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ChescoWx

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Everything posted by ChescoWx

  1. ChescoWx
    I have often thought this variable is often overstated. I take a look at 925mb temps above the surface to see if there is a modeled warm layer coming in. You can see below this is about the greatest inroads of above 0c (at least on the GFS model) That said it is just a model!!
  2. ChescoWx
    I think that is honestly a solid forecast from this vantage point!!
  3. ChescoWx
    So true! Tomorrow we set the record snow futility streak in Chester County with our 662nd consecutive day without recording 1" of snow.....
  4. ChescoWx
    Elevation FTW
  5. ChescoWx
    This is why I suspect the models are picking up on the impact of a little elevation above the fall line in some of the model snow forecasts. Elevation can make quite the difference in marginal storms. I have often seen my area get near 10:1 ratios above 650 ft asl while down at 350 ft it is mainly white rain
  6. ChescoWx
    If I were in the LV to SC PA I would be real confident you have a plowable event in your future....for those of us in the more southern climes....time will tell!!
  7. ChescoWx
  8. ChescoWx
    Wait till the Friday 0z NAM pulls the snow geese all back in.......
  9. ChescoWx
    The latest models look like the classic storms of my youth in Philly. 1" to 3" in Philly and 3" to 5" N and W
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  11. ChescoWx
    At hour 108 low over NNC.....
  12. ChescoWx
    Again a bit more realistic in my view to use the ensemble means
  13. ChescoWx
  14. ChescoWx
    Of course - as it gets closer I prefer the positive snow depth view....
  15. ChescoWx
    Very similar runs between the GFS and Canadian
  16. ChescoWx
    The NBM not a bad place to start IMHO at this distance from the event
  17. ChescoWx
    Most spots across the county fell below freezing either last night or overnight today. Our first below freezing reading since December 23rd. The first week of the new year should be mainly dry through Friday and seasonably chilly. The coldest day will be Friday when temps may struggle to pass freezing in some of the higher spots in the county. Records for today: High 62 (2000) / Low minus 7 (1899) / Rain 2.09" (1948) / Snow 9.0" (1925)
  18. ChescoWx
    Most spots across the county fell below freezing either last night or overnight today. Our first below freezing reading since December 23rd. The first week of the new year should be mainly dry through Friday and seasonably chilly. The coldest day will be Friday when temps may struggle to pass freezing in some of the higher spots in the county. Records for today: High 62 (2000) / Low minus 7 (1899) / Rain 2.09" (1948) / Snow 9.0" (1925)
  19. ChescoWx
  20. ChescoWx
    Ensemble runs are what I focus on this far out....
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  24. ChescoWx
    With the right track I have seen it snow with water temps in the low 50's.....
  25. ChescoWx
    In looking at the GFS vs the Canadian - the GFS has more of a Miller B set up with a center jump to the coast while the Canadian has a classic Miller A but a very similar track to the GFS following the center jump...
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