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mattskiva

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Everything posted by mattskiva

  1. mattskiva
    1" hail in SE loudoun area https://share.icloud.com/photos/0zy9Q0mb6wdf5m_evGzGqSApg#Chantilly_-_Cedar_Crest
  2. mattskiva
    Waterspout here in Colonial Beach. Someone else caught it on video. Came right over our house, bent trees sideways and blew my storm door off its hinges. https://www.facebook.com/901050326645440/posts/3906459429437833/?vh=e&extid=0
  3. mattskiva
    I was in Carroll County, and I don't remember how much we got, but it was a lot.
  4. mattskiva
    Second this. I've been in NoVA for 30 years and Loudoun has historically done better than Philly. Not so much NW of Philly, that would be more like Winchester, but certainly better than downtown.
  5. mattskiva
    IAD is really at 11.1? Doesn't feel like it here, and I am not far away. Winchester to psuhoffman may be doing well this year, but usually that line is more Manassas to Westminster. It seems like the line of non-suckage is more further NW than in normal years.
  6. mattskiva
    Climo always wins
  7. mattskiva
    Pouring snow here in eastern Loudoun about 1.5" so far. This reminds me a lot of the borderline temps and rates of the Snowquester storm of a few years back - yes I know a sore spot for many, we got 8" while it was all rain 15 miles east.. The heavy wet nature of thr storm so far is very similar.
  8. mattskiva
    Maybe on the coastal plain, but it was well below that on the Allegheny Plateau about 3-4 years ago. I was on a trip with family in Canaan Valley and it was subzero highs (I think -6 one day, -8 the other) on a Sat & Sun in Feb.
  9. mattskiva
    14" so far here in Canaan Valley - based on forecasts, could get close to 20" by Wed. So much for the 3-6" forecast as of Sun AM.
  10. mattskiva
    I can live with that Leesburg total. Was hoping for 20+ but I will survive.
  11. mattskiva
    DC always mixes during the big ones. And by always I don't mean usually, I mean nearly 100 percent of the time. Places like Loudoun, Frederick/Carroll do best often when DC mixes.
  12. mattskiva
    How much of this is from the frontend vs. coastal? Doesn't seem to imply as strong of a coastal as some of the earlier solutions.
  13. mattskiva
    So they're just forecasting based on the WAA, and they think that will last until Monday afternoon there?
  14. mattskiva
    So, I know it's early and they will likely change this forecast, but what model is NWS PIT hugging in putting out this local forecast for Tucker County? Sure doesn't seem like any of them we've been discussing today -- unless there is a warm layer there that I'm missing.
  15. mattskiva
    Northern VA fringed. Fortunately it's a trash model and will be wrong.
  16. mattskiva
    I would literally pay for a forum where only the mets could post - even though it would mean I couldn't post. The amount of bad analysis from non mets is ... well, I was going to say stunning, but probably more accurate to say 'typical'.
  17. mattskiva
    Completely understandable. Also understand why @clskinsfan doesn't like a 2009-10 analog. That said, those of us out near Dulles strongly favor the suppressed solution . It's been five years since the last "big one" here -- and the setup is very similar to some of our historic storms. There is always some risk, but we are about 72 hours out and still have a coastal on the table -- it's been a while since we were this close.
  18. mattskiva
    Loudoun always does well compared to 90% of the sub - but you knew that
  19. mattskiva
    The models never show the mountain effects properly at this range - maybe not enough resolution? Any of the recent runs, with this track, are easily 20"+ in Garrett, probably more in Tucker.
  20. mattskiva
    I'm 30+ miles NW of DC - I would rather see a stronger coastal with mixing along 95 - pretty sure every really big storm we've had here had mixing near 95, while we remained all snow.
  21. mattskiva
    I hope we didn't bullseye too early. Def don't need a north trend here
  22. mattskiva
    The Euro (which has verified the most this year) is consistently showing a big hit, and even the GFS showed significant snow at 18z. What are you talking about?
  23. mattskiva
    This is probably the most consecutive big hits we have had in this time range since 2016, yes?
  24. mattskiva
    Still not a flake here in Loudoun, but a ton of mod-heavy sleet the last hour,
  25. mattskiva
    It's juicy with sleet, yeah. It's snowing to the southeast but this storm hates NoVA.
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