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CoastalWx

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Everything posted by CoastalWx

  1. CoastalWx
    I don’t have an issue with BOX map. Too many questions to go aggressive.
  2. CoastalWx
    I feel like I would show a bit more latitude variation than a widespread 2-5" but given the uncertainty, I can't disagree.
  3. CoastalWx
    Jack Mehoff? I know him well.
  4. CoastalWx
    That could happen. I'm open to that. I'm just going by gut and how it looks as depicted.
  5. CoastalWx
    I like the Euro and NAM depiction. I think the mid levels argue for north of the pike IMO. I also think the maps south of the pike are going to be more overdone vs north of the pike. 2-4" more like 1 to maybe 2". Maybe you cut off 25% near NH border? I think you have cooler mid levels and potentially better SG, so the 10:1 maps there aren't as egregious.
  6. CoastalWx
    So am I to guess this includes your backyard?
  7. CoastalWx
    Might be when it starts to weaken as it becomes more CAA at 700 vs getting the good convergence east of the low with some WAA and strong fronto like at 6z. Anyways, that's not always the end game (see 3/4/19 haha), but something to watch. Every model places it a little different.
  8. CoastalWx
    Of course that is assuming GFS is right.
  9. CoastalWx
    Given that and where the DGZ is, that is congrats nrn MA and SNH IMO.
  10. CoastalWx
    Put up 700 for the people at home.
  11. CoastalWx
    Just say “We at eastern MaWx feel this isn’t totally elevation dependent.” He loves to hear it coming from that source.
  12. CoastalWx
    Temp drops rapidly. Maybe ORH airport briefly accumulates better than lower spots, but to me..the biggest issue is how far north or south does the 850-700 temps get and where is the H7 warm front. Where that briefly pivots and stalls, will be where the jack is.
  13. CoastalWx
    It's not totally elevation. Because the temps 850-700 get to be like a SWFE...warmer to the south. So maybe elevation matters to a point, but so will latitude.
  14. CoastalWx
    Might even be a narrow area that gets pelted for a time too.
  15. CoastalWx
    Kevin's 3K a little more south. You see how delicate it is, but this does seem like oe of those events where 700-500 lift will dictate where the jack would be. Gonna need the DGZ to get smacked with VV to help flip that area over to snow. Look north of the H7 front IMO.
  16. CoastalWx
    Nah, watches not issued now. No confidence in Watch amounts at all.
  17. CoastalWx
    LOL, NAM has been so erratic, back to the days where the NAM behaving like the NAM we used to know.
  18. CoastalWx
    Pretty sweet look nrn MA/SNH on the NAM through hr 42.
  19. CoastalWx
    Placement of deep lift, timing of cold air infiltration, and a difference in temps of like 1-2F between 925-700ish or so will be tough to determine. That will be the difference of 1-2" vs 4-6"+.
  20. CoastalWx
    Because 3K can run even more wild.
  21. CoastalWx
    It won't be like that. That was a different beast. Should be a nice band on the nrn edge.
  22. CoastalWx
    Tough call with this. On one hand, high pressure building south and putting the squeeze on. On the other hand, convection and latent heat wanting to amp the downstream ridge a bit.
  23. CoastalWx
    Happy birthday Wolfie. Nam looks snowy for many, especially north of pike.
  24. CoastalWx
    I think hire right. I remember it was a mix of crap on my birthday may 8, and some sort of mix overnight to snow overnight.
  25. CoastalWx
    What a combo.
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