Wannabehippie
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Everything posted by Wannabehippie
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Fred just won't have enough time to get to hurricane strength. Still a strong TS is nothing to sneeze at. With sustained winds at 60MPH, stronger gusts, possible tornadoes spinning up, flooding rains.
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Very lopsided right now due to that persistent shear.
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Center still not under that deep convection
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Only thing that is probably keeping Fred from deepening quickly is that persistent shear. You can see the well defined LLC, but the convection is to the east of it.
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The convection is trying to wrap around what appears to be the LLC, but that ULL is still causing the convection to be displaced. It is like every time some wraps around, it gets blown to the east.
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How well has the HWRF handled Fred so far?
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How much it will redevelop after it goes over Hispaniola will depend entirely on if there is any shear once it clears the island. The waters are still pretty warm out there, even with Fred stirring things up. But you can have temps in the 90s, if there is shear to tear it apart, it won't develop IMHO.
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Fred is such a mess, I don't think you can call anything involved with it 'banding'
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One is probably the LLC, the other the MLC, as there is a lot of shear going on.
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So. where exactly is the closed LLC of Fred at?
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I don't care if the GoM waters are as warm as hell, if that shear doesn't get out of the way, Fred won't be able to do any rapid intensification.
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NHC still has it right along the coast of Cuba, or just inland. LLC and MLC definitely not lined up. Once it clears Cuba airspace we will get a better idea of what is going on as the hurricane hunters head back in. Mission from earlier today
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Who wants to break it to Turtle that the thunderstorms he is seeing is more likely from the ULL in the GoM, than from Fred which still looks like a disorganized mess. (even if there is a big blow up of convection south of Cuba, well away from the LLC.)
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LLC still seems to be along the northern coast of Cuba.
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I wonder if potential Grace will get torn apart like Fred did if this course going right over Hispaniola holds true.
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Hispaniola will see mudslides, flooding, especially on the Haiti side. The mountains on that side have been denuded of trees for the most part, unlike on the DR side.
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That is 11 days out. Lots of time for path, intensity predictions to change. Let me know when it has this within 5 days.
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LLC is running parallel to the northern coast of Cuba, the convection is all displaced to the south.
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Check where Hurricane Josh is setting up shop. He has a nose for where storms are coming onshore.
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upper lows to the NW and NE of Fred, so upper air is not all that favorable right now for any rapid intensifying.
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There must be crazy rainfall rates right now in Hispaniola.
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All JB cares about is hype to boost page clicks.
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Yanks have been playing in a steady rain all night long. I can't believe they never went in to another rain delay, after a delayed start due to lightning in the area.
