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Everything posted by ChescoWx
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
3rd lowest ever in Chesco.... -
Summer average temperature changes by decade for Chester County, Note that West Chester's average summer temp in the 1890's was exactly the same as the first decade of the 2000's. Again a clear warmer - cooler - warmer summer pattern - rinse and repeat but no discernible material trends. The bolded numbers are specifically for West Chester but all of the other stations reported the same trends
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Some areas of frost and even a few freezing temperatures in the lower spots of the county this morning. Below normal temps will continue through this last week of April. Some slight rain chances tomorrow night but rain will be likely by the weekend. Records for today: High 93 (1915) / Low 28 (1922) / Rain 1.50" (1975)
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Some areas of frost and even a few freezing temperatures in the lower spots of the county this morning. Below normal temps will continue through this last week of April. Some slight rain chances tomorrow night but rain will be likely by the weekend. Records for today: High 93 (1915) / Low 28 (1922) / Rain 1.50" (1975) -
It looks like we see below normal temperatures to over the next week to finish out the month of April. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 60's. There could be some patchy frost across lower spots in the county over the next 2 nights. There is a slight chance of showers on Wed night...but a dry work week before rain chances increase for next weekend. Records for today: High 90 (1960) / Low 26 (1931) / Rain 2.40" (1968)
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
It looks like we see below normal temperatures to over the next week to finish out the month of April. Normal highs are in the mid to upper 60's. There could be some patchy frost across lower spots in the county over the next 2 nights. There is a slight chance of showers on Wed night...but a dry work week before rain chances increase for next weekend. Records for today: High 90 (1960) / Low 26 (1931) / Rain 2.40" (1968) -
I assume you mean the 1930's were warmer than the first decade of the 2000's. To clarify the actual coop data from all 4 locations recorded warmer temps in that decade than 7 decades later. Only if you adjust the actual data can you make it look warmer for the 2000-2009 period just the facts Charlie.
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When in doubt tell us what you feel living here for 40 years....I will stick to the actual data that certainly shows a warming trend but nothing we haven't seen before here in the county.
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Well above normal temps for today and tomorrow before some thunderstorms arrive with a cold front tomorrow late afternoon into the evening. We could pick up as much as an inch of much needed rain with these storms. A turn to much cooler and well below normal temps looks to continue for much of the remainder of the month of April. Records for today: High 90 (1976) / Low 24 (1928) / Rain 1.32" (1991)
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Well above normal temps for today and tomorrow before some thunderstorms arrive with a cold front tomorrow late afternoon into the evening. We could pick up as much as an inch of much needed rain with these storms. A turn to much cooler and well below normal temps looks to continue for much of the remainder of the month of April. Records for today: High 90 (1976) / Low 24 (1928) / Rain 1.32" (1991) -
How can you prove bias mitigation with dating starting in 1978? Plus UHA satellite data does NOT measure temperature directly - it can only INFER temperature from the radiances in wavelength bands. I will take the direct temperature measurements!
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The loss of nearly 2/3 of the GHCN network since 1970...of which represented rural stations is another overall big problem and biases the data warm...
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Low spots like Marsh Creek touched the 30's this morning, while higher spots like East Nantmeal could go no lower than the upper 40's. Today will be near 10 degrees above normal in the mid-70's with tomorrow reaching the 80's. Showers should arrive late Saturday with a stretch of below normal temps looking likely next week to close out April and to open up the month of May. Records for today: High 90 (1976) / Low 23 (1926) / Rain 1.67" (1940) and Snow 2.2" (1983)
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Low spots like Marsh Creek touched the 30's this morning, while higher spots like East Nantmeal could go no lower than the upper 40's. Today will be near 10 degrees above normal in the mid-70's with tomorrow reaching the 80's. Showers should arrive late Saturday with a stretch of below normal temps looking likely next week to close out April and to open up the month of May. Records for today: High 90 (1976) / Low 23 (1926) / Rain 1.67" (1940) and Snow 2.2" (1983) -
Satellite record....do we have that data back to the 1880's??
