ChescoWx

Go check it out under the appropriate thread - thanks again PSU!

The data is now in the appropriate thread - now let the good folks here go back to their autumn obs!! thanks!

Nope! The raw September trend for 1895–2025 is +0.13°F per decade, and it is not statistically significant (p ≈ 0.10; 95% range −0.03 to +0.29°F per decade). Series °F/decade 95% range p Raw September, 1895–2025 +0.13 ±0.16 0.10, not significant

the altered data adds 60% more warming than the actual data.....

The above data is like most other places sufferring from NCEI altered temperatures which as is usually the case warms the past and chills the current. Below is actual vs altered data for beautiful Yellow Medicine County!! The graph shows 1895–2025: the NCEI adjusted line is in red and the raw station data in blue, each with its trend line. The trend is +0.19°F/decade for NCEI and +0.12°F/decade for raw, so NCEI shows about 60% more warming than the raw data - call me stunned!!

If you got the data from NCEI like below it most certainly is altered adjusted data!

Through October 22 - 2026 is warmer than usual but not close to a record. County mean for Oct 1–22: 58.9°F, from 19 stations. That makes it the 34th-warmest of 139 Oct 1–22 periods that had at least 2 stations reporting. The anomaly composite ranks it lower, 53rd of 139 (+1.0°F against each station’s own long-term mean). The gap is mostly because the network has changed over time, which the composite corrects for, so the naive rank flatters 2026 a little. Compared with recent years, it’s warmer than 2019–2020 and 2022–2025, but behind 2016 (59.3°F), 2017 (62.0°F) and 2021 (62.4°F). The record is out of reach. The warmest Oct 1–22 on record is 1941 at 64.7°F, then 2007 (63.8°F) and 1914 (63.0°F). Getting into the top 10 would take about 61°F, more than 2°F above where we are now.

Psst! you may not realize but those are altered adjusted temperatures not the actual temps!

That great deep data is indeed publically available for all to use with the detailed data sources for support and verification. I hope it helps! Thanks for the support Cobalt!

By the way love the page! good luck I am stunned how many folks follow my FB site!

Sorry to offend you psu! Take care!!

For those on Team Snow while rare we have had significant snowstorms as early as October. Below are our top such snowstorms. The biggest one occurred just 15 years ago back in 2011. On the website https://chescowx.com/top-snowfalls-by-month/ you do this for all months and even drill down into each storm to see the individual amounts across the area.

Below is factual real climate data for Chester County PA that shows no statistical warming at all....for more of these and to not clog up this forum - have at it over on the Climate Change section of this great forum - thanks!

For those on Team Snow while rare we have had significant snowstorms as early as October. Below are our top such snowstorms. The biggest one occurred just 15 years ago back in 2011. On the website https://chescowx.com/top-snowfalls-by-month/ you do this for all months and even drill down into each storm to see the individual amounts across the area.

I address all of this and more over under climate change where this belongs...to not clog up the good folks here with non observation stuff! Thanks!!

Today we should see highs from upper 50's in ridge locations to the low 60's in valley spots. The NWS has issued a freeze watch for tonight with temperatures near freezing or below in valley locations to just above freezing on the ridge tops. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal this weekend before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 4 degrees above normal. We look to stay dry through next Friday according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 154 years ago today back in 1872 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 2.62" of rain at Pocopson. This was an unnamed tropical storm which tracked within about 50 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from upper 50's in ridge locations to the low 60's in valley spots. The NWS has issued a freeze watch for tonight with temperatures near freezing or below in valley locations to just above freezing on the ridge tops. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal this weekend before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 4 degrees above normal. We look to stay dry through next Friday according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 154 years ago today back in 1872 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 2.62" of rain at Pocopson. This was an unnamed tropical storm which tracked within about 50 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. Temperatures will fall from the low 50's at midnight to lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's by morning. Our stretch of beautiful autumnal weather continues through at least the next week! With little to no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal through Sunday before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 3 degrees above normal. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. Temperatures will fall from the low 50's at midnight to lows in the upper 30's to mid 40's by morning. Our stretch of beautiful autumnal weather continues through at least the next week! With little to no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will run about 5 degrees below normal through Sunday before we return to near normal by Monday, but by Tuesday we warm to about 3 degrees above normal. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

Over the last 25 years, Since 2001 PHL Airport warming is statistically clear in both its raw and NOAA-adjusted records. By comparison here in the nearby philly burbs of Chester County PA our warming is less or about 40% smaller than the PHL heat island. The warming across Chester County has not been statistically significant using either the raw or NCEI adjusted data over the last 25 years! The gap between the two (+0.34°F/decade) is consistent with an urban/airport effect. One more point of interest: NOAA’s data adjustment only trims PHL’s trend slightly (0.86 → 0.78). So, importantly whatever UHI warming that is in the airport record over this window, the homogenization is removing very little of it!

Over the last 25 years, Since 2001 PHL Airports warming is statistically clear in both its raw and NOAA-adjusted records. By comparison Chester County’s warming is about 40% smaller and not statistically significant using either the raw or NCEI adjusted data. The gap between the two (+0.34°F/decade) is consistent with an urban/airport effect. One more point of interest: NOAA’s data adjustment only trims PHL’s trend slightly (0.86 → 0.78). So, importantly whatever UHI warming that is in the airport record over this window, the homogenization is removing very little of it!

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to low 40's. It should be one of the better weather weeks of the year with almost no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will be near normal through Friday but this weekend we drop to about 5 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Monday. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to low 40's. It should be one of the better weather weeks of the year with almost no chance of rain. By Sunday morning we should see lows in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Temperatures will be near normal through Friday but this weekend we drop to about 5 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Monday. Of note 82 years ago today back in 1944 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.63" of rain at Phoenixville 1E. This was the remnants of an unnamed hurricane which tracked within about 120 miles of the county.

I have added some additionals stations within 3 miles of the Chester County border to enhance our climate data. The support and rationale is included in our latest study on the website. Thanks! https://chescowx.com/chester-county-area-3-mile-rule/

I have added some additionals stations within 3 miles of the Chester County border to enhance our climate data. The support and rationale is included in our latest study on the website. Thanks! https://chescowx.com/chester-county-area-3-mile-rule/