ChescoWx

So true! Tomorrow we set the record snow futility streak in Chester County with our 662nd consecutive day without recording 1" of snow.....

Elevation FTW

This is why I suspect the models are picking up on the impact of a little elevation above the fall line in some of the model snow forecasts. Elevation can make quite the difference in marginal storms. I have often seen my area get near 10:1 ratios above 650 ft asl while down at 350 ft it is mainly white rain

If I were in the LV to SC PA I would be real confident you have a plowable event in your future....for those of us in the more southern climes....time will tell!!

Wait till the Friday 0z NAM pulls the snow geese all back in.......

The latest models look like the classic storms of my youth in Philly. 1" to 3" in Philly and 3" to 5" N and W

At hour 108 low over NNC.....

Again a bit more realistic in my view to use the ensemble means

Of course - as it gets closer I prefer the positive snow depth view....

Very similar runs between the GFS and Canadian

The NBM not a bad place to start IMHO at this distance from the event

Most spots across the county fell below freezing either last night or overnight today. Our first below freezing reading since December 23rd. The first week of the new year should be mainly dry through Friday and seasonably chilly. The coldest day will be Friday when temps may struggle to pass freezing in some of the higher spots in the county. Records for today: High 62 (2000) / Low minus 7 (1899) / Rain 2.09" (1948) / Snow 9.0" (1925)

Most spots across the county fell below freezing either last night or overnight today. Our first below freezing reading since December 23rd. The first week of the new year should be mainly dry through Friday and seasonably chilly. The coldest day will be Friday when temps may struggle to pass freezing in some of the higher spots in the county. Records for today: High 62 (2000) / Low minus 7 (1899) / Rain 2.09" (1948) / Snow 9.0" (1925)

Ensemble runs are what I focus on this far out....

With the right track I have seen it snow with water temps in the low 50's.....

In looking at the GFS vs the Canadian - the GFS has more of a Miller B set up with a center jump to the coast while the Canadian has a classic Miller A but a very similar track to the GFS following the center jump...

I suspect we will see a big pick up in followers on FB this week? Below is my latest. "Of course just 6 hours later some big changes on the models. The Canadian now depicts plenty of model snow for the area (NOT A FORECAST)....while the GFS now shows a quick change from snow to rain with little accumulation (NOT A FORECAST). This is why it is critical to take any individual model run with a grain of salt. A professional forecaster will only incorporate these into a forecast when we begin to see both consistency between model runs and model suites. The main message here is there is growing potential for some sort of storm along the east coast next weekend. An early professional forecast from the NWS is still at least 4 or 5 days away. Notice that the difference between the earlier GFS and this run is only about 50 miles in track of the storm - but that would have big implications on type of precipitation across our area."

Happy New Year's Eve Day to all!! It should be a mostly cloudy seasonably chilly final day of 2023. We could ring in the New Year overnight and toward morning with a few light snow showers. Any very small accumulation amounts would be in areas over 700 ft ASL. A cooling trend looks to take place as we move through the week with the next chance of any snow or rain showers toward Thursday. A larger potential event may impact the area next weekend. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low minus 5 (1917) / Rain 1.68" (1906) / Snow 5.0" (1970)