Wannabehippie

If the MJO ever gets to 7 and 8. How many times have we been teased that the MJO will go in to a phase that is conducive to snow along the Atlantic corridor, only for it to skip, and go to a different phase.

The 18z GFS has some snow, but not nearly the amount it did on the 12z. Will the next run go further east or west? It has been all over the place.

After having a storm come east on the 12z GFS for the tri-state area, the 18z has it further east. Not as far east, south as the Euro or Icon.

Thank you.

What is a category 3 snowstorm?

Yeah obviously. I mean maybe for the season in the lake effect area sure. But central Ohio? No way.

Active pattern sure, but 60 inches in 24 hours in central Ohio?

That would literally be up to my nose. It is a complete joke, but it gave me a laugh.

Entire tri-state area gets clobbered by an ice storm/sleet storm on the GFS 18z at 270 hours. It shows 16 at the surface, primary low around SC/TN, secondary low forming off the Delmarva coast. Completely laughable. But boggles my mind on how these models come up with this stuff.

I am with you on that bet. But someone will take the over on the snowfall, under on temps, and one day they will get that huge payout.

There is that weenie model that we would all love to see. Maybe the low a tad further east to avoid any mixing issues along the twin forks, south shore of LI. Likelihood of this 276 hour model being correct? Very low. Show it to me again when it is within 5 days, and it will get me interested in it. bring those big snow totals further east and you will get a lot of snow weenies very excited. Even if this is for 360 hours out. :)

Will all that cold air, with the accompanying big high pressure system suppress everything south, with just a few light snow events via clippers coming thru, or will we squeeze in a system to ride up the coast? Stay tuned.

Any model is going to have a greater degree of error past 5 days than in the short term. So many different pieces need to fall in to place to get a huge snowstorm for the big cities in the Atlantic corridor. The Greenland block needs to be in just the right spot. EPO, NAO, AO, PNAall set up just right. MJO in the right phase. Not too strong of a high coming down from Canada. Anything out of place and that big storm doesn't form or hit. This is why I try not to get excited about anything past 5 days, no matter which model is showing something.

Any snow piles that I had left are being washed away this evening. I expect them all to be gone by morning. Ready for a fresh snow.

The next model doesn't really show this classic Miller A. Nor does the one after that. Typical for systems a week out IMHO.

That feels like a typical January thaw.

I think what a lot of people here forget that you need everything to come together perfectly to get a big snowstorm for the coastal corridor. Cold air in place, storm diving down to the gulf of mexico, picking up moisture, coming up the coast. Or energy from Canada merging with a coastal system to throw snow back in to the big cities (eg Miller A or Miller B systems) It is not easy to get all the pieces in place for a 12"+ system. More likely we are going to get clipper type systems with light amounts, or that might get energized a bit as they approach the coast to give us systems that give us 2" - 8" of snow. Not to mention that all of the models have greater degree of error the further out they try to predict. You get a model showing a huge coastal system on one run, and on the next it is suppressed way to the south.

Only snow left by me is the piles left by the snow plows cleaning out the parking lots.

It is gone on the 18z.

I am probably mixing it up then with a different winter.

Power plants are expensive to operate, no surprise they sold them off. IIRC 1996 had snow on the ground for almost all winter. I remember my street being snowpacked, with just ruts where car tires went thru, until late February. This big blizzard was tough to dig out from because of what you mentioned, intensity dropped off a bit, then ramped up more. Even with going out there every couple of hours, it was a lot of back breaking shoveling, just because there was so much of it.

Quadrantids meteor showers are about peak right now.

I am surprised at how many changes we see over North America we see, when the Greenland block weakens a bit, but is in place until at least the 19th as per the models.

How well insulated is your home? Poor insulation can really drive up the amount of oil/gas/electric you use to heat your home.

The 9th? Are any other models or runs supporting this look yet?