powderfreak

There are two paths for any given model run… stay the course or change from the previous run. The majority of runs will change from the previous run. That manifests itself often as reverting to a previous outcome. The process just alternates randomly from 00/06/12/18. We really only notice the changes the off-hour runs make and validate the 00/12z runs in our minds.

Complete mind games.

See I think it’s sort of a myth… 12z can just as easily be a change from 6z. 18z to 00z, etc. Its kind of like an urban legend of weather; if anything changes on a 6z or 18z run, its passed off as a symptom of off-hour craziness .

We have to be in contention for warmest Dec/Jan/Feb meteorological winter up here. I haven’t looked it up but putting up around +8 in the means over 2+ months is wild. And then to have snow cover (not deep but stout) for most of those departures… weird winter.

Up here it also isn’t deep winter by any means. The temperature departures have been incredible. The most incredible part is despite the departures, the winter hasn’t been a complete dumpster fire. We’ve had snow cover for most of the time since November. These departures have resulted in some very dense snow, mixed with a decent amount of rain. MVL ASOS November… -0.7 December… +7.8 January… +8.1 February starting off at +9.5 near the end of week 1. That is an insane flip from November. Putting up those departures but still feeling like it’s been a winter. Today was nice to see the sun and only +4. “Snowpack” is solid ice. Can walk on it.

Yup, throw a 3-5 foot societal disrupter in there and move onto the warm season satisfied after that, ha.

I doubt they ducked a rope. They followed tracks. It happens relatively frequently. Ski Patrol and resort Ops can’t rope the entire ski area. People love to follow tracks if it looks good. We have a place at Stowe called the “Deer Fields” that Stowe Mtn Rescue ends up going in after people a few times a season. It’s off Toll Road and looks very good and skiable. Problem is it drops you into acres of flats and deep snow by the XC Ski Center. And this stuff often happens off beginner trails to be honest and in this instance at Killington it sounds like it was off Great Eastern (Killington’s version of like Stowe’s Toll Road). It probably looked super attractive if 10+ people were already down there. The more worn the path the more likely people are to follow it.

Sounds like up here. We are on a stretch of above days going back to 1/22. We just had two +5 days which were the coldest departures in two weeks. Did 12 straight days of +10 or more and 3 of +20 or more. All with solid snowpack too. It’s all overnight mins just getting torched and the departures are wild this winter. If there’s a way to constantly run ridiculous warm departures, this is it… snowpack, looks like winter and don’t have to pay heating bills because every day is 34/24 instead of 20/3 or whatever.

It’s going to get warm later this week. Positive departures here probably average +15 for 3-4 days later this week. Currently 16F makes me hope we can get down under 10F tonight and near the 4F normal. It was a record -21F last year. The dichotomy is not unnoticed. The valley has a weak snowpack but it is QPF-rich. The mountains in the distance are the Worcester Range. The secondary ridge that forms the eastern Stowe (town) boundary. Behind us is the Spine and also creates some good vertical relief.

You and other NVT skiers/riders know what “fun challenge” means… not ideal and slick/firm surfaces but still skiable and open. These phrases are like codes for condition types.

I won’t lie, today was 32/7. Close enough to normal (which is 27/4). But with the full sun it felt oddly March-like. Walking the dog on the groomed path in town this afternoon, and the high-water content snowpack was starting to glisten a bit. It was starting to corn up into a thin layer of wet granular, the type of stuff solar radiation does coming into spring.

Thats the aftermath of a +8 January. February has started +13! 33/23 average in the early Feb days… absolute torch at +13. Its been so warm in the record book departures.

The time of groom on any trail at any mountain does matter depending on the conditions and if you are there early. First skiers down something groomed at 5-8pm, can notice a difference in the surface verses a trail groomed at 4-7am. Like a field that was just plowed vs one that has settled out. The firm surface holds up better into the day, but the recent one is noticeably more enjoyable at first crack.

It depends on the shifts. Since Perry Merrill is the evening uphill route for skinning, that pod gets done after midnight every day. FourRunner blue terrain is largely before midnight. Some of that isn’t operator either, but stuff groomed earlier in the night is firmer as a rule because it has time to cool and set. Gondola stuff is usually good because it’s been groomed under 5 hours to open and sometimes just an hour before opening. That stuff is freshly tilled with more air in it as it hasn’t had time to set. So it skis softer.

Perry Merrill has been the trail of the season since it opened. Just pristine every day. Veteran groomer on that most mornings with like decades of experience.

What a glorious day of sunshine.

What a day.

See I sort of agree but a winter turn around like 2007 would disagree. February, March, April all featured monster storms and big snows up here. Got like 6 feet in April 2007 at the ski area. Valentines Day, St Patty’s Day, Tax Day, etc. All had high-end storms mixed with a lot of smaller events. If it turns around enough it can erase Dec/Jan. But it needs to be sustained over two full months or more.

Man, to see the sun again. What a treat. Some awesome alpenglow this morning too as the sun first came up.

31F. Normal is 3F. Very low diurnal spreads lately.

Last night we were +28 on the minimum and the day was only +10. Mean temp once again near freezing with no snowmelt despite a +19 daily departure. What a wild pattern. Like the highest possible departures you can get while still being able to keep water frozen for the most part.

Definitely craving some sunshine at this point. Starting to go a bit crazy, ha. Afternoon report… Snow Reporter’s Notes Friday, February 2 at 4 PM Today saw a nice improvement in snow conditions thanks to last night’s light snowfall. The High Road Snow Plot at 3,000ft saw 3 inches of relatively dense snowfall last night, while a healthy inch fell at the base, and it was just enough to enhance the experience today. The winter scene out there was beautiful too, with snow clinging to the frosted trees across the resort. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies in the morning, but then a curious thing may happen. Skies may go partly sunny during the afternoon! We haven’t seen the sun in at least a week, so fingers crossed that giant bright orb in the sky makes an appearance at some point this weekend. Temperatures will be seasonable for February in Vermont with highs ranging from the mid-10s at the summit to the mid-20s in the base area. Ridgetop winds should be out of the north at 15 - 30 miles per hour and usually winds of those speeds do not affect our lift operations.” I’m so done with days and days of this…

High Road Snow Plot on Mansfield had a dense 3”. Felt more like synoptic snow than orographic fare.

I agree with this. I think the mean temperatures in a given season affects larger environmental systems than our personal opinion of that season.

It definitely affects the minimums more. Which begs the question of its importance to snowfall. If 30/17 is +8, does it really matter if the mean is below freezing and snow is on the ground? If overnight temps are 10-15 degrees above normal but daytimes are chilly, do we even experience it as a public that moves about during daylight hours? The public perception is definitely mitigated by daytime temps.