CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Not so sure I agree what Webber has there is the new eyewall at this moment.
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Man structure in tact for sure. Cuba did little damage.
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Tops are warming so Cuba having an effect. But as long as it has an eye structure, it should re-intensify.
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Yeah starting to get convection wrapping around center on IR. Here he goes.
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EPS looks like the op.
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18z Euro looks to bring it south of Tampa lol.
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Updated to .40" which is not half inch. Just saying.
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I see .26 Robin circle. Hmmm.
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No problem! Just giving my thoughts that's all.
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Well I am talking like an integration of the entire area...one dropsonde may not tell the story. Anyways I think it will strengthen and likely rapidly later tonight or tomorrow.
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Usually when you see that IR presentation, shear and/or dry air are the issues. Shear maybe slightly having some say in nrn half...but it has to work out the environment it had earlier that was sort of impeding the deep convection.
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Center is nowhere near Cuba. It's residual from whatever issues it had earlier.
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It's having trouble on IR on the nrn side. Clearly still being impeded for now.
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Still lots of dry air I think in nrn half of the storm.
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Then moves almost due north from there. That would not be good.
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About near Clearwater at hr 66.
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The presentation (spiral loo etc) is good, but lacks deep convection. I would not go higher than 85kts.
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Yeah, I agree. I see their reasoning, but I'm not sure how I feel about that call.
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A jump east from 6z.
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It will also depend on where that stalls, but yeah for sure the storm surge impact in Tampa is probably the most pressing in this whole thing.
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Guidance did have some drier air 500-300mb in NW side, but outflow looks real good and doesn't show that tell tale sign of something may be wrong quite yet. Guidance is real bullish on RI...but for the time being drier air gives me a little pause.
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Eh, if this stalls and weakens...not sure if this would be all that exciting to be honest.
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I love how the spread is increasing.
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So now the euro goes west of TPA and then curves NW.
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Although euro now stalls and goes towards Far East panhandle so that’s a change too when it brought it over the peninsula. As usual both adjust.
