Wannabehippie

UKie is currently showing a weaker secondary that doesn't really get going until it is south of Cape Cod.

It is all going to be about how close that secondary low is tucked in to the coast off of NJ. Even a small move east or west will affect if/when we change over. Right now they all, except for the GFS, want to tuck that secondary low fairly close to NJ before moving away.

What do the soundings look like?

I definitely would prefer all snow, or just all rain, than sleet, or even worse, freezing rain. Give me 6" of all snow instead of 10"-14" of snow, then sleet or freezing rain on top of it.

From what can see on the forecast models, the secondary low being even 20 miles further south and east would likely eliminate any mixing issues from the NYC/LI/CT area. The cold air at the surface will definitely be very stubborn to get out.

I am west of Wayne. I will take a 10"-15" snow total.

Miller B set up. Primary low, transfers energy to secondary low off the coast.

Would a set up like this cause thundersnow?

The secondary low has a fairly tight spread. What is the timing for the secondary low to take over?

I think the cold air will be stubborn to get out. That is a strong high pressure system, with damn low temps at all levels of the atmosphere, at least for most of the storm. GFS and Euro soundings both show temps in the teens or maybe low 20s at most thru the storm in the NYC tri-state area. It looks like on the Euro you would have to get to around the same latitude as Philly before being concerned about any mixing issues. Canadian looks to be the warmest solution, with the rain/snow line getting as far north as the south shore of LI.

I am still sticking with my 0"- 100" forecast.

Depending on the wind direction, do you think that even the mid 20's might be overdoing it? The soundings I am seeing across the models are incredibly cold

South of I-78 who care?

King NAM?

That predicted ice storm in the south has the potential to be historic, extremely dangerous. Long term power outages, trees down, roads not safe at all for any vehicles. They will have to bring in salt/sand equipment, power line repair people from where ever they can. With the FEMA cuts, emergency funds might run low until a special funding bill can be passed.

Ratios are going to be pretty high for this system, 4"-8" should be easy to get even with less than .5" of liquid.

Snow hole for Philly as usual. between 0" and 100"

My first call NYC - between 0" and 100" ISP - between 0" and 100" AC - Between 0" and 100" DC - Between 0" and 100" Bos - Between 0" and 100" No way I can be wrong.

Starting about when?

If we get to phase 8. Being teased by the MJO is not fun.

Not without a snow pack IMHO.

If the MJO ever gets to 7 and 8. How many times have we been teased that the MJO will go in to a phase that is conducive to snow along the Atlantic corridor, only for it to skip, and go to a different phase.

The 18z GFS has some snow, but not nearly the amount it did on the 12z. Will the next run go further east or west? It has been all over the place.

After having a storm come east on the 12z GFS for the tri-state area, the 18z has it further east. Not as far east, south as the Euro or Icon.

Thank you.