powderfreak

It all ebbs and flows... you get into ruts, or into great runs... up this way, we couldn't open until December last season. This season it is record breaking snow in mid-November. More snow on the ground now than there was during the entire 2015-2016 season in the mountains. The natural variation in weather patterns is pretty crazy year-to-year... and especially over decadal periods.

The wolf in CT?

HRRR has been one of the best up here lately with the upslope storms lol. 3km NAM is like 200% too wet. Global models don’t see the terrain that well. HRRR was really good with precip amounts.

Honestly the NWS composite radar might be the best bet. The radar up north is rough with the mountains blocking the low level beam. I need to use like the 2.5 degree tilt for here (level 4 on radar scope) as that’s the first scan that clears the mountains… but then it’s hitting precip like 5,000ft over my head. For folks further away east like Mreaves it’s hitting precip way up and often the beam is overshooting cold season low level precip pretty fast. Often in low level upslope the radar isn’t seeing the Jay area well as the beam is too high by the time the higher angle scans get there. Although this radar image is a bit meh for graphics, it’s actually one of the better coverages you’ll find up here. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KCXX/standard

Yeah its becoming a thing now on the internet and social media. Throwing out 16-24" like candy is essentially saying it snowed 1"/hr for 24 hours straight and while it does happen sometimes, there should be people drowning in snow at those amounts. I mean 40" in 48 hours... I've measured that once here and if you get an honest 40" in 48 hours it is on a level that few can comprehend. It is almost paralyzing. It is not something that just gets tossed out there as a guess. Like cars should be completely gone in the parking lot at a 30-40" storm. And you are right, it is definitely the numbers that get people. Everyone knows it's the most snow, but the number of people who I see posting online that have hit some variety of Bolton Valley, Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay this November... most are saying the amounts seem pretty similar. I'd give Jay about 30% more just based on upslope climo as it moves north. Just like the BV to Smuggs stretch usually sees about 30% more than Sugarbush/MRG. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if Bolton was sporting some of the most either given their location and high base elevation like Jay's.

Past event map:

It was, becoming much less by the number of places actually measuring snow.

Jay reported another 16-24" in the past 24 hours and 40" in 48 hours. It just keeps getting wilder. Mansfield measured 16" in the past 48 hours and all-time snow depths.

Expect snowy conditions, ha. Probably a couple feet on the ground up high there.

24-36 hours later and still going.

44" seasonal snowfall measured. 38" of snow depth at the Stake. Not much settling happening out there. This snow is dense, with plenty of dense graupel and smaller flakes, mixed with wind. It has felt like dense sand... QPF-rich frozen precip.

That’s actually good to know. I’ll try on my wife’s iPad later.

I’ve been too busy to ski it today so far but the content coming out of the woods around here is crazy for 11/17. 10” on top of the rain crust and all is good again.

From 6am… Mike Hayes credit.

I hate going down the rabbit hole. I do believe they get more on average, but it’s clear there is zero controllable measurements going on and the report is a “vibe” check. I generally take the lower end of the range as logically acceptable. The upper end could be found drifted in the Face Chutes, but you aren’t finding it at a controlled sheltered measurement plot. And honestly, every single event isn’t a 12” range. Like today, we have 10” at base and 10” at top plots. Their ranges get massive really quickly by adding up to 50% for the summit. I won’t lie, that’s how we used to do it 15 years ago and I know exactly how it works. You know what you have at the bottom, and you just add inches for the top regardless. You find 10”, call it 10-14”. You measure 6”? Call it 6-10”. Just add inches and say that’s what’s at the summit. And it escalates totals REAL fast. That’s the old school Eastern snow report way. Stowe went from like a 333” average to 275-ish average when I started measuring and not basing it on vibe or adding inches “for the summit”… The other thing… it’s fukking snowy out there. If you aren’t measuring or paying attention to time frames, it all blends together. You don’t know what’s new and what’s not. What fell two days ago vs last night. Etc.

In town I’m at like 8” on the season after 4” last night… JSpin’s gotta be double that. Outside my office is a different story, right there at Alex’s elevation.

There’s a meme for that.

Had 10” at 1500ft Barnes Camp plot at Smugglers Notch gate closure on the Stowe side.

Interesting they were all working for me…

The nocturnal blocking came through and organized it really well. It hammered from like 10pm onward. All good, ha. Worried for nothing. Several inches overnight at home but the mountain radar looks crushed.

Yeah it was for sure snowing… Lookout cam had picked up 4” today when I wrote that. Now up to 7” at 2am, ha. Didn’t mean for it to come off like it wasn’t snowing, but to get some of these gaudy amounts 18-24”+ thrown around, I would’ve liked to see a bit more earlier today. The nocturnal flow blocking has helped a lot, congealing into a more laminar classic band.

Kind of a dud so far… flow is too chaotic, not blocked enough. Should’ve known the Froude of 1.5+ for today was going to do less organized precip and mostly just windy snow showers into the NEK. Still should see it try to organize nocturnally as the the flow was going to try and block up a bit after midnight.

Heavy snow in town. Low visibility, easily 1/4sm burst.

Isn’t the normal high for BDL still 52F right now? And that’s for the south shore? Looks normal, no?

Got up to 37F today, melting out the valley fields to reveal deep green. Snow really is poor man’s fertilizer… less than a 1,000ft higher saw a high of 32F and very healthy snowpack on the ground.