powderfreak

MVL hit 33F then rose back to 36F. Local PWS 31.5F. MVL ASOS still looking for that record late 32F.

Tonight might be the night of the first freeze to finally end the record late run. Already 33F at neighbor’s PWS and officially MVL is 34/30, so should have room to drop. SLK down to 28F and BML 33F (not sure if BML has had a freeze either yet?)…

That’s some solid color there.

The first sub-32F SFC prog at the MVL ASOS from the latest GFS run is October 31st. That is absolutely insane. I don’t think people understand how rare that is based on standard deviations from the period or record. If we even entertain November 1 as a first freeze at a NNE radiational site, wow. Been a mild fall. This isn’t a troll post, just recognizing what is actually happening.

Yup. Looked like 1/3rd of an inch of freezing rain before snow. Very icy up there.

She loves it. It was snowing very low down under 2000ft when I left the hill. @alex mixing at 1500ft isn’t surprising. Good first walk in the snow and winter environment today. 1” at the Stake officially, ha. We are on the board.

Half inch paste at 3,000ft. Wind is honking.

Dumping. Gusting 50mph too. Snow level 2500ft.

Solid rain event that’s still going along the Spine and west side. East side had a quarter inch head start yesterday (not included here), then the west side blew it away today. Strong gradient and well modeled locally from east to west.

About the same here in the valley/town. Ski area base now over 3”. Definitely a bit of a tonight and find this system very appealing in a cold season type of way. The mountains seeing a similar synoptic rainfall to lower elevations, but it’s the long duration steady upslope lift that really pass the totals. You get the initial large scale precip and then this more localized slow and steady upslope. The mountains are in the “stat padding” portion of a cold season system.

Would be quite the snower in the winter. Base of ski area at a 2.64” storm total, and running 0.19”/hr upslope and gusting 30 NW. Should have some upslope flow of some sort over the next like 24 hours. 1,500ft on east slope of Spine has had 1”+ more water than a few miles away here in town. Office might beat home by 2” water by the end tomorrow late day. This radar in winter makes the ski community feel things. Standing wave from Spine wringing moisture out.

Intriguing for higher elevations tomorrow. GFS has SLK at 32F in snow it looks like.

Roughly 1.20” here so far but the main conveyor has been Spine west into Champlain Valley. BTV area stations around 2” now.

I don’t think I’ll ever forget the noise from a meteor that was caught on the BTV airport cam… was walking the dog in Stowe. Dog hated it, didn’t know what was happening. I figured F-35 Green Mtn Boys were strafing.

We did get 31F up top but it set its latest date on record back to 1956.

It’s actually not that late yet for snow. It is extremely late for first 32F and lower. Theres certainly been years into November without even summit snows. Usually first picnic table snows here are sometime during the second half of October. The snow level has been in the 5,000ft range a couple times, hitting MWN and touching Whiteface summit. But hasn’t dropped low enough to get the 4,000ft range.

Thought never crossed my mind. Nope. Ha. Perfect synoptic evolution to get croaked up here.

To me, that is the biggest indication of warmth. It effects the overnight lows significantly, while more moisture leads to clouds and can cap the daytime highs. You end up with a healthy, above normal temperature regime in the means and one that’s less perceptible. The natural systems, vegetation, environment, all recognize it a bit more than us humans who judge temperatures based on our daytime experience.

The moisture levels and PWATS have been running high for a long time in the means. These systems want to precipitate, especially if there is any phasing or synoptic upper level support. We've had dew points in the 40s for what seems like a couple weeks now, ha. The seasonal progression downward of dew points has stalled for quite a while. We should be seeing 30s and even some 20s dews on a fairly regular basis by now up north. They are what allow the temperatures to drop. There's been no big, dry, autumnal HP moving through yet. The atmosphere continues to be primed for rain/precipitation. Hopefully we can keep this going when temperatures are cold enough to support snow.

The number of synoptic big rainers this warm season has been impressive. Another decent 1-2" rainer possible over a good sized area, with localized 4" amounts? So far this year when the models show good rains, someone can get smoked in a localized area. If the models start showing jackpots of 3-4"+ this season, it has meant that a locality will realize that somewhere. GFS EURO RGEM (because it's the 18z run). NAM

Don’t know really but the mountain has always used November 1st as the time when it’s plausible to make snow and have a chance it sticks around up high. Even if we get temps in October it’s usually not our game seeing as chances are high it’ll melt out. It still can happen in November but to me, 11/1 is the start of snowmaking season when temps allow for a prolonged period (like more than 6 hours, system isn’t going on for like a 3-hr early AM chance).

Yeah and this warmth has no bearing on starting the snow season either. All it takes is one good trough and could have widespread snow ahead of schedule in the first half of November. Sometimes we see that, record warmth goes straight to a big snow event. October 2011 was like a monster snowstorm for south/central in a sea of warmth I believe?

Good call, didn’t even notice but no way those spots were 32F or lower in that August. Weird they are recent years too. Bogus COOP data?

So not all that normal?

Again I’m not posting this with an agenda (feel like that’s required now when talking warmth), but our average first freeze is Sept 30th in Morrisville-Stowe. Latest 32F is October 20, 2005. That’s tomorrow. We haven’t been below 39F. I believe Mansfield was record latest too. It is very late, record late up north.