CoastalWx

Days and days of gales Thurs-Sat.

Actually if the NAM is right, looks close to a PF jack based on mid level features. I thought the Pope said this would miss?

Might even get a rumble of thunder here tomorrow as MUCAPE increases. Perhaps TSSN up north?

Shouldn’t leave you out either. Looks healthy up that way. It’s definitely man snow for sure.

Seems like between you and Alex? Although maybe closer to him.

You mean do I expect something as it relaxes? I have no idea when that would occur.

Maybe I'll drive up and break in the Noyes complex.

I'm thinking later in week 1 and beyond. Anything before is gravy imo.

This storm has been all over the place.

Euro was good for you and Gene as well. At least imo. I guess it just comes down to dynamics.

You mean those awful weenie algorithms do. I’d sell those.

Should clarify, I meant expected the volatility like you said. But yeah...the Pacific is pretty nice looking overall.

What’s with the pessimism in here today?

Still think gene may get something fun on Sunday.

There is something on 12/2 and then 12/5ish give or take.

EPO into NW PNA domain improved, but the Davis Straits ridge became a trough. Almost like things sifted East a tad. But yeah I expect that. My opinion is that a true threat likely isn’t until the 7-8 of December or beyond. Maybe that system prior gets shunted, but I’m sort of setting that as my timeline.

If those winds are above 60-65 at 850 I’ll take the over. Those charts suck at CAA and are too weenie in srly wind events.

Still looks like Winni the Pooh float hitting light poles and impaling people on Thanksgiving.

That 700 track on the NAM. Gah...lol. Oh well. Maybe if a heavy band lasts the hills can flip, but 925-800 just seems too mild.

Not going to lie, that deformation rain band on the NAM is rather frustrating.

I should note that this is for our region. When you get near NYC and south, it can get much more challenging with a +NAO.

It will be nice to have your input too. Good spot for some challenges!

I just mean more or less the area by AK for example. That is a region in the Pacific where winter can be correlated rather highly. If we have a large area of low heights from the Bering Sea to the coastline down into the NW US...you can close those shades no matter what. We’ll be on a CONUS wide Chinook. Only the ski areas out west will benefit. With the NAO, a - NAO can help, but I think we obsess way too much with this index. Even if it’s positive, we can be ok at our latitude with a sufficient Pacific. Sure you play with fire, but a +NAO isn’t as bad of a death sentence as a +EPO is with an ugly AK trough. Like any pattern, there are flavors where certain stereotypes don’t behave as traditional thoughts go. 07-08 said that maybe a -PNA isn’t so bad given a well placed dateline ridge and vortex to our northeast. Last year was a decent Pacific, but we were just a bit unlucky in SNE with wavelengths.

I don't mean to come across as unclear so my apologies if so.

It can still work, I’m not trying to say it can’t, just that the NAO is our friend with these patterns. But you know me, I think we overrate the NAO. As long as pacific is ok we can make things work.