RitualOfTheTrout

Yeah, that look is starting to irritate me, that needs to die off quicker / further south, or just shift the whole mess east and move the nice deform band in eastern OH over us. If we finally get a decent shot from a storm coming up out of the South and some convoluted delayed messy transfer puts us in some localized shaft zone that will make waiting another 20 years for an inland runner all the more painful. Still plenty of time for minor changes that could improve that situation, and verbatim the area affected by that probably still gets at least 6, but you never know how that's going to play out and I'd rather it just be one of the negative variables that gets removed.

I'm sure its based of of multiple models / ensembles that they weight based on experience and what previous analogs to similar storms look like.

I agree, that is probably overdone at this point but that feature is on all models. I've been thinking now I'd rather the storm slip SE and sweat the edge of the deform band and have that slide into central pa. It would be cruel and unusual punishment if we finally get a good overall track but end up with 3 inches while areas 75 miles either direction get a foot lol

It drives the low right up into CNY which gives us a favorable NW flow with a connection to Lake Huron from what I can see, while a little piece of energy ripples through on Monday, another words probably would be a cold / overcast day with persistent light snow. Perfect way to end a Storm.

The agreement among the models right now is really solid in terms of track (pending Euro). Starting to get cautiously optimistic, if we are still looking good tomorrow at this time confidence really starts to go up and I'd think Winter Storm Watches go up as well. Even the ICON isn't that far off and really it's solution can't be discounted at this point. GEFS still East, but maybe something with their outdated physics vs GFS OP is getting exploited with this particular setup, either we are getting to the end of ENS usefulness but it would still be nice to see them "catch up" to the operational and other ENS suites.

Yes, I agree very similar. I kept toggling back and forth to previous run, if anything maybe it was a little slower. That dryslot is still precariously close, but that won't have any chance of getting nailed down until short term. Like I said before, might be best if we get a little of a jog east so that is more over central PA and even still if you did get caught in that it still a respectable snow storm.

Wow, yeah the discussion I posted above is completely removed now.. That's weird, I thought it did a decent job of describing the situation and uncertainty that still exists. I remember for awhile there were a couple guys (Fries / Booker) that would put their names at the end of the discussions. Fries were always fantastic when interesting weather was afoot. I was at a Skywarn class and even mentioned how much I enjoyed reading discussions when he posted them to the instructor and he was like oh yeah we here that a lot from the local news meteorologist etc. too. Not sure if he moved on or if some directive to keep the discussions shorter / more generic was issued or what. I won't ever bash our local office, but you can see compared to other offices the discussions are usually minimal. Maybe they take the approach of keeping discussions at a high level so as to not bog down the general public in meteorological jargon etc.

Overnight runs all still look decent from quick looks. NWS has a decent discussion on the storm and addresses that dryslot between precip maxes near the low center and the deformation band that we have been seeing. I'm not sure what to look for on that, other than getting the low center slightly further east so we stay firmly in the deform band. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad longwave troughing will persist across the eastern CONUS this weekend and likely through the entirety of next week, bringing persistent cold weather and occasional snow chances to the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains. Attention is on the upcoming winter storm Sunday into Monday. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has come closer in agreement with confidence slowly increasing towards an accumulating snowfall event for much of the forecast area. By late Saturday night, the low will begin to track from the TN Valley area northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and then eventually New England by Monday. There`s been nearly unanimous westward shift in the latest ensemble suites, with less energy diverted into developing a strong sfc low along the coastline. If latest consensus were to verify and the center of the surface / low-level low were to track northeastward just east of the spine of Appalachia, this would place the Upper Ohio Valley and Allegheny Mountains in a climatologically favorable(-for snow) spot on the north/northwest side of low, within the deformation snow band and then wrap around moisture and cyclonic flow as the low departs. However, there is often times an axis of lesser precip/snow, essentially a dry slot, between the low center and the deformation snow band. For this reason, it`s unlikely we`ll be able to provide a high-confidence accumulation forecast until perhaps just 24 hours. That said, p-type is just about a non-issue with this storm given the colder air in place, so we can at least say with confidence that snow will fall... we`re just unsure how much at this time. Latest ensemble means do suggest 3+ inches is becoming probable in much of the area east of I-77, with 6 inches or more entirely possible wherever banding occurs. Winter storm watches/warnings are likely in the coming days as this system gets closer. After the system departs Monday, cold northwest low-level flow off the Great Lakes will likely result in some chance for additional snow into Tuesday, followed by another quick-hitting clipper creating a chance for light snow on Wednesday as well.

Probably pretty irritating with all the self proclaimed Twitter certified meteorologists posting snowmaps for a storm 4 - 5 days away proclaiming the pretty pictures as absolute while being a real outlet like NWS trying to separate fact from fiction and actually inform the public. We are still very much within the envelope where this is a minor event or misses altogether. Models aren't likely to have the speed and strength of the follow up energy which ultimately phases and tugs the storm NW nailed down. That's the feature to watch along with strength of the storm and how far NE it makes it before that interaction happens.

