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ChescoWx

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  1. ChescoWx
    All about radiational cooling - elevation made a big difference over just 2 miles around here. I could go no lower than 32.1 while 2 miles away but 300 feet lower at Marsh Creek hit 23.1
  2. ChescoWx
    Big differences of around 10 degrees in low temperatures across the County this morning. Lower elevation spots below 500ft ASL were well down into the 20's while some higher spots were no lower than the mid-30's. Beautiful weather on tap both today and tomorrow with slightly above normal high temps of just past 50 degrees. Some rain is possible on Friday but not a wash out. A better chance of rain is Saturday night into Sunday morning. The record high for today is 73 degrees set back in 1931. The record low was the 11 degrees set in 1989. Daily rain record is the 1.30" from 1961. Our daily snow record was the 2.9" that fell today back in 1989.
  3. ChescoWx
    I am really liking the look of where the models are trending (not quite there yet) I really suspect models will begin to better see more and more high latitude blocking and/or amplification of those western ridges in the next 2 to 4 week time frames. This should then result in another cold weather outbreak across the east....but this time we should indeed see snow threats increasing as we move later into the first week of December. Buckle up....
  4. ChescoWx
    White Christmas anyone? What can go wrong with only 3 weeks to go?? 2009 redux - Book it!!
  5. ChescoWx
    Below is my attempt at a Winter Forecast for Chester County PA. I identified 12 analog years that had similar average temperature departures for October (~2 degrees below normal) and November (~2 degrees above normal). Ten (10) of the twelve (12) featured below normal temperatures - with 8 of the 12 years having above normal snowfall. The coldest analog season was 1977-78, the snowiest was the winter of 2009-10 when we were buried under 86.7" of snow. The warmest was 1948-49, the least snowiest 1930-31. Overall, I predict below normal temperatures for December, January and February, but above normal March temperatures. Seasonal snowfall will be above average at 47" vs our 36" of average snowfall featuring above average snowfall for all winter months with the exception of March Below is the chart with the actual readings for the analog years. Let me know your thoughts and if any questions let me know. Wish me luck and get those snowblowers ready!!
  6. ChescoWx
    I know EPAWX has also moved away from any seasonal forecasts.....that said I am working on my own winter forecast today....It should be just as good as my past ones!!
  7. ChescoWx
    Looking more and more likely we reload into another cold pattern with multiple snow chances between the 6th and 22nd of December. Models starting to come around to this idea....
  8. ChescoWx
    A nice couple days through Thanksgiving. Temps moderating to near normal. Some rain possible later Friday into Saturday AM. More rain looks to arrive by Sunday AM - Sunday now looks like the wetter of the 2 days. Our record high for today is 72 degrees from 1931. The record low is 13 degrees from 1964. Daily rain record is the 1.86" that fell in 1991. The daily snow record is the 1.7" that fell back in 1989.
  9. ChescoWx
    I will take the hard over on snow totals this year....
  10. ChescoWx
    We almost set a new record low this morning...but just missed with a low here in East Nantmeal of 18.7 (17.0 record from 1951) After a couple more below normal temperature days we should see a return to normal temps by Wednesday and lasting right through the holiday weekend. Average high temps for the last week of November are around 50 degrees. The record high for today is 76 degrees set back in 1900. The record low is 17.0 from 1951. The daily rain mark is 2.29" from 1952 and our record daily snowfall is 1.5" from 2008.
  11. ChescoWx
    We did indeed set a record lowest maximum temperature for today of 32.1 besting the previous record of 33 degrees set back in 1984 (records go back till 1894). This is the earliest sub freezing day since November 13, 2019 which represented the 2nd earliest sub freezing day in Chester County history behind only November 11, 1987 which is the earliest sub-freezing day on record for the County.
  12. ChescoWx
    An unseasonably and possibly record breaking cold day on tap today. The record lowest maximum temperature for today is the 33 degrees set back in 1984 (records go back till 1894). We have a chance to break that as our high so far today was the 31.7 reading at 1:11am. We could also come close to the record low for tomorrow morning. That record low is 17 degrees set in 1951. The NWS forecasts a low of 17 degrees tomorrow. Temps will slowly warm this week getting us back to just about normal for Thanksgiving Day. Rain is likely by Thanksgiving Night into black Friday. The record high for today is 75 degrees from 1975. The record low for today is 16 degrees from 1951. The daily rain record is 1.80" from 1952. The daily snow record is 0.8" set in 1937.
  13. ChescoWx
    This morning's low of 24.7 is the coldest reading since the 24.0 low temperature back on March 30th. Most spots in the county will stay in the 30's today and fall back into the low 20's tonight. Tomorrow will be colder with some spots barely making it to freezing for high temperatures. We will start a slow warming trend starting Monday with temps getting back to near normal in the upper 40's by Thanksgiving Day. Our next chance of rain will be on Thanksgiving night. Our record high for today is 74 degrees set back in 1913. The record low was 12 degrees from 1924. Daily rain record is 1.74" from 1988. The daily snow record is the 3.0" that fell today back in 1955.
