powderfreak

Japan is a bucket list snow spot on the north island. Cold air from Siberia, crossing the Sea of Japan, then plowing into high topography… it’s a dream set up. Theres a reason some of these towns average like 400-500”. 26” overnight in Niseko, Japan a couple days ago, with rates to 6”/hr. The culture plus snowfall and ski terrain… would love to visit someday.

Someone put up a map of Dec 2003. Feel like that had 18”+ in BTV area and BOS area… which is a hard thing to do.

That would get it done.

Can always start there and go lower if need be.

Very strong flow. At the right height. The downslope was probably past/beyond them to the NW. It’s like rocks in a river. Sometimes the water level is shallow and the water falls sharply/immediately behind a rock, other times if the flow is deeper and stronger, the rock enhances the wave to max out downstream of it… and the resulting crash downward is even further out. It’s all about where the wave of moisture maxes out. Upstream of the barrier in shallow flow, over the barrier, or beyond the barrier in deeper flow.

We’ve got a solid foot of water logged snowpack on the ground… the water runnel patterns are like a topographic map in the snowpack too. This event surprised me. Local observer had 7.3” on 0.90” water in town before it went over to all rain. Solid net gain in SWE, while increasing depth by several inches. Hopefully another attempt at building a true snowpack. The last multi-week attempt got wiped out by the December flood.

Yeah I don’t know to be honest but thought the summit is a precipitation can… like an 8” diameter opening? That’s what they used to use on Mansfield to capture snow on wind swept rock. I always thought it still under-caught.

I believe it falls into a precipitation can up there vs a ground based measurement?

Yeah, especially as it changed back to snow above 2,000ft back at around 9am. 3,000ft saw a net gain of 10" of water soaked snow. This will freeze and essentially raise the base level a full 10 inches for any future snows to fall on at upper mountain terrain (2500-4000ft). A thick layer of concret.

Finding 10” at 3,000 foot snow plot at Stowe. Poured rain on it, then changed back to snow at 9am. Massive net gain of snow/water on hill.

Had 7” on the ground at the base of the mountain. Grooming said 8-9” at midnight but 7” was the morning observation. Seemed pretty similar in town but more like 6.5” at 4:30am. Peaked at like 7.5”.

BTV gusted 69mph. Thats solid.

7” on the ground and pouring rain this AM.

Heavy snow. METAR KMVL 100110Z AUTO 22003KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV004 M02/M04

It’s the inversion level IMO. It dictates how the moisture moves over the terrain.

It is just puking snow. 2”. Apparently heavy sleet and ice pellets with strong winds west of Spine… then you drive into heavy snow in a matter of a few hundred feet crossing onto east side. Hear I-89 and RT 2 through the Winooski Gap goes from like no snow and heavy sleet, to dumping snow like a switch flips.

1” new. 28/25.

Light snow starting up this way.

Its so weird because my links all have Twitter instead of X and just embed on their own.

2-M Winds at 70-80mph on HRRR in BTV and surrounding areas overnight. Yikes. Saw one panel with 84mph.

This is pretty concerning for the Vermont side of the Champlain Valley and BTV suburbs, western slope communities. They can downslope with the best of them in pulse style winds. Some very big 70-80mph events have happened in the past. Wonder if this is another one.

Hey it’s hit on general trends several times this year. To be honest, close in I do think it’s best the Euro in multiple instances this season. Of course it’s going to have its issues, and it’s a bit too jacked on ridge top precipitation, like the 3km NAM does. Regarding the 20”+ in narrow Appalachian area… Its doing it up here too. Its a downslope bright band fake out the HRRR and 3km NAM are prone to do. It’s actually pretty interesting. They print out phantom crazy precipitation amounts just beyond the ridge lines during these strong downslope situations on SE wind… and with marginal thermals. See it do it in PA… Then it does it again up over the west slopes of the Greens. For some reason it puts extreme precip in the downslope zones during marginal thermal profiles. These high precip amounts are not on the Spine, they are actually located west of the barrier and I’ve seen the models do this plenty in the past. Just like all the snow in southern PA and adjacent spots is phantom… so is this 20” on the west slope communities in VT, they’ll get 65mph wind and rain instead. Weird quirk in HRRR and 3km NAM.

Great winter day.

WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

3km NAM… this one feels like a storm for the meso-models. Tight thermals, rain, sleet, snow. Part of me wonders if the global models are over extending the amount of snowfall over wide areas.