CoastalWx
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Everything posted by CoastalWx
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Euro actually sucked with second landfall track
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32.1 may mean so we take.
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Slow AF
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That can work. Good luck to the radiators. Enjoy.
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Only 32 I care about is when precip is falling.
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Go to 1500’ to stay warm
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Fake cold incoming
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Oh baby
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Well 50s here, but brutal.
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EPS implies a shit weekend S of Pike.
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GFS is also pretty far NE too into SC.
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Yep, I remember that checklist. I was very bearish in the Oct 2020 event. I was using the past Novie events (2014 especially) where it just didn't do much. I thought maybe C-1" here locally. Winds backed just enough.
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Winds ever so backed at like a 350 direction helped too. I had a few events with N winds still give me trouble in November because of the SSTs in BOS harbor. Not this one lol.
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I believe so.
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Well obviously we have never really done that, so no. But think about it. Imagine warning a whole cone with 10s of millions of people needing to evacuate when maybe 10% experience hurricane conditions worthy of evacuating. The congestion on the highways......where are these people going to stay and go to? Who can accommodate such a mass exodus? And then there is the fall out regarding boy whole cried wolf syndrome. That is not science at all.
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GFS pretty far north into SC. Trend has been more east and north.
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He's saying that things are politicized now which aids in people not wanting to leave.
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Unfortunately, I see what the poster is saying.
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Well you are just assuming now, but the earlier posts of just warning the whole cone would do far more harm than good.
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Well, it typically is not the most reliable.
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I woke up yesterday and couldn't believe it.
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If anybody called for a 20mb drop before landfall...I'll buy you the next round.
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That would cause way too many false alarms and then social science comes in. "They said we would get a hurricane before and we never did so I am staying."
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NHC was in a tough spot. After guidance started tilting the possibility of landfall to the SE on Monday....you can't just abandon Tampa either with such a large, vulnerable population. And guidance other than Ukie, did not show this until 18z Monday.
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The forecasts and the possible landfall due to the cone were different though. That is nobody's fault...just pointing it out. Sure the cone maybe said landfall could occur on the outer edge of it, but they were only under a TS warning.
