CoastalWx

I think this is a big part of it. Fantasy storms are like pacifiers to the weenies. Even though they'll never end up verifying.

I have no issues pointing out caution flags...you know me. But for an ensemble mean.....it continues to look as if things are proceeding nicely. Are we really losing our shit over something that may be delayed 2-3 days??

This is almost text book for a good storm. Ridge over Rockies. PV in Quebec with extension to it east..and also south. That trough on the mean extending south is a classic look for infusing s/w energy into the mean trough. I know it's in la la land...but that's what you want to see.

Man the EPS looks sweet in the 11-15. It's doing exactly what others have said...ridge retros and we pop a Rockies ridge with mean trough Great lakes. That's a good look.

I don't mean to take it verbatim...my point is that people are seeing warm height anomalies at 500 and assuming torch. I also don't want deep blues sitting over my head.

Cold to mint julip land as the late Bruce Schwoegler used to say.

I feel like people are also getting limited data on the free sites like 500mb height anomalies and trying to corroborate that with srfc temps. Can anyone take a guess what the srfc temps look like with this look??

I do think it will get cold, but probably limited chances until it relaxes a tad. You never know though....a clipper or what have you can always squeeze in earlier. I think people assumed a switch is turned and it snows immediately. It typically does not work that way.

Just go for a few hours in the aftn.

Not gonna lie....it's like a parallel universe in here sometimes.

I actually scheduled this without realizing this was supposed to be my son's birthday party with his friends. But, we moved it to accommodate since it's been a long time I've been part of this GTG.

Kid moves 100 miles away and now tells us this. Wifehasmyballs_Wx.

I actually like the GEM ensembles better than the GEFS verbatim lol.

I saw the same that Will saw. I also saw that it injected a lot of water vapor into the stratosphere and some were wondering if that actually would help warm the atmosphere (troposphere) in the coming years...but that's the extent I have heard.

KVAT

Looks like status quo.

That's a good visual. Typically when that gets towards and north of Hudson Bay...we have more potential.

Something else that may give the Pacific a boost later on December. The MJO can be voodoo many times, but these to me...are good signals. Looks like some forcing gets past 135E later this month..but to boost that...the 850 easterly anomalies also move towards the east. The convergence area also shifts east which will aid in the MJO forcing also perhaps shifting east. If we were to have easterly anomalies across the basin and the IO blow up with tropical convection I would be more concerned...but this looks like a good thing to me anyways.

BDL was 55. Same here. Looks like someone farted on the HFD ASOS.

Yeah I think the chances come after it peaks in terms of SD anomalies.

I could see it being cold and dry for a bit until after the 12th or so before any real storm chances occur. The thing on the 7th-8th may be wintry up north with a mixed bag. I don’t see any real issues. You can’t really pin point deterministic things like snow opportunities. It’s a look that could deliver some chances. I don’t know how much more you can say with any confidence. We’ll blame Ray if nothing happens by a Christmas.

Lots of mushrooms being ingested.

Looks like he was locking in the euro op?

No 2015.

How were those record highs today?