nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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lol. Always #1
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Looks like RIC will be the northern cutoff of precip on the GFS.
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Hopefully NOAA is smarter than the models.
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Who woulda thunk we’d be sitting here in early December talking about too much confluence suppressing a storm into NC and northern SC?
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It looked better early but the wheels fell off the train towards the end. The confluence does not want to give up.
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You’re telling me. By 75, its pressing down a touch more than 18z. ETA: it’s like the giant middle finger stop sign from the NS.
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Welp, its the NAM but through 63, the sw ss is stronger resulting in heigher heights in front. Confluence in NE is north of 18z. We’ve got nothing to lose so we might as well analyze the NAM.
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You could easily save $$ by using the free sites and browsing each of the sub forums to get what you need. I may decide to do that eventually if weather models doesn’t improve its reliability.
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Unfortunatlely it’d shift north 24 hours out and miss us.
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Oh they (OP and ENS) have favored SW VA/W NC for days but they’ve been bouncing around up here (similar to the OPs)...maybe that’s due to DC/NVA being on the northern fringe so any jog will have a significant impact here? I don’t remember an event where the snowfall means jumped from run to run like it has with this event. Though honestly, I don’t have a laser precise memory like some here where they remember every event like clockwork. We’re on life support but I still think this comes north some.
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They’ve been bouncing around like a fish out of water...6”, 2”, 1”, 7”, 0”, 2”, 1” and so on. The ensembles seem less useful this go around for some reason.
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It’s going to come down to the strength of that confluence. If models are overdoing it or it ends up further north by 50-100 miles, then its game on around here. That stuff could easily change within 78 hours, let alone 100-120 hours out.
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I’ve always used weatherbell until this season and I’m using Weathermodels. I like some aspects of it but overall, find it SO SLOW and frankly unreliable to get the maps I’m looking for (I.e. they don’t load all the time). I’m honestly used to the navigation now and prefer it over wxbell...just took some getting used to. My biggest complaint is how unreliable it is when the data is coming in...or even once the run is done. I’ve even tried it on Safari, Firefox, and Chrome...all the same issues.
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StormVista is the other major site. Though their maps look like it was drawn by my niece.
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Any positive that goes in our favor seems to get squashed (pun intended) by stronger confluence. If we could keep that from trending stronger from here on out, I could see how that relaxes/models overdoing it just enough to bring this north inside of 72 hours. But we can’t be looking at no precip north of VA/NC border and expect that much of a shift. Just keep RIC in the 0.5”+ QPF and I’ll remain interested up until the bitter end.
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18z Euro similar to 12z. Confluence is a touch stronger than 12z but sharper ss sw and the northern energy over the Dakotas is just south of the 12z position. I can’t get the surface map to load because the weathermodels site was apparently created by the Flintstones using Windows 95. ETA: Bad news is that it wouldn’t be a better outcome than 12z if I had to extrapolate from there.
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Someone posted it already, measurable precip is south of EZF which is substantial shift south from 12z. We just have to luck into it on Sunday/Monday as it seems we just bounce back and forth between minor hit and nothing. Hopefully the last run before the storm is a miss....should bode well.
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SEems reasonable at this point. 10-30% chance depending on where you are. If things don’t start shifting tomorrow (not just a run here or there), it’ll be a different story.
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It’ll be funny to see the seasonal snowfall map after this storm. Big ol’ hole over the DC area with the southern MA and Northeast filled in with purples and pinks.
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It seems the GFS has been trending for less interaction between the NS vort coming out of the Dakotas and our ss vort, if you loop the past four runs.
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It's moving east though (as long as not replaced by another NS middle finger vort) -- but its SW than the GFS' position at the same time frame. Also, ss sw is much stronger than the GFS at the same timeframe and there's some phasing already occurring. Like today, its one good thing but a bad thing to offset so we're left with a wash. I'd still take my chances with a bowling ball as depicted on the NAM.
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Putting this here instead of the storm thread but I'd always take my chances with this look at the end of the 18z run of the NAM (blah blah yes its the NAM blah blah).
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I'm hugging anything that shows DC in the game.
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Just north of RIC. EZF is 0.02" of QPF for reference.
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Very nice eulogy by George W. Bush for his father today. *Now back to your regularly scheduled cancel winter programming*
