RitualOfTheTrout

Yeah, we usually score on the front end of the miller b before it jumps. I'll always roll the dice with a big miller a that runs inland just east of the mountains even though as you said waa is fairly easy and safe for a widespread hit.

Getting some decent snow bands here on and off. Picked up a quick quarter inch.

Wish it was here! lol

Speaking to the opposite of Jeff-V, I do recall years ago Scott mentioned prior to a big storm he is a bit of a "snow weenie" Did not use that terminology, but reading between the lines I picked that up. I don't mean to say he has ever been unprofessional in his forecasting etc. but more so deep down I think he probably roots for the big ones like us.

That's what I was saying yesterday, no doubt some areas are getting a historic blizzard reading some of the obs threads, but it was really close to something bigger for a larger area or real estate. Looks like it did take a little longer to capture and get going and thus DE probably didn't do as well, also tracked a bit further SE, and with the cutoff being so sharp that really impacted places on the edge. I can't imagine historic blizzard warnings and being essentially 2 counties over and getting only like 2-3 inches. I'd probably make some posts in here that I'd later regret lol

Just quoted RD9108's post about WPIX snow map. It shows for me in the post, but if I click it I see the broken image icon too. Not sure what is up.

Looks like direct output from the 00z GFS to be honest. That's from two separate waves, must be a slow news day.

A little unusual looking at radar, returns are moving almost due North to South.

I mean if Hughes misses that puck in our zone and you have those 2 guys going in the other way that might have ended it in favor of Canada. That's usually how it goes though, its a razors edge one way or another. Amazing play all around. Just goes to show, if you have hot goaltending and keep it a one shot game anything is possible. I did feel a little bad for Sid, had to be killing him to not be out there competing. Hope its a short recovery and he's back to 100 percent for the Pens.

Hell of a Hockey game! Team USA! Gotta love hockey players, Jack Hughes picks his teeth up off the ice, is right back out there and scores the OT winner.

This storm just feels like a little bit of wasted potential, I'm not even talking for us, and I know it still hasn't happened yet but the garbage antecedent air mass and it coming together just a little bit to late are really going to limit areas that see something historic. Don't get me wrong, the areas under the blizzard warning are going to get rocked and Id love to be there and see it, but had this dug a litt further SW it really could have been much more for a much bigger area.

Picked up almost 2 inches on the deck. Less on the grass, and nothing on sidewalk / roads. It stuck to all the trees, pretty scene out there til we warm up later.

Just started snowing about 10 minutes ago. Nothing crazy rate wise, but radar looks good.

I was 12 for 93, I remember it well, but I didn't take it all in as much as I should have while it was happening. I just didn't grasp how rare of a storm it was.

Time for a visit? If so swing by and pick me up lol. Somewhere out that way is going to have hours of what we got a taste of for like 10 minutes during that last squall. Its tantalizingly close here for something a little bit more significant if we could somehow steal that western band of frontogenesis... Just real it west a little more.

Same, and Im a deep sleeper! Pouring again now, all the runoff on the street is so grimey, finally all that salt is getting washed out.

NCEP just released a statement: The GFS is penning a ballad for y'all when it pulls the rug on what it showed at 12z:

Looks like an inverted trough type setup. Those are notoriously hard to pin point outside of very short term. I wouldn't bank on that happening, probably why NWS isn't to excited.

Those maps are not created based on one day of model runs, more like a blend over the course of a couple days with different weight applied based on what the forecaster thinks is important in any given setup. It's happened numerous times when a storm was on the models then gets lost in the mid-range only to come back in some form or another. I'm not saying it will happen this time, but it would be crazy if actual forecasts for public consumption swung all over with every model run. If that were the case, you may as well just load up Facebook and read some yahoo showing the latest snow map from Euro and presenting it as a forecast.

Im with you, give me 2nd week of november thru the second week of February any year. That's part of the reason I'm happy with this season, strong early start and good storms. I had fun with all the events, Winter lived a good life, now I'm mentally worn down and welcome the natural change of seasons. Anyways, another hint Spring is around the corner, the birds. Nothing says deep winter like hearing birds chirping while you shovel snow lol I agree after next week we warm significantly, doesn't mean we can't sneak something in, or maybe we cool mid March but with each passing day for it to be worth my time a snow event needs to increasingly up the ante.

Today should just about do it for the snow pack in my yard, does feel nice though.

I've got an eyebrow raised, but temps are marginal even with a perfect transfer. Miller Bs we gotta make hay on the primary tracking perfectly to thump us, then the secondary development cuts off waa before we slop, and we don't have much buffer vs the Jan storm and those details won't get resolved until much closer. One thing these 12z runs do guarantee though is Ill be checking in more than once a day now.

I'd be shocked if we don't get at leat 2 or 3 colder windows to snow before spring. Problem is without stable blocking any storm threat is even more highly dependant on interactions with other waves leading to more uncertainty than usual past day 4. All this to say I wouldn't get interested in any threat until its consistently shown 96-120 hours. I guess that holds true for a lot of setups, but moreso here in my opinion.

I agree with you here. If there ever was a good month to torch, it's March, at least after the first week to 10 days. Sure, if you are going to get some blockbuster snowstorm, I'm all for it, but a 2–4-inch snow in March is more of a nuisance than enjoyment vs if it happens in DJF.

I do view it on the whole rather than month by month, and we all want / enjoy things differently, combined with the fact even in a really good storm not all our yards get the same experience. To me that storm in Jan with a foot of snow, snow falling during the day, with temperatures in the low teens followed by 2 weeks of snowpack is pure perfection. I weight that much higher than some 4-6 event in late Feb or early March that melts 12 hours later. I also weight a colder and snowier December higher than if it happened in February. I think the other thing is the consistent cold, sure we had thaws, but we were tracking snow possibilities the entire season to this point which is rare. Put it this way, if next November I was given the option to have a repeat of this winter play out similarly over the course of December and January, or roll the dice and "hope" for something better it would be hard to pass up on that offer.