nj2va
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Everything posted by nj2va
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That’s what I’ve been looking at it too. NAM is much closer to Euro than GFS.
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84 hours from snow making it into DC and the GFS and Euro couldn’t be more different. It does seem like GFS took another step to the Euro (and as PSU pointed out, ICON would have been a Euro-like solution had the phase been cleaner). I loved the WAA on both 00z models tonight though.
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Through 72, the vort is stronger than prior runs which has been a big difference from the Euro. GFS weakens the vort as it heads east whereas Euro holds/strengthens.
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So little data available with this model but it looks like 0.5”+ snow for DC from the WAA. Similar for Winchester. Seems like places south of Baltimore miss out on the coastal action just by looking at the total precip maps. It’s such a wonky evolution. I like the WAA a lot.
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It’s not a coastal rider. The SLP panels are on WxBell already and it forms near OBX then heads NE about 100 miles off ORF then heads NW from there and makes “landfall” at ACY.
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I think PSU is about to spend the next hour making a point about tucked solutions and beating a dead horse.
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Hypo has to be a troll.
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In addition to the surface....looking at 500, NAM at 84 looks very close to the Euro at 90. It’s definitely not anything like the GFS.
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In 96 hours, he’ll be under a WSW for 18-24”.
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PSU will ignite a mass panic with that post in about 5 minutes.
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There is no reputable model that is a total whiff or mostly rain. Even the “disaster” GFS is 3-6” WAA/dry slot or rain to snow showers on the back-end. Yes, this is not locked in by any means to a solution but its hard to argue against the consistency of the EPS.
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You’re notoriously bad at picking the jackpot between CHO and Arlington. Don’t mess it up for us.
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You aren’t kidding.
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I do the same at Deep Creek....when I was there for MLK weekend, at one point I just laid down and looked up at the sky as the snow fell on me. I probably have a problem. Lol
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It’s basically a perfect run IMO. QPF:
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Me likey....hints of the CCB on an ensemble mean. LFG.
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EPS not out yet. Should be in like 10-20 minutes.
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What will Ji do when tomorrow’s 0.5” is more than he gets on Monday?
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18z and 12z look very similar albeit both the SLP and 500 low are a touch north of 12z. EPS will go out to 144 so will capture the important parts.
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18z Euro gets the 0.5" line just north of DC for tomorrow's 'storm'.
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The para almost takes the low to Chicago before it hits a brick wall and heads to OH. Basically transfers at our latitude. 4-6" from the thump, dry slot, then 1-3" from snow showers on Monday from the ULL
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Euro/GFS are worlds apart at 500. GFS is a strung out wave as it heads east vs the Euro with a MUCH stronger 500 low. I'd rather the Euro on our side.
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ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday. Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want. I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen). The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes. I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON.
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DC now in the “Heavy Snow” weather hazard
