SnowNiner
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Everything posted by SnowNiner
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That's my hope as well Grit. Perhaps the EPS won't pop a ridge in Alaska because it's not "seeing" the higher amp 7/8. 12z seemed to have a bit of one further out in time but yeah, it's way out there in time.
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Agreed. The lack of a -EPO on the EPS concerns me. That's where the key lies IMO for a true pattern change and sustained cold in the east. Rooting for the GEFS but very wary of it overmodeling pacific ridging.
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Ouch. It'll hopefully bounce back overnight.
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Very nice. I love how through the whole time referenced the west coast ridge axis and east coast trough axis just sits there in the perfect spot. Pretty much opposite of the last 2 weeks.
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That's one of the best gefs runs in the long range I've seen. Eps as always not as enthused but still looks very good at h5. Hopefully it ticks up in the mean. Getting to the point where im afraid to keep looking at the models because im afraid theyre going to fall apart. I'm a weenie.
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Yeah, I just don't want it high tailing it to the cod and back out to 4 and 5 for February. Take a stroll and hang out in 8, 1, 2 for a while it's nice there, lol.
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I really hope the MJO doesn't stall out in phase 7, and start back to loop around.
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That's beautiful right there. GEFS has officially joined the party. Bonus: cold and wet. Hopefully the EPS didn't decide to quit overnight and take its ball home.
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It does. This run seemed a little later to the party though. Next week nailing down the timing of this change will be interesting.
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I like it, thanks!. +PNA/-EPO ridge with the TPV on our side of the globe stretched into eastern Canada. And no SE ridge! Let's get the GEFS on board and see it get closer in the next week...hopefully soon we'll be tracking storms and not patterns.
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Now that's what I'm talking about. Hope it's right. How does the STJ look during this period on the EPS? Does it dry up and we go northern stream dominant?
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Now you go in the corner, and you think about what you just said Mr. Long range I'm waiting for the ensembles to tell the tale. Two GFS runs in a row is noteworthy I guess, but I'd like the ensemble means to show an average out likelyhood of a better pattern down the road.
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Well, I didn't get my foot of snow for Mooresville, lol. So close to keeping the sleet at bay. Oh well. 4-5 inches of snow/sleet on the ground in early December is great. We've got a long winter on tap it seems. Let's do this again with the same synoptic setup in about a month. Game on.
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Went to NWS to see if my totals ticked down, they went up for Mooresville! What in the world? Looking at the forecast, there is no changeover to sleet? I'm not following and think this busts pretty bad. 11-18 inches? lol. We'll see, FV3 for the win?
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Sorry, I had that queued up and didn't update. New one is similar in my backyard.
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Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow. I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right. Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...
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HRRR still looks good. For some reason in my mind, it's always been the harbinger of the dreaded warm nose, not the NAM. I'm happy it's on my side. We'll see.
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Thanks grit, to me that looks improved...keeps 850s around clt through most of the storm. Nws still has me over a foot of snow total. Hopefully the colder models win out here.
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Hrrr is usually the crusher of my dreams. Nice to have it wintry for once. Who knows at this point though.
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I was about to say the same. It's on an island by itself. It's either a genius or a doofus, and every storm in the future we'll know how serious to take that model one way or another. I'd love it to be right...
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Yeah, I've yielded to the fact that this is a sleet fest with a nice glaze on top. Shame we had such a nice set up synoptically and can't get a pure snow in CLT. Oh, well it's December. Feels good that we've got at least a storm so stinking early in the season! Let's do this again in about 4 weeks. With a Miller A, Miller B's suck.
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Seems like great south/cooler trends last night. I think it's all going to come down to that warm nose, and can the top down cooling fight it off. That's the difference between just getting the front end thump (6 hours maybe?) and getting the whole storm mostly snow. WPC is on record saying the warm nose shouldn't be too bad as the winds are coming from the east, not southeast. I'm guessing that's due to the 850 low being to our south (wish it was further south). I think the FV3 shows the best case scenerio where the top down cooling keeps the mild warm nose at bay throughout. The other models just don't yet, but seem to do it more last night. Hopefully today's runs makes the cooler trend. Very interested today to see how the RGEM handles the storm.
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Woah!! That's as big as I've seen! please let the other models pick up like that tonight...
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If the euro ticks colder too with the 850s and keeps them in the upstate I'll feel much better. Last run it really warmed once the low got to the coast. Great to see gfs and fv3 correcting colder a bit this evening.
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I hope so, l didn't move from Charlotte to Mooresville for nothing! lol. It always seems to line up that way. With today's trends I'm doubting a bit even Mooresville sees that much. That low keeps getting amped and coming tick by tick north. Eventually I think even Mooresville is a sleetfest.
