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Everything posted by powderfreak
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Very even snowfall distribution. 11” town at 750ft and 11” at 3,000ft. No change with elevation. I saw Jay showed 8-12”… wonder if they somehow saw a big change with elevation. Not seeing a range at all here.
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5am Barnes Camp pics… 10” new and depth went 32” to 42”. It is deep at 1500ft for snowpack by the Barnes Camp boardwalk.
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Lol couldn’t have been more wrong. 10-11” of total air.
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I was wrong. This mid level band has gone nuts. Fluff factor under this strong lift has been great. Outside of the deeper lift, it’s sand… but in the band, this is fluff.
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Yeah for sure, I'm fine with any snowfall and its fun to get in on this storm. Sometimes I just get gun shy of 10-20" forecasts on like 0.75" water. Though the soundings are ideal... the DGZ is super deep. As long as the air is saturated it should be larger flakes... which is intensity driven. As soon as the rates diminish, that arctic air wants to dry up a bit. I mean, the whole column is essentially in that -12C to -18C zone up to 500mb (18,000ft).
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This is awesome observation/analysis to get during a storm! So varying from 9:1 to 18:1? I think that seems reasonable… maybe averaging out around a 14:1 if it alternates between arctic sand at lower reflectivities to 20:1 fluff under better banding when the column is fully saturated.
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I mean, the QPF has been rock solid for almost two days now. 0.60-0.90” pretty much area wide in NNY, C/NVT and NNH. A 12-14:1 ratio math puts that as a 7-13” event. A 18:1 ratio is 11-16”. I’d lean on the lower end of the ratios…a tick above 10:1 but less than 15:1.
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Yeah call me a Debbie but I’m thinking 8-12” for the mountains and local areas. We’ll see but I envision 10” on like 0.75” water with 14:1 ratios when all is said and done. It’s usually baking powder at these temps and banking on 20:1 ratios makes me uncomfortable forecasting… especially with a dry arctic air mass lurking around the surface and just north of us. I’d take QPF and go 12-14:1 to figure it out.
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Arctic Hounds Unleashed: Long Duration Late January Cold Snap
powderfreak replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
Min of -20F but started rising again. Now a balmy -15F. -
“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco
powderfreak replied to TheSnowman's topic in New England
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Arctic Hounds Unleashed: Long Duration Late January Cold Snap
powderfreak replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
-13F at 7pm is a bit much.
