mattskiva

The models never show the mountain effects properly at this range - maybe not enough resolution? Any of the recent runs, with this track, are easily 20"+ in Garrett, probably more in Tucker.

I'm 30+ miles NW of DC - I would rather see a stronger coastal with mixing along 95 - pretty sure every really big storm we've had here had mixing near 95, while we remained all snow.

I hope we didn't bullseye too early. Def don't need a north trend here

The Euro (which has verified the most this year) is consistently showing a big hit, and even the GFS showed significant snow at 18z. What are you talking about?

This is probably the most consecutive big hits we have had in this time range since 2016, yes?

Still not a flake here in Loudoun, but a ton of mod-heavy sleet the last hour,

It's juicy with sleet, yeah. It's snowing to the southeast but this storm hates NoVA.

Mod to heavy sleet/rain mix, holding at 32.5F

How is it reportedly snowing in Bowie and a sleet-rain mix in Loudoun County? Pretty sure that has never happened before.

32.7F, moderate rain/sleet mix

It is funny - several different radars I have checked all show me well inside the blue, but it definitely ain't snow out there.

Frontend thump ... of rain mixed with sleet.

Sleetfest here in eastern Loudoun. Moderate rate now.

LOL at the Allegheny Plateau totals there

Mountain forecasting is hard, no matter where you are. The models generally don't account for upslope and local terrain effects well, and often underestimate precip and snow. I have spent a lot of time in mountains from Virginia to Maine and from Colorado to the Cascades, and the NWS zone forecasts are never very good. That said, NWS PIT handled this event well - they issued a WSW for Tucker yesterday for 5-9" and were right on the mark. Most people here probably know about it, but for those who don't, http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com/ is a great local resource for Davis/Canaan.

Yep. I drove out for the storm in Jan 2016, was there the first day skiing at Timberline in an absolute whiteout, snow continued overnight, and woke up to almost 30" total. I drove from the lodge at Canaan to Timberline the next morning with no problems whatsoever. Roads were completely plowed and easy 3-4 hours after a 30" storm. They know what they are doing.

How quickly some of you forget the period from 2013-2016. Seemed like every year was a good snow year here, at least in Loudoun. Yeah we've had a few bad years since, but it wasn't that long ago that this area did well regularly.

Well, that verbatim would be good for the ski areas, at least. And they desperately need it.

Snowmageddon 1 without a doubt. Living in Loudoun County, we got a foot more snow out of that one than '96. I do remember '96 fondly, though. The negative for me in that one was that there was a lot more mixing which kept totals down a bit. My parents lived in Carroll County, MD and got crazy amounts in '96.