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Per Charlie "The coop stations have decade-to-decade changes which are much larger than the climate trend, which makes finding the climate signal difficult using raw station data." Code speak for the Chester County NWS COOP data does not support the warming hypothesis and instead supports the normal cyclical pattern of climate changes. Climate change is of course a constant and normal.
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Only if NOAA applies adjustments - my data is all of the available Chester County PA data clean and not adjusted. What you show above is not clean data. Your data is wrong as it shows below 51 degrees for Chester County in the 1890's. However the actual NWS COOP data shows the County average was actually 52.8. So you have an adjusting cooling that contaminates the data
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Finally overlaid the PHL weather observations from the 1890's vs. all of the available NWS Coop sites averages by decade for Chester County PA (PHL in Red)....unsurprisingly little warming in the suburbs....but once we get to the UHI Airport (just a little over 20 air miles east of Chester County) we are off to the warming races. Look at how the variance is rapidly growing! But no worries let's let our local ABC outlet continue to show only climate data from the PHL Airport since 1970.
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Some of the lower spots across the county saw sub-freezing temps this AM. Here in East Nantmeal we made it down to 33.4 degrees. Our last freezing morning was on April 9th...could that one and today in lower spots be our last such reading until October or November? I will post growing season stats later. We should warm back to about normal levels this afternoon (low 60's) before a big warm up to close the week. Temps on Friday could touch the mid-80's before showers arrive Saturday night and a return to cooler weather next week. Records for today: High 92 (1976) / Low 24 (1905) / Rain 2.05" (1943) / Snow 4.2" (1983)
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Some of the lower spots across the county saw sub-freezing temps this AM. Here in East Nantmeal we made it down to 33.4 degrees. Our last freezing morning was on April 9th...could that one and today in lower spots be our last such reading until October or November? I will post growing season stats later. We should warm back to about normal levels this afternoon (low 60's) before a big warm up to close the week. Temps on Friday could touch the mid-80's before showers arrive Saturday night and a return to cooler weather next week. Records for today: High 92 (1976) / Low 24 (1905) / Rain 2.05" (1943) / Snow 4.2" (1983) -
Typical up and down temps with spring weather. Well below normal temps today with highs struggling to reach the low to mid 50's. But a quick warmup to the 80's by Friday before a change back to well below normal by the end of the weekend into next week. Also a good chance of some rain starting Saturday. Records for today: High 95 (1896) / Low 21 (1928) / Rain 1.43" (1924) and Snow 0.3" (1983)
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
Typical up and down temps with spring weather. Well below normal temps today with highs struggling to reach the low to mid 50's. But a quick warmup to the 80's by Friday before a change back to well below normal by the end of the weekend into next week. Also a good chance of some rain starting Saturday. Records for today: High 95 (1896) / Low 21 (1928) / Rain 1.43" (1924) and Snow 0.3" (1983) -
We picked up 0.22" of much needed rain overnight here in East Nantmeal. Temperatures have continued to fall this morning since sunrise as a cold front passed through earlier this AM. Clouds will give way to sun this afternoon with temps at just about normal for mid April in the low to mid 60's. Below normal temps should remain through Wednesday with temps much of the time remaining in the 50's with near 60 by Wednesday. Much warmer to close out the week and with shower chances arriving by the weekend. Records for today: High 95 (1896) / Low 20 (1928) / Rain 1.82" (1910)
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread
ChescoWx replied to Hurricane Agnes's topic in Philadelphia Region
We picked up 0.22" of much needed rain overnight here in East Nantmeal. Temperatures have continued to fall this morning since sunrise as a cold front passed through earlier this AM. Clouds will give way to sun this afternoon with temps at just about normal for mid April in the low to mid 60's. Below normal temps should remain through Wednesday with temps much of the time remaining in the 50's with near 60 by Wednesday. Much warmer to close out the week and with shower chances arriving by the weekend. Records for today: High 95 (1896) / Low 20 (1928) / Rain 1.82" (1910)