powderfreak
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Everything posted by powderfreak
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God dammit . I’m an idiot. -
Reginald not budging for north of pike crowd.
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Good looks for Northeast snow.
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Kirkwood… 163” in January so far. 80” past 7 days.
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Yeah this is the ULL 24 hour QPF, that’s how it clips E.MA with IVT. But it’s just one model run, need meteorology not modelology.
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Not sure on why it’s a south look there with ULL and IVT, but I hope you get some snow dude.
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Still can’t believe his luck. NNE thanks him for his worrying, we finally benefit from the earlier angst.
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Yeah that was a solid tick wetter. Large area of 0.50-0.75”< QPF. I’d sign on the dotted line for a half inch QPF as snow and move into the next one, ha.
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It’s tough to break the seasonal trend, I fully expect one of these runs to start raining to Canada for 1/23. There’s been a few times at this day 5-7 range a system is progged far enough SE to get big snow here (after showing rain in the Day 10 range) and in the end the big snow ends up north of St Lawrence River. Maybe this one is different (like you said, due for a favorable break for the region). Wouldn’t mind seeing a colder shift on that one for some wiggle room as it closes in.
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Love to see some consistency on these... can't wait for this to all fall part at some point, but been a bunch of big runs in a row for two-week pattern of threats.
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Of note, this is the first time all winter I think the models have shown more snow in parts of New England for run totals than they have in the Sierra. Changes afoot?
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That is absolutely wild for an EPS Mean.
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What a dream for the forum.
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Giddy up next 7 days.
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Fell off the Train? <duck and run>
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I’ve loved the GGEM since day 1, lol. Always shoveling fantasy snow. It always gives hope.
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12z GFS has the next system as a big snow up here too. That’d be a nice 6-7 days.
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GFS gets some snows to the Pike with the IVT lingering.
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Agreed. Tough to bank on that. But it’s also on most models to some extent. If anything changes the most in the next 48 hours it’s definitely the handling of that.
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Love the thread title, ha. Let’s spice it up in the melting pot. I’m thinking 3-6” our way to start. Synoptic density and probably falls over a 24 hour period. Could get a few lollipops higher to 4-8”?
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Yeah sometimes Kuchie is better. But it’s rarely the number shown that’s important, just the overall vibe of the map. I just like using them with the implied idea that it isn’t the actual snowfall value on the map that’s important, just that it’s the amount of QPF expected to fall as snow. I just move the decimal over… says 7.0”, then 0.70” water will come as snow, figure out your own ratio from there. Call it 5-7” or 4-6”.
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Won’t lie it looked funky and the ULL stuff looked too robust back in BTV’s NY zones. RGEM had your NE MA SWFE jack. Climo in these is usually south and east of up here. Best snows are usually immediately north of that mix line in SWFE.
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GFS was nice up this way. TBlizz’s trip saved.
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Yeah, can be a confusing process but that looked like a long duration snow.
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Can’t hate the look. Widespread snow for most, classic gradient pattern but once north of the gradient it escalates real fast.
