days now before talking and it being dry.
  10. powderfreak
    I just learned what it means so… WTTE.
  11. powderfreak
    Yeah I get it. You guys look a bit more convective out east. But hard to think the floor is anything less than 0.50-1.00" at the least. That's a solid soaking. Vegetation is fine with that, doesn't need 3" with heavy runoff. Looks like TAN already has 0.20" in the bucket quickly. This stuff will be efficient. No way you get under an inch of rain.
  12. powderfreak
    12z GFS is out and yeah, prob worth being concerned.
  13. powderfreak
    Stein seems to have morphed into a “I didn’t jackpot” type of saying now. Get an inch of rain while others get 2-3”? Stein.
  14. powderfreak
    Yeah holds it at the CT River. The far west and far east models are both merging.
  15. powderfreak
    When it’s on it’s own against a consensus, it just isn’t the same steady model it used to be. The gap has closed. It still doesn’t swing as wildly as other models on the whole. The GFS and GGEM caught on runs ago to a look with heaviest rain “back to the River.” I have taken an odd interest in this model war . Even if it doesn’t concern my weather, hoping for dry here.
  16. powderfreak
    Yeah the first part is largely west of BOS-TAN with heaviest in CT/MA through 8pm. Then another slug comes through late tomorrow evening like 9pm-12am for SE.MA. I bet it’ll be tough to not start thinking Stein in SE MA later tomorrow waiting for it to slowly come east, ha.
  17. powderfreak
    EURO folded as expected when it’s on an island by its own. Huge shift west. Congrats Tolland.
  18. powderfreak
    Nahhh, he’d be tweeting BOX to be careful and keep snow amounts down. Telling them to certainly not issue blizzard warnings back to Litchfield/Berkshire counties. Maybe hold off on issuing any winter weather headlines at all northwest of I-95 until the final model gets on board. I love when Kev bucks the trend, keeps everyone on their toes.
  19. powderfreak
    Sitting at 3000ft wondering how much rain DIT gets.
  20. powderfreak
    Yeah that’s more east of river again. ICON shifted west but was very Euro-like at 12z… moved to about the RGEM.
  21. powderfreak
    I’ll go 1-1.5” for you. Might as well draw a line for fun. I do think the widespread 2-3” is overkill except for narrow convection.
  22. powderfreak
    Tough to compare 18z runs to a previous 12z run. We’ll see what the 18z Euro does. Euro is interesting but hard to toss all the other models, no? Even in winter when it was on an island most would be leaning towards all the others. A mean of all models would be a drenching for you.
  23. powderfreak
    Both NAMs. Might be a west shift. Not sure… will need to see what Fisher thinks. Gonna jackpot Mitch and BackEdge by 00z lol.
  24. powderfreak
    It’s like a Stockholm Syndrome… don’t want their captor to let them go free. Need to have a reason to discuss “Stein” and worship it. An inch of rain is immensely boring as it removes that dialog for at least 7-10 days.
  25. powderfreak
    That is a drastic difference than everything else. That won’t help Kev move off forecasting through fear.
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