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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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That is simpy an equal chance outlook... far from a forecast. The extended Euro and GFS models paint a normal to below month - not saying there won't be a warmer week in the mix.
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You clearly keep making up arbitrary data. Let's dig into another station you mention above - West Chester PA. So why was West Chester also chilled by between 1.0 and 3.7 degrees each and every year for the 103 years between 1880 and 1982? Chilling the past remains the only clear man made climate changes to our data.
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The warmest temperature across the county yesterday was, of course, at the Brandywine Airport in West Chester at 86.0 degrees. Most spots saw temperatures between 81 and 84 yesterday. Today should be a degree or two warmer and will be the warmest day for a while. The pattern turns a bit unsettled later tomorrow and through the weekend. Not a washout at all but some showers are most likely on Saturday. Shower chances appear to increase again by next Tuesday. Our relatively wet pattern looks to continue with no foreseeable heat in our future. In fact most models show near normal to slightly below average temperatures through the 4th of July.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
The warmest temperature across the county yesterday was, of course, at the Brandywine Airport in West Chester at 86.0 degrees. Most spots saw temperatures between 81 and 84 yesterday. Today should be a degree or two warmer and will be the warmest day for a while. The pattern turns a bit unsettled later tomorrow and through the weekend. Not a washout at all but some showers are most likely on Saturday. Shower chances appear to increase again by next Tuesday. Our relatively wet pattern looks to continue with no foreseeable heat in our future. In fact most models show near normal to slightly below average temperatures through the 4th of July. -
Your problem is you have zero proof any of those moves required a 2 to 4 degree temperature adjustment which is what took place. As a simple example (small sample size but enough to be clearly directional) I have analyzed the difference between the relatively rural Coatesville 2W at 660 ft ASL vs Thorndale 290 feet above sea level and in the middle of a sprawling development but only a few nautical miles apart. Even a move from the relatively rural Coatesville 2W to an suburban sprawl development at almost 400 ft asl lower does not result in anywhere close to the magnitude of changes the NCEI tries to apply.
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A nice couple of days on tap across the area with highs reaching up into the low 80's today and the mid 80's tomorrow. Tomorrow should be the warmest day of the week before we cool back to near normal with shower chances increasing by Friday night into Saturday.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
A nice couple of days on tap across the area with highs reaching up into the low 80's today and the mid 80's tomorrow. Tomorrow should be the warmest day of the week before we cool back to near normal with shower chances increasing by Friday night into Saturday. -
So for which stations and years did you eliminate the raw data in your efforts to subtract the constant? Below is the actual raw data for comparison to your altered data chart. The raw actual average temperatures have still never been able to eclipse the warming Chester County experienced way back in 1931. Minor cyclical warming is as always all the real raw data shows....
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That chart does NOT equal the raw data. You continue to simply change past history by making random baseless changes to readings below any available station in the entire county. Or just eliminating select years of data. You simply are showing made up degrees of chilling and warming without any actual support for the degree adjustment that varied with each and every year. Where is the station in the county you are trying to adjust down and or up to???
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And now voila we have the altered data....now there is that warming post chilling alterations!!
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Funny how even the entire USA needed to be chilled back in the 1930's thru 1950's. There appears to have been no warming at all during the month of May during the last 100 years....welp unless we you know chill the past data. See the below altered May data vs the raw.....same story not just in Chester County PA
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Below is the June Actual National Weather Service Average June Average Raw Data Temperature vs. NOAA/NCEI Altered Temperature Data. Of note without the altered data June's here in Chester County have a slightly cooler trend line. After applying the adjustments we return to a warming trend. Funny how it always works that way.....
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Below is the June Actual National Weather Service Average June Average Raw Data Temperature vs. NOAA/NCEI Altered Temperature Data. Of note without the altered data June's here in Chester County have a slightly cooler trend line. After applying the adjustments we return to a warming trend.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Below is the June Actual National Weather Service Average June Average Raw Data Temperature vs. NOAA/NCEI Altered Temperature Data. Of note without the altered data June's here in Chester County have a slightly cooler trend line. After applying the adjustments we return to a warming trend. -
Below is the May Climate Summary for Chester County PA. We finished with a below average temperature of 61.5 our 30 year average May temperature is 61.9 degrees. This was the 61st chilliest May with 132 years of records. It was a very wet month with an average rainfall across the county of 7.70" this is the 4th highest average county rainfall since records began in 1894. The climate summary is detailed below with the warmest temperature at Phoenixville on May 2nd and the coldest at Warwick Township on May 20th.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Below is the May Climate Summary for Chester County PA. We finished with a below average temperature of 61.5 our 30 year average May temperature is 61.9 degrees. This was the 61st chilliest May with 132 years of records. It was a very wet month with an average rainfall across the county of 7.70" this is the 4th highest average county rainfall since records began in 1894. The climate summary is detailed below with the warmest temperature at Phoenixville on May 2nd and the coldest at Warwick Township on May 20th. -
Our first 2 days of June have featured temperatures almost 10 degrees below normal levels for the start of June. The good news is this should turn around starting today with temperatures reaching 80 degrees in some of the lower elevation spots across the area. By tomorrow through the rest of the work week we should all see temperatures in the low to mid 80's. Sunny skies most of the week before rain chances increase by Friday night into Saturday. We clear up but turn a bit cooler by Sunday.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Our first 2 days of June have featured temperatures almost 10 degrees below normal levels for the start of June. The good news is this should turn around starting today with temperatures reaching 80 degrees in some of the lower elevation spots across the area. By tomorrow through the rest of the work week we should all see temperatures in the low to mid 80's. Sunny skies most of the week before rain chances increase by Friday night into Saturday. We clear up but turn a bit cooler by Sunday. -
We had our 2nd straight morning with low temperatures in the 40's across much of the area. This is the first time since 2017 that we have seen back-to-back days with lows that chilly. Today will be our 15th below normal day over the last 16 days. The good news is we will finally warm back to normal tomorrow and then we will move several degrees above normal by Wednesday. The warmest day of the week should be Thursday with highs in the mid 80's across most of the Western Philly burbs. The Philly heat island should see their 1st 90+ day this week. Our next shower chances look to be by Friday PM into Saturday.
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2025 Obs/Discussion
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
We had our 2nd straight morning with low temperatures in the 40's across much of the area. This is the first time since 2017 that we have seen back-to-back days with lows that chilly. Today will be our 15th below normal day over the last 16 days. The good news is we will finally warm back to normal tomorrow and then we will move several degrees above normal by Wednesday. The warmest day of the week should be Thursday with highs in the mid 80's across most of the Western Philly burbs. The Philly heat island should see their 1st 90+ day this week. Our next shower chances look to be by Friday PM into Saturday.