ChescoWx

Ensemble runs are what I focus on this far out....

With the right track I have seen it snow with water temps in the low 50's.....

In looking at the GFS vs the Canadian - the GFS has more of a Miller B set up with a center jump to the coast while the Canadian has a classic Miller A but a very similar track to the GFS following the center jump...

I suspect we will see a big pick up in followers on FB this week? Below is my latest. "Of course just 6 hours later some big changes on the models. The Canadian now depicts plenty of model snow for the area (NOT A FORECAST)....while the GFS now shows a quick change from snow to rain with little accumulation (NOT A FORECAST). This is why it is critical to take any individual model run with a grain of salt. A professional forecaster will only incorporate these into a forecast when we begin to see both consistency between model runs and model suites. The main message here is there is growing potential for some sort of storm along the east coast next weekend. An early professional forecast from the NWS is still at least 4 or 5 days away. Notice that the difference between the earlier GFS and this run is only about 50 miles in track of the storm - but that would have big implications on type of precipitation across our area."

Happy New Year's Eve Day to all!! It should be a mostly cloudy seasonably chilly final day of 2023. We could ring in the New Year overnight and toward morning with a few light snow showers. Any very small accumulation amounts would be in areas over 700 ft ASL. A cooling trend looks to take place as we move through the week with the next chance of any snow or rain showers toward Thursday. A larger potential event may impact the area next weekend. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low minus 5 (1917) / Rain 1.68" (1906) / Snow 5.0" (1970)

Happy New Year's Eve Day to all!! It should be a mostly cloudy seasonably chilly final day of 2023. We could ring in the New Year overnight and toward morning with a few light snow showers. Any very small accumulation amounts would be in areas over 700 ft ASL. A cooling trend looks to take place as we move through the week with the next chance of any snow or rain showers toward Thursday. A larger potential event may impact the area next weekend. Records for today: High 64 (1965) / Low minus 5 (1917) / Rain 1.68" (1906) / Snow 5.0" (1970)

Just no bad juju for the Phightin Phillies this year!! Go Phils!!!!

I know we just posted about this earlier in the week - but I was in NE Philly growing up also at that time. We had been in such an incredible snow drought back in the 1970's. My first snowstorm over 6" that I could remember was not until January 1978 - Philly went from 1967 till 1978 without such a storm! If the next cycle of our climate brings back those no snow years....kids today who think where we live snowstorms are common will be jumping off The Tacony Palmyra Bridge!!!

Steve....I think you got it!!! I still believe we surpass last winter's snow total!!!! I am predicting an almost 100% increase in amounts!!!

Canadian Saves Winter!!! Lock er up!!!!

We almost hit freezing for the 1st time in a week across a couple spots this AM with Warwick Township at 32.3 and East Nantmeal at 32.7. Better chance tonight for widespread freezing temps. A chillier day today with increasing clouds and a couple flurries or sprinkles possible early this PM. While it will feel colder than it has been it will only be dropping to near normal levels to close out December. Records for today: High 63 (1898) / Low 9 below zero (1917) / Rain 1.56" (1912) / Snow 3.8" (2017)

We almost hit freezing for the 1st time in a week across a couple spots this AM with Warwick Township at 32.3 and East Nantmeal at 32.7. Better chance tonight for widespread freezing temps. A chillier day today with increasing clouds and a couple flurries or sprinkles possible early this PM. While it will feel colder than it has been it will only be dropping to near normal levels to close out December. Records for today: High 63 (1898) / Low 9 below zero (1917) / Rain 1.56" (1912) / Snow 3.8" (2017)

Chester County PA is working on it's own record - our current non 1" streak will stand at 658 days with the record only 4 days away!!

With not much going on weather wise how about another Top 25 List for Chester County PA? Below are the Top 25 snow months (except for October) in rank order

With not much going on weather wise how about another Top 25 List for Chester County PA? Below are the Top 25 snow months (except for October) in rank order

With just a couple days remaining here in December we are well on our way to finishing the month as the 4th warmest final month of the year. Of note is that 7 of the top 10 warmest December's have all occurred just since 2001!

That strange light in the sky is indeed sun today! Today should be our last well above normal temperature day for a while. We should see temperatures closer to normal as we finish 2023 and move into 2024. It looks dry till about Thursday morning or so when we might see a chance of some snow showers. Records for today: High 73 (1984) / Low -2 (1917) / Rain 3.48" (1901) / Snow 4.7" (1935)

With just a couple days remaining here in December we are well on our way to finishing the month as the 4th warmest final month of the year. Of note is that 7 of the top 10 warmest December's have all occurred just since 2001!

That strange light in the sky is indeed sun today! Today should be our last well above normal temperature day for a while. We should see temperatures closer to normal as we finish 2023 and move into 2024. It looks dry till about Thursday morning or so when we might see a chance of some snow showers. Records for today: High 73 (1984) / Low -2 (1917) / Rain 3.48" (1901) / Snow 4.7" (1935)

We are now up to 8.74" of rain so far this December. It does not look like much more if any rain will fall before the end of the month. This is now the 4th wettest December on record. The top 3 are: 9.42" (1996) / 9.24" (1901) / 9.16" (1973)

We are now up to 8.74" of rain so far this December. It does not look like much more if any rain will fall before the end of the month. This is now the 4th wettest December on record. The top 3 are: 9.42" (1996) / 9.24" (1901) / 9.16" (1973)

We ended up with total rain of 2.53" here in East Nantmeal. The 2.41" that fell yesterday broke the old record for the date of 1.50" set back in 1930. Some other area amounts include Atglen 2.19" / West Bradford Twp. 2.52" / Chester Springs 2.50" / Kennett Square 2.60" / Devault 2.17" / Warwick Twp. 3.21" / West Chester 2.16". Another dreary day today before sun returns tomorrow.