nj2va

@brooklynwx99 mentioned the shortwave over Alaska. well, ICON trended stronger with this, which according to him is what we’d want to see. I broke my rule and posted about icon but I’ll take any good trend.

29 and SN. Big fatty dendrites falling.

00z NAM sticks with the GFS’ depiction of the NS SS according to my weenie eyes.

here’s WPC day 6 and 7: disco: The early part of the updated forecast started with a 06Z/00Z model composite with most weight on the 00Z ECMWF and least on the UKMET. Then the blend transitioned to greater emphasis on the 00Z ECMWF mean, last two ECMWF runs, and 00Z CMC/CMC mean with only modest incorporation of the 06Z GFS/GEFS mean. This solution led to the best continuity possible given the guidance spread. The new 12Z runs suggest that the "most likely" scenario could well change, depending on how the remainder of the 12Z ensemble suite turns out.

18z Euro is basically unchanged at 500 through H57. eta: through 75, NS SS is slightly stronger.

Yep, lots can still change either way. I’m just perplexed by having west based blocking and it’s barreling through - and it’s not some kind of transient, east based block. Let’s see what 18z Euro shows!

I mean, what's the point of having that west-based -NAO?

-AOs are great!

It'll be the storm, after the storm, after the next storm, after the next epic pattern sets up, don't worry!

Weenie run for the mountains, with the upslope cranking behind it too.

It's clear through H72 which is what I'm up to, the GFS is not making a move towards the Euro with its handling of the NS vort. Of course it doesn't necessarily mean a blizzard by H170, but thats the key feature early on and it's holding steady.

NAM doesn't look like Euro at 500 at H84 thats for sure.

Don't read Snowgoose's analysis then

Need Heisty's thoughts quickly.

Euro and GFS couldn't be more different with how they are handling that NS wave and its within 84 hours. Someone will be way off in the short range with a key feature.

Spot on. I can remember a time when the UK would "preview" what the Euro generally did, or at least that was the speculation here years ago. It's definitely gone away from that (and of course each setup is different). You forgot to assess the JMA...

I feel like the UK used to be a better model but the last few years has been a trainwreck for events I can remember. And don't get me started on the ICON. Two models IDGAF what they show.

Weenie rule #301 - deform always crushes N&W of the city. GFS shows this below so it's clearly the correct solution.

Yellow'd

Im in

While you’re at it, start a storm thread for next Thursday too.

We be snowin’. Wouldn’t shock me if many hit climo by month end.

First legit threat to track for the entire sub forum which is always fun. I’m not even hunting a KU, just a nice Christmas appetizer of a few inches would be great. That upper level look says aspire more weenie, though.

Like seeing that banana high look too.

Meh. 50/50? Pass on that look…