nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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Through 78, heights are a little lower on the EC vs 6z but that may be due to the fact that the NS vort is a little faster this run. Maybe it'll get out just in time to allow this to come north. We'll see...
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It wasn't even close either. Hopefully the GFS doesn't head in the same direction.
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I'm with Leesburg, I'd like to start seeing the Euro and EPS come around to shifting north, even if just slightly today at 12z. I certainly don't think the models have locked into a solution but we'll soon be closing in on 100 hours out so time will be running short on Euro making moves.
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Don’t like seeing the lack of closed 500 low like in 18z.
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ICON gets the 00z suite off a disappointing start for NVA/DC. Precip primarily stays RIC/south. SW VA highest totals.
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Higher heights over Green Land and the AO domain equals -NAO and -AO. Ridge out west and trough in the east signals stormy chances in the east. 50/50 low to lock in confluence. All classic signs for high chances for frozen precip in the Mid-Atl. A consolidated, strong PV keeps cold air up in Northern Canada/Arctic Circle. If it gets beat up/perturbed/elongated, better chances for cold air to spill down into lower Canada/CONUS.
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He’s putting out snowfall totals already? Gutsy.
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Storm cancel
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Lol, that team is cursed as long as Snyder is the owner.
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LOL
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Here’s WPC’s thinking as of 20z for Day 7.
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Also helps to expand the precip shield on the western edge (I think).
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Lol, I swear I didn’t copy your post. Such similar thoughts.
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Any snow next weekend would be bonus considering the late start to this Nino especially. But seems January and beyond could be quite busy around here.
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Holy fook, that’s a KU look right there.
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RiC/Central VA/Central NC bulleye on FV3. Stafford County 1’ and DC 6”. Snow gets just past the M/D line on this run. 18z has been kind.
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Bob doesn’t
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GEFS definitely not south of 12z. 6” line to DC. 2” line is up near Trenton. Haven’t looked through the individual members.
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Go to the regular GFS hour 126 and toggle back to the previous run (12z at 132). That’s not just a wobble, that’s a completely different look at H5: closed low now and more importantly look towards NE. Higher heights at 18z and less energy off the coast.
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True but lets get a storm first and then we can iron out the specifics on temps, RA/SN line, etc. I'm not sure I'm immediately jumping to worrying about rain given the suppressed signal on the last few runs/EPS.
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Wait, so central GA shouldn't plan on 6-8" of snow 150 hours out? So you're telling me the models can't make shifts this far out?
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What?
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Real nice hit for Central and SW VA. Amazing differences at H5. It'll be interesting to see the FV3 which will probably go south to really give us some clarity.
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Precip reaching DC at 144
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The NS sw is a bit further east through 108...sharper trough in the SS sw.
