If that look persists into mid-October, it could easily lead to early flakes for the mountains. The later the month goes with that look, it opens the door for the far NW exurbs too (your area, etc).
The real way it’ll go down is we’ll get a -NAO in early November to give us the hope of a front loaded winter. Dec 1 flips to a +NAO and holds until March.
For this area, I thought the storm tonight was a good one. Gusty winds, lots of T&L, torrential rain. Just had the western tail of a storm that passed through Alexandria too.
The only thing I’m tracking is next weekend’s potential storm. I’ve seen enough patterns D10-D15 change on a dime on the ensembles, both for better and for worse to get myself invested in hoping for an amazing pattern. January looked dreadful a few days ago and now we are hopefully looking at a flip but I still don’t put much faith in D10+ looks.
I mean I’m rooting for a KU pattern just as much as the next weenie but I’m keeping my expectations in check.