Wannabehippie

Well at least as a naked swirl, we can tell it has a closed circulation...... Still a lot of dry air in the area around TS Gabrielle.

Gabrielle looks terrible on satellite photos. Stretched out, mid and low level circulation centers are disconnected. https://zoom.earth/storms/gabrielle-2025/

Definitely a mess, sheared apart by an ULL. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/5026dd98-4087-4470-abf3-c589c2404393 Plus surrounded by dry sinking air.

Satellite photos show an ULL dropping down, that probably will interfere with development. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/53dc1fce-b712-4618-afb4-c94259665cca

There was more SAL when 91L was around. That has cleared out an area, where 92L is at right now. There is still some ahead of it, and a big blob behind it. But where it is right now it is in a good spot. 92L also has a lot more convection than 91L ever had associated with it. 92L still will need to have that dry air ahead of it get out of the way, or it will fizzle out as well IMHO. No closed circulation that I can pick out with my untrained eyes. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/75019b3b-06c8-416d-8b72-d0c8bb3da341

oof. This is not a pretty picture for something to develop.Zero convection with that wave that just came off the coast, and has SAL mixed in with it.

SAL has eased up, which will give a window for the new system coming off of Africa to develop in a few days. It is currently at 0% in next 48, but increases to 40% in next 7 days. Even with that, it looks like it will be a fish storm, if it develops. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&basin=atlc&fdays=7

TD13-E has formed in eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Mexico. Predicted to head away from land, become a fish storm, peaking out around Sunday noon to Monday noon, weakening after that time.

Chances of formation are still low as per NHC. 0% in next 48 hours. 30% in next 7 days.

That very large wave just coming off the coast of Africa might have a little gap to develop IMHO, before it runs in to the SAL.

And here we are at peak, no named storms, no surprise given the conditions out there in the Atlantic. When is the secondary peak in October?

New area of interest in the far eastern Atlantic. Still a lot of SAL out there. 0% in short term 20% in next 7 days. IMHO, unless the SAL clears out somehow, this one will fizzle out like the last one.

Eastern Atlantic is not much better at the moment with the SAL out there.

I've been saying all along that there was just too much SAL out there for development.

Tons of dry air out there right now. Even the NHC is making notes about it now how it will inhibit any development for the next few days. Unless that dry air lifts up, or otherwise gets out of the way, this will be a whole lot of nothing.

Still no closed circulation that I can make out on satellite photos. The one behind this one actually looks more impressive. Plus there is still one over Africa that has a lot of convection associated with it. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/945a622d-62e6-412d-93cd-f03b00964225

So far the wave is pretty far south, and to the north, and west is SAL.

Satellite photo of Africa is unimpressive to me. Until you get way out by Sudan/South Sudan.

Too far south, and too much SAL.

Seems early to see such vibrant colors.

I wonder when the Yankees and the Mets will get their games in at their respective stadiums.

The wave just off the coast of Africa has a lot of convection associated with it, but definitely no closed low, just an open wave. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/df892e47-86d6-4518-a334-54707c0b57d5

off topic but the anniversary of the death of Jerry Garcia is today.

The US Government is "re-evaluating" past documents to "reflect reality" on climate change. To me this is them putting in rigged data, to support the coal, and oil industries. This document is being re-done by someone from the fossil fuel industry. I don't want to get too political here, but what the hell?