mob1
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Everything posted by mob1
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Same here, though that's the likely outcome (or maybe even worse). It is what it is, at least it didn't happen with a snowstorm or hurricane.
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At least it's for a rain (and wind) event.
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I think the 6Z Euro is the most exciting solution for now, it has very little Sunday but the secondary low on Monday is consolidated and brings moderate to heavy rain with strong winds. Some of the other models have more rain on Sunday but the entire event is more drawn out and it's light to moderate rain with decent winds.
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GFS remains 1-2" areawide with solid winds for the coast.
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ICON also has the heaviest rain near Boston and gives us about an inch (though more for the Hudson Valley).
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I was referring to the area of convection over SE New England. Those often rob the dynamics of the low. RGEM therefore destroys the Boston area.
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We'll have to watch over the next day or so if the models chasing convection to the NE of the main low are real or convective feedback. Models sometimes do it at this range only to consolidate it as we get close, and sometimes it makes that area the main low and robs all dynamics of the main storm. All options still on the table, but I'm leaning towards a milder event.
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Are you looking at a current run? It hasn't run on TT or Pivotal Weather in a few days (when many models had it missing to the SE). Today's 12Z run was posted in the Mid Atlantic thread, and it looks really good.
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Rain rates have been really intense near and over Chapel Hill for a few hours now, probably the next area to see significant flooding.
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The precipitation shield (remnants of Chantal) has basically stalled and will slowly pivot to the NE and die out, flooding is already being reported in some areas and will probably only get worse over the next few hours.
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I think I saw an 80+ dBZ reflectivity earlier. Absolutely bonkers hailers today.
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The GTG shear on the PDS warned tornado in western Texas was pretty high end for a few scans. Looks somewhat messy now.
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Little shower approaching here and the trajectory of the showers to NW moving SE look promising (though it might miss to my north). My lawn is loving all this water.
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The cell east of Spencer TN had a pretty intense couplet (though not as impressive in the last few scans) and a weak TDS.
