ChescoWx

75% IP now with snow still mixed in - just measure 0.5" of snow/IP as of 745pm in East Nantmeal Township

Snowing heavily here in NW Chesco as the change line approaches....a man wiser than me said you have to smell the rain to get the heavy snow!! Temp down to 32.0 all surfaces covered will measure when it changes over shortly not sure if it will be IP or ZR - if IP then we continue to measure snow....

Snowing moderately here in NW Chesco Temp 33.0 DP 28.7

Snow picking up here in NW Chesco with a temp of 33.2 DP 27.7

Wxsim with 18z data increased snow and ice a bit and delayed changeover till 1230am Tonight: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain, and rain likely in the evening, then a mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow likely after midnight. Low 29, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 22 to 32. Wind east-southeast around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 3 and 5 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation around 2 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.6 inches. Sunday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Breezy. High 40, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind west-northwest around 9 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the morning, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 28 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation mostly around half an inch. Sunday night: Fair to partly cloudy in the evening, becoming fair after midnight. Breezy and cold. Low 9. Wind chill ranging from -6 to 18. Wind west-northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 27 mph.

After the brief flakeage just cloudy now 34.2 but DP continues to drop now down to low for the day of 24.4

Light Snow just started here in NW Chester County PA Temp 34.3 DP 25.3

True but it is only the mean...I still like our chances at a well above normal year it will only take 2 big storms and we could be there....

Winter of yore incoming....

Honestly it has been an average winter for this area so far - through today we have 10.2" of snow only 1.6" below normal. The upcoming pattern is very cold for the next month....as I always say give me the cold the storms will work out.....patience all on this forum will end up with a well above normal snow year....keep the faith!!

Latest Wxsim Forecast - with 6z data - very close to my NWS Point and Click which also has temps rising above freezing around midnight - will be watching those DPs today - kind of expect this to trend warmer with very little snow or ice chances.. Today: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the afternoon. High 35. Wind southeast around 3 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about half an inch. Tonight: Dense overcast. A mix of sleet, snow, and rain likely in the evening, then a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow likely after midnight. Low 28, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 32. Wind southeast around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 3 and 5 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation around 2 inches. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Sunday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. Rain likely in the morning, then a chance of a mix of rain, sleet, and snow in the afternoon. High 42, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind southwest around 6 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the morning, becoming northwest around 15 mph, gusting to 27 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected.

On another site a NWS forecaster is wondering why the NWS have not extended the WSW down into Chester County....assuming the point and click is correct that we have 2" to 5" of snow and then 0.3" of ice with temps never going above freezing....

Latest Wxsim with 18z GFS/NAM data for NW Chester County is nowhere near as wintery/icy as my NWS point and click which sees no rain - all ice for my area....I am siding with WXSIM on this one....but still not good Rundown - Snow arrives by 2PM / Heavy Snow at 9pm with 6.5" on the ground / IP through 11pm with another 1" of IP - for total snow accumulation of 7.5" by 11pm - then ZR from 11pm till 2am with 0.75" of ZR and then another inch of rain before ending at 10am before temps plummet

Latest Wxsim with 12z models still showing a front end thump with a little earlier arrival of snow for NW Chester County PA - here is the rundown Light snow arrives by 130pm / Mod Snow at 3pm / Heavy Snow at 5pm continuing thru 830pm with 5.0" of snow by that time. Mix of Snow and heavy sleet through 1130 pm with 2" to 3" of sleet (Total snow/sleet 7-8") before a brief change to ZR and then rain by 1230am continuing till 7am with 1.00" of rain with temps reaching 37 before starting to fall late AM

Hi Steve - disagree big time on this. The Phillies have already upgraded significantly IMHO at 4 positions this offseason. LF/SS and 1B (with the move of Hoskins here) and Bullpen They need one more big bat and 1 more starting pitcher and they will be contenders for sure this year

My NWS Point and Click for NW Chester County PA has reduced the snow and sleet forecast to only 2 to 3" of snow and then to rain with no ice accumulation....of course my local Wxsim program with 6z GFS and NAM has increased both the snow/sleet and ZR...assuming the NWS used the 0z NAM Here is the Wxsim breakdown Snow Saturday afternoon becoming moderate by 3pm and Heavy by 4pm - transition to a heavy mix of snow/IP at 6pm with already 3.0" of snow - Heavy Sleet from 630pm through 11 pm with total snow/IP accumulation of 6" to 8". ZR from 11pm - 2am with up to 0.5" of ice accretion before turning to rain - another 0.75" falls as plain rain before a brief change to snow before ending.

East Nantmeal Township 0.9" of snow

Steady snow here in NW Chesco with all surfaces covered temp at 28.2

Light snow for the last hour or so but nothing more than heavy flurries - very dry air Temp 29.0 DP 18.0

I think it is more like 3 or 4" followed by a quick transition to ZR but with only slightly below freezing temps and steady rain it will not accrete that impressively - just my 2 cents

Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County PA with 18z data from NAM/GFS trended slightly colder as temps now only get as high as 33 degrees here is the rundown Snow by 2pm Saturday S+ by 3pm mixing sleet by 4pm some heavy sleet through 6pm with 4" to 6" of snow/sleet accumulation before a turn to ZR which continues till 1130pm with another 0.90" falling as ZR - temps than rise to just above freezing thru 8am with 0.40" of rain and 0.5" of ice accreteion before a mix with sleet and snow and then all snow by 9am with another 1" of snow before ending

Wxsim updated with 12z data remained nearly the same as the 6z GFS/NAM for NW Chesco (similar temps/less precip - added a little snow at end) S+ by 3pm Saturday with Heavy IP by 6pm - total snow/sleet 3" to 4" - Temps stay below freezing till near midnight with 1.36" falling as frozen. Than another inch or so of rain before changing to snow before ending Still thinking south folks like me will not do as well as those further north and of course west like Steve etc.

Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows snow by 9pm tonight with 2.0" before ending by 6am tomorrow. Then Snow arrives Saturday afternoon becoming moderate to heavy becoming heavy sleet by 6pm with 3.0" to 5.0" of Snow/IP before changing to ZR by 9:30pm - ZR till midnight with 0.40" falling as ZR. Then temps warm above freezing at midnight with heavy rain falling through 9am with another 1.70" of rain before ending around 9am Sunday morning

This really looks like one of those January 1994 Ice storms. Areas further southeast like NW Chesco and KOP were deep into the ZR while areas just 25 miles west and north were snow. I think the 12z Euro means paint this scenario very well and would not be surprised to see something like this....but of course it can and will change before Saturday eve.

Unfortunately it is just an IMBY model that simply combines the GFS and NAM for my exact location....check out their website - they can customize for you