Man... look at that low placement.. I feel like I'm a kid again in the 90s and Joe Denardo is about to come on the air lol I'm sure it hasn't been that long since a storm took this track but it feels like it and no doubt its rare. Euro gets more phase with that trailing energy allowing it to go almost due north and thus further west at our latitude. That part is only 76 hours out or so, and will be the make or break for us I think. Not to get greedy but we do have some room still on the Euro for slight adjustments west. To bad it's not Saturday lol

I agree 6-10 would be great. Hopefully we are starting to see the Euro and GFS take steps towards each other today.

GFS has the primary holding on to long, so that area gets a double whammy, 1st there are mixing issues there, 2nd that area gets caught in a dryslot as the dying low transfers over. Overall get that to happen quicker / further south like the ICON and problem solved.

Still a ton of uncertainty with this, the GFS and Canadian are good hits, Euro is a miss east. ENS for all 3 have come west, but OPs are still western outliers so the goal posts have seemingly narrowed but we could still be anywhere from partly cloudy to major snow event. Based on everything I've seen and you put a gun to my head to make a call I still think missing / getting fringed east is the more likely scenario. Mainly I'll be looking to see the goal posts continue to narrow. A compromise between the GFS / EURO would probably work pretty well, especially at 6z GFS introduced some potential mixing issues.

I spit my drink out reading that lol. I thought the same thing, is this technically a miller a, or what? It looks like on the GFS it redevelops a secondary low near SC, then as it starts moving NE starts getting captured by that energy diving down out of the Midwest which starts pulling it more NNE so I guess its sorta a miller B? Either way as of right no on the gfs it gets first prize for best costume at the Halloween parade in my book.

Finally get an inland track but only heavy flurries lol. Really though the Euro isn't far off, if the storm is slower or that energy in the Midwest is faster it's coming West.

Looks like everything agrees a possible NW track is possible right now, pending Euro. GFS OP appears to be the most extreme but we are so far out who knows what other changes will take place between now and then.

Is the ICON really worth looking at? I treat it with about the same weight as a single ENS member and don't really follow it's verification status so maybe that's not a fair way to value it's output. Curious for input on anyone else's take on it.

I agree, 6z ens had very little support for the westward jog on the OP depicted on that run. Start getting some ENS and other model support for a more inland track and overall agreement on evolution over the next couple days and I might start to get a little more optimistic. For now we have something to keep an eye on. Would be fantastic to score something even if much smaller early on in the pattern change and have snow around for awhile.

What could go wrong over the next 144 hours!? lol Fun to see, but don't let this set the bar for your expectations.

I agree, if the pattern lasts 2-3 weeks seems reasonable there would probably be at least 1-2 big storms. Probably as the pattern evolves our chances improve, right now the trough axis is pretty far east, even far enough folks on the coast are talking about. Of course a perfect phase or timed shortwave can still do the job and that's the low odds chance we have in the near term. I'd gladly take a couple back to back clippers / miller b setups if we are going to generally have sustained cold in the heart of January so at least the cold isn't a "wasted". Those types of storms are probably better odds too.

Every person who has analyzed the models for a snowstorm has failed, but where they have failed you will succeed. I've seen models take a blizzard away in one 6hr run, men have poured weeks of their life analyzing output only to smoke cirrus but despite the models ability to depress our hopes their strengths are still based on a world of rules. So your saying I'll be able to control the atmosphere so all of PA gets a historic blizzard? No, I'm saying when your ready you won't have too. You'll realize your climo sucks and you need to move or find a new hobby.

The way some of these games go with things happening to keep people watching to the very end sure does make you wonder... To my above comment: This. I can't imagine they'd be able to script these without league, ownership, coaches and players all involved and no way with that many involved someone doesn't talk about it, especially say someone like Antonio brown lol. Sure you could have officials throw a flag on borderline situations but a lot of these also would require the right plays to be called, players to actually execute or not execute so a desired outcome happens etc. The simplest answer here is probably right, the league has a good product and teams are generally close enough in competitive measure that random bounces / plays are enough to result in close games.

I agree, I'd take a 2-3 event like this with cold and snow showers after vs a 4-6 event that ends as rain and melts by noon.

Same, just shy of 2", we will probably pick up another tenth or so with the light flurries / snow showers to make it to an even 2" Overall this was a well forecast (local and NWS) and most models had us in the 2-3 inch range 24 hours out, no surprises good or bad. Will be nice to have a day the looks and feels like winter today, to bad we don't have a more NW flow, with the warm lakes could probably have had a couple more widespread decent bands make it down this way. Afterwards looks like a bit of a roller-coaster ride in terms of temperatures, with plenty of tracking. It will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves and if a bigger storm materializes.

Measured 1.5 around 10pm, back edge band is pivoting through now, getting a little bit of wind with it and some more moderate rates. Expect to end somewhere around 2.25 when it's all over but probably won't get a measurement until morning.