  14. ChescoWx
    Snow squalling temp is 34.8 my program on the cam is not correct
  15. ChescoWx
    If this were to verify could be some icy spots this evening across Chesco and NE bound across our area
  16. ChescoWx
    Increasing clouds this afternoon with temps reaching around 40 degrees - this is about 10 degrees below normal. It does look like some snow showers or even a heavier snow squall will be possible moving from west to east across Chester County between 4pm and 7pm this evening. Any heavier bands could put down a quick coating to 1" of snow - this could make roads slick in spots - so be careful if out and about this evening. Even colder weather will follow for this weekend. It appears some higher spots in the county may not get above freezing on Sunday with lows near 20 degrees by Monday morning. Our record high for today is 77 degrees from way back in 1896. The record low is 12 degrees set in 1924. The daily rainfall record is 1.21" from 1929. Our daily snowfall record is 1.0" from 1955.
  17. ChescoWx
    A couple light flurries have been around this morning. Breezy and colder today. Our temperatures will be staying below normal till warming to near normal as we approach the Thanksgiving Holiday. The record high for today is 76 degrees from way back in 1896. The record low is 9 degrees from 1933. The daily rain record is a whopping 3.40" from 1935. The daily snowfall record is 1.0" from 1980.
  18. ChescoWx
    We ended up with 0.99" of rain since last evening with 0.11" falling since midnight. We should be clearing out today and getting mostly sunny by late this morning. Today will be the mildest day for a while with temps reaching the upper 40's. The next week will feature temps well below normal for mid to late November and also dry. We should warm back to near normal by Thanksgiving weekend before slipping back a little below normal to end the month of November. The record high for today is 73 degrees set in 1990. Our record low is just 7 degrees in 1908 - this was the earliest single digit reading in Chester County history. The daily rain record is 2.08" from 1926. The daily snow record is the 1.3" that fell just 4 years ago in 2018.
  19. ChescoWx
    Started as sleet rain mix here in the Chester County but now as temps continue to drop a bit we are seeing some big wet snowflakes mixing in with the rain. Temp is down to 35.3
  20. ChescoWx
    Hopefully not the high point for the wintry precip fans on this site!!
  21. ChescoWx
    Our first wintry precipitation of the winter season has just begun here in East Nantmeal Township in the philly burbs. Light sleet with a temp at 38.5 degrees. Might see a few wet snow flakes mixing in from time to time before a change to plain rain later.
  22. ChescoWx
    Some low to mid-20's in some of the lower spots across Chester County this morning. With upper 20's in the relatively higher spots. Cloudy today with a mixture of light rain and some wet snow mixed in especially in some of the elevations over 600 ft asl across the county by late today and early this evening. The just plain rain later with between 0.5" to 1.0" of rain before it ends by dawn tomorrow. Continued well below normal readings will continue till about Thanksgiving. We may see a little warm up around the holiday weekend before it chills down again to close out November. The record high for today is 78 degrees set in 1993. Our record low is 16 degrees in 1905. Daily rain record is 2.18" from 1914. The daily snow record is just 0.5" from way back in 1906.
  23. ChescoWx
    Our 1st of many below normal days between now and Thanksgiving begins today. Low's this AM did reach freezing (32.5) here in East Nantmeal. Some lower spots in Southern Chester County reached near 30 degrees this AM. Tonight all spots will see a hard freeze with temps around the middle 20's for lows. If you have any plants hanging on near your house bring them in tonight. Sunny weather all week with the exception of tomorrow night into Wednesday morning when we will see a chilly rain with maybe a couple flakes of snow or sleet pellets mixed in at the start. The record high for today is 74 degrees from 1955. The record low is 14 degrees set in 1920. The daily rainfall record is 1.58" from 1972. Our daily snow record is the 5.0" that fell today in 1908.
  24. ChescoWx
    11 of our first 12 days this month have averaged well (+11.5 degrees) above normal. This is by far the warmest first 12 days to start November in Chester County history. The top 5 warmest prior to 2022 were: 1935 (55.4)/2020 (55.3)/1975 (55.1)/2015 (55.0) and 1946 (54.9). Now after that warm start we will do what the climate likes to do....even things out with a now well below normal stretch of weather over at least the next 2 weeks. Today will likely average above normal only because our high temperature occurred at midnight at 55.1. With the exception of Tuesday night expect below freezing low temperatures across the entire county for the next couple of weeks. We should see rain overspreading the county starting on Tuesday evening....this may start as a little wet snow or sleet in some spots in NW Chester County. It looks like another 0.50" to 1.00" of rain with that system. The record high temperature for today is 78 degrees set in 1902. The record low is 17 degrees set in 1920. The daily rain record is 2.33" set in 1904. The daily snow record occurred just 8 years ago when 1.5" fell in 2014.
  25. ChescoWx
    Latest 12z NAM brings some snow into the forecast area at the end (84 hours) of it's run at 7pm on Tuesday night....
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