Wannabehippie

I am still sticking with my 0"- 100" forecast.

Depending on the wind direction, do you think that even the mid 20's might be overdoing it? The soundings I am seeing across the models are incredibly cold

South of I-78 who care?

King NAM?

That predicted ice storm in the south has the potential to be historic, extremely dangerous. Long term power outages, trees down, roads not safe at all for any vehicles. They will have to bring in salt/sand equipment, power line repair people from where ever they can. With the FEMA cuts, emergency funds might run low until a special funding bill can be passed.

Ratios are going to be pretty high for this system, 4"-8" should be easy to get even with less than .5" of liquid.

Snow hole for Philly as usual. between 0" and 100"

My first call NYC - between 0" and 100" ISP - between 0" and 100" AC - Between 0" and 100" DC - Between 0" and 100" Bos - Between 0" and 100" No way I can be wrong.

Starting about when?

If we get to phase 8. Being teased by the MJO is not fun.

Not without a snow pack IMHO.

If the MJO ever gets to 7 and 8. How many times have we been teased that the MJO will go in to a phase that is conducive to snow along the Atlantic corridor, only for it to skip, and go to a different phase.

The 18z GFS has some snow, but not nearly the amount it did on the 12z. Will the next run go further east or west? It has been all over the place.

After having a storm come east on the 12z GFS for the tri-state area, the 18z has it further east. Not as far east, south as the Euro or Icon.

Thank you.

What is a category 3 snowstorm?

Yeah obviously. I mean maybe for the season in the lake effect area sure. But central Ohio? No way.

Active pattern sure, but 60 inches in 24 hours in central Ohio?

That would literally be up to my nose. It is a complete joke, but it gave me a laugh.

Entire tri-state area gets clobbered by an ice storm/sleet storm on the GFS 18z at 270 hours. It shows 16 at the surface, primary low around SC/TN, secondary low forming off the Delmarva coast. Completely laughable. But boggles my mind on how these models come up with this stuff.

I am with you on that bet. But someone will take the over on the snowfall, under on temps, and one day they will get that huge payout.

There is that weenie model that we would all love to see. Maybe the low a tad further east to avoid any mixing issues along the twin forks, south shore of LI. Likelihood of this 276 hour model being correct? Very low. Show it to me again when it is within 5 days, and it will get me interested in it. bring those big snow totals further east and you will get a lot of snow weenies very excited. Even if this is for 360 hours out. :)

Will all that cold air, with the accompanying big high pressure system suppress everything south, with just a few light snow events via clippers coming thru, or will we squeeze in a system to ride up the coast? Stay tuned.

Any model is going to have a greater degree of error past 5 days than in the short term. So many different pieces need to fall in to place to get a huge snowstorm for the big cities in the Atlantic corridor. The Greenland block needs to be in just the right spot. EPO, NAO, AO, PNAall set up just right. MJO in the right phase. Not too strong of a high coming down from Canada. Anything out of place and that big storm doesn't form or hit. This is why I try not to get excited about anything past 5 days, no matter which model is showing something.

Any snow piles that I had left are being washed away this evening. I expect them all to be gone by morning. Ready for a fresh snow.