nj2va

Was just about to post that. I like this GEFS run so far.

Can’t wait to watch the Bills game tomorrow night in these conditions: Snow before 3am, then snow showers likely, mainly between 3am and 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. West wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

GFS with a warning event. ICON moved towards the GFS. CMC sticking to its guns. Solid 00z suite so far.

This is looking pretty awesome.

I like seeing the PV stronger at through 84H. Would like to see that continue in the run.

Shortwave in AK is more amplified. Not smart enough to say what it means downstream though.

The ICON is a shitty model but at least it’s a model that took a big step away from the other camp. Never a good sign when its one model vs everything else so even though its the ICON, still good.

@brooklynwx99 mentioned the shortwave over Alaska. well, ICON trended stronger with this, which according to him is what we’d want to see. I broke my rule and posted about icon but I’ll take any good trend.

29 and SN. Big fatty dendrites falling.

00z NAM sticks with the GFS’ depiction of the NS SS according to my weenie eyes.

here’s WPC day 6 and 7: disco: The early part of the updated forecast started with a 06Z/00Z model composite with most weight on the 00Z ECMWF and least on the UKMET. Then the blend transitioned to greater emphasis on the 00Z ECMWF mean, last two ECMWF runs, and 00Z CMC/CMC mean with only modest incorporation of the 06Z GFS/GEFS mean. This solution led to the best continuity possible given the guidance spread. The new 12Z runs suggest that the "most likely" scenario could well change, depending on how the remainder of the 12Z ensemble suite turns out.

18z Euro is basically unchanged at 500 through H57. eta: through 75, NS SS is slightly stronger.

Yep, lots can still change either way. I’m just perplexed by having west based blocking and it’s barreling through - and it’s not some kind of transient, east based block. Let’s see what 18z Euro shows!

I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO?

-AOs are great!

It'll be the storm, after the storm, after the next storm, after the next epic pattern sets up, don't worry!

Weenie run for the mountains, with the upslope cranking behind it too.

It's clear through H72 which is what I'm up to, the GFS is not making a move towards the Euro with its handling of the NS vort. Of course it doesn't necessarily mean a blizzard by H170, but thats the key feature early on and it's holding steady.

NAM doesn't look like Euro at 500 at H84 thats for sure.

Don't read Snowgoose's analysis then

Need Heisty's thoughts quickly.

Euro and GFS couldn't be more different with how they are handling that NS wave and its within 84 hours. Someone will be way off in the short range with a key feature.

Spot on. I can remember a time when the UK would "preview" what the Euro generally did, or at least that was the speculation here years ago. It's definitely gone away from that (and of course each setup is different). You forgot to assess the JMA...

I feel like the UK used to be a better model but the last few years has been a trainwreck for events I can remember. And don't get me started on the ICON. Two models IDGAF what they show.

Weenie rule #301 - deform always crushes N&W of the city. GFS shows this below so it's clearly the correct solution.