Wannabehippie

On the other hand Miller As you generally will get an all snow event. Miller B often brings a mixed bag thanks to that inland primary low.

Feb 5th for phase 2, 15th for phase 3.

We are currently in MJO phase 8 heading to phase 1, which is supposed to be "good" for east coast snow storms right? But then to phase 2/3, which is no bueno for east coast snow.

If it clobbers NYC, they will dump it in the East, and Hudson rivers again.

I am not getting excited about something 5 days away, and a system that hasn't even formed yet.

The ratios fell because of the sleet, compaction. During the height of the storm ratios were pretty high.

I was going to go on a Jebwalk to day, but it was too damn cold.

I am still in the mid teens.

I always cleared an area to the right of my driveway, so when the plow would come in, there was nothing for it to rebury my parents driveway.

I would have to stick my head out on to my balcony to find out if it is all snow by me, or if it is a mix of snow/sleet. But at 14 degrees outside, it is not worth it. Accuweather, weather channel both say it is all snow in Riverdale, NJ.

One idiot reporter on the TV news kept calling it hail.....

What is CP in NYC reporting?

How often are you going to see ground temps that far below freezing, with just freezing rain?

The ratios have to be off the wall with how cold it is at all levels right now.

HRRR is drunk. It needs to go home. People already have totals over what it is predicting for the entire storm.

where do you go to get the classic weather channel graphics?

I am thinking areas south of I-78 will be the battle zone in NJ for that 32 degree line.

Anyone going on a Jebwalk early tomorrow AM before any change over?

Possibly if that low is too close to eastern half of LI, especially south facing areas. A difference of 20 miles can make a huge difference, and that has to be within the range of errors on all the models.

This system shows why Miller B storms are always iffy for coastal areas. If that secondary low isn't strong enough, or forms too close to the coast, warmer air will mix in, producing sleet, freezing rain, possibly rain along coastal areas. If we want a big all snow storm we need a Miller A just off the coast, or a Miller B with that secondary in the right position, and strong enough to take over from the primary. Still it looks like we will get a nice thump of snow before it mixes with sleet, possibly freezing rain in areas. So, no real complaints from me, as it is still going to fall within my 0" - 100" prediction range.

Logically this doesn't make sense, interior NJ has sleet, but NYC and LI is all snow?

18 in Riverdale NJ

Coastal areas are always on the edge in Miller B systems. They need a pure Miller A tracking just off the coast, no inland primary.