CoastalWx

Well we both have science behind it right? You are probably thinking the confluence to the northeast is real and it certainly could be a gfs type solution. I’m thinking this will be a little closer to the region ala EPS. Antecedent airmass isn’t completely ideal for coast (although doable on gfs) and given the origins of these things, just think it’s more for NNE. But it’s all fun and games this far out. It would be silly to lock something in. I sense a little bit of snake bitten Scott coming out when he sees the gfs solution. The bottle of Scotch opened, feverishly rocking back and forth.

My gut is congrats PF. Maybe I need to break that out. In all honesty, seems like interior mixed event. No need for details this far out, but to me, gfs is an outlier.

Because it likely won’t happen.

Oh GFS.

Well the big takeaway is they haven’t gotten worse. A couple of runs were pretty bad, but have since improved. December to me doesn’t look like a classic, but I don’t see 2011 either. I think we’ll have chances and it starts Sunday. That’s all you can ask.

Probably more transient stuff, but there is no blocking imo.

-NAO vaporized. LOL poler vortex weenies.

Maine Mauler.

I'm not saying it won't snow, but I see those algorithms and then look at the thermal profiles.....I ask myself how is that possible.

The GFS and those weenie snow algorithms are gonna crush the hopes of so many weenies this winter.

Yeah I'll sell those thermal profiles.

GFS would be nice.

I didn't see the shoutout? But good article. I know it's not a snow lovers paradise, but you can't beat a good storm on the Cape.

In fact 6z EPS looks more suppressed than 00z out to hr144, but that doesn't mean much this far out.

I suppose it could, but my gut says a messy storm. Would want to have latitude for that one. Overall the extended has some volatility. The Pacific or Atlantic is not perfect, but it is sufficient for the interior anyways and perhaps the coast. Early December climo is still tough, especially near the Coast.

Man those algorithms as evident by yesterday's event are pretty bad. For shits and giggles are looked at it for next Sunday. While cool at the surface, it's mild 925-850 with temps just above 0C in those levels, yet has snow acc to like KTAN. Tossed. Buyer beware of those algorithms.

It's early, but I could see that. A SWFE with secondary redevelopment likely near the Cape.

Still need to watch 12/1.

That pic was not an inch.

HRRR is actually trying to show that now in recent runs.

I certainly wasn’t trying to go the weenie route either. It’s just that we know guidance struggles with mid-level banding, and yesterday morning it looked good in your area. Of course everything slid east and that argument went away.

JMHO but that wasn’t a good take.

The blocking may help, but I’m thinking that it will be a lot of non-crystalline precip around here. That is a hell of a trough out west. My goal has been later in first week of December and beyond for these parts.

I’m thinking a little out of the box with the banding. The model QPF states those amounts, but the 700 low seems to argue for a bit more, hence why I mentioned that. We were talking about it in the general November thread too. Of course, easy to say that when you’re not in the hot seat.

JMHO, but I think those snow amounts near PF and Jspin will go up with the aftn package. Pretty good signal nearby for heavier snows. We'll see what 12z stuff says.