Wannabehippie

Possibly if that low is too close to eastern half of LI, especially south facing areas. A difference of 20 miles can make a huge difference, and that has to be within the range of errors on all the models.

This system shows why Miller B storms are always iffy for coastal areas. If that secondary low isn't strong enough, or forms too close to the coast, warmer air will mix in, producing sleet, freezing rain, possibly rain along coastal areas. If we want a big all snow storm we need a Miller A just off the coast, or a Miller B with that secondary in the right position, and strong enough to take over from the primary. Still it looks like we will get a nice thump of snow before it mixes with sleet, possibly freezing rain in areas. So, no real complaints from me, as it is still going to fall within my 0" - 100" prediction range.

Logically this doesn't make sense, interior NJ has sleet, but NYC and LI is all snow?

18 in Riverdale NJ

Coastal areas are always on the edge in Miller B systems. They need a pure Miller A tracking just off the coast, no inland primary.

I am sticking with my 0"-100" total snow fall total from this weekend's storm for the forecast area. Prove me wrong storm, prove me wrong.

Tonight on the Joe and Joe show on youtube, the Joes will be joined by DT, Alan Kaspar, Bill Goodman. I hope it is ok to post this here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL7K-oOsNuY

Daily Mail is the NYP on steroids.

Anyone planing on going for a Jebwalk?

All the stores by me still have limited supplies, and are getting more in tomorrow, and Saturday.

Feel better soon.

Thank you.

Many cities cut back on the amount of salt they purchased after a series of below normal snowfall winters. Piscataway isn't the only city facing shortages. There is a mad scramble to get more now. Lots of competition for it, especially with the widespread ice storm predicted in the south.

I am donating platelets on Saturday, going food shopping afterwards. May the force be with me.

I mean it is the NYP. Overhype is their MO.

UKie is currently showing a weaker secondary that doesn't really get going until it is south of Cape Cod.

It is all going to be about how close that secondary low is tucked in to the coast off of NJ. Even a small move east or west will affect if/when we change over. Right now they all, except for the GFS, want to tuck that secondary low fairly close to NJ before moving away.

What do the soundings look like?

I definitely would prefer all snow, or just all rain, than sleet, or even worse, freezing rain. Give me 6" of all snow instead of 10"-14" of snow, then sleet or freezing rain on top of it.

From what can see on the forecast models, the secondary low being even 20 miles further south and east would likely eliminate any mixing issues from the NYC/LI/CT area. The cold air at the surface will definitely be very stubborn to get out.

I am west of Wayne. I will take a 10"-15" snow total.

Miller B set up. Primary low, transfers energy to secondary low off the coast.

Would a set up like this cause thundersnow?

The secondary low has a fairly tight spread. What is the timing for the secondary low to take over?

I think the cold air will be stubborn to get out. That is a strong high pressure system, with damn low temps at all levels of the atmosphere, at least for most of the storm. GFS and Euro soundings both show temps in the teens or maybe low 20s at most thru the storm in the NYC tri-state area. It looks like on the Euro you would have to get to around the same latitude as Philly before being concerned about any mixing issues. Canadian looks to be the warmest solution, with the rain/snow line getting as far north as the south shore of LI.