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Excited to decide whether GFS is the worst model of all time or the most accurate winner for this storm in about three minutes

The NAM has the new data already?

The Wakefield discussion is a little weird, with repeated references to the storm beginning on Saturday, transitioning to a mix on Sunday, then turning to snow on “Monday morning,” and saying “precip will likely conclude by Monday evening.” Seems late even for the coast.

The mass panic buying may be here already. Just went to our local ACE here in Takoma and already empty shelves (selling out of de-icer, sleds, and shovels), they said it’s been nuts today.

These panels showing the onset of the snow just hitting us - with precip still in Texas and west, and no mixing until you pass Virginia - are just beautiful

Pretty strong language by LWX: 568 FXUS61 KLWX 211943 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 243 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for western Garrett County for tonight due to accumulating snow of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulation of up to a glaze. The threat for a Major winter storm continues for this weekend with very cold temperatures expected. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday night bringing widespread snow and mixed precipitation to southern areas. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend through early next week. - 2) Wintry precipitation over portions of the Alleghenies late this afternoon through Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Major winter storm will impact the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday night bringing widespread snow and mixed precipitation to southern areas. Arctic high pressure will build into the area Friday afternoon into Saturday morning providing the source for very cold temperatures this weekend through early next week. Arctic high pressure will build north of the local area Friday night into Saturday and settle over southern Quebec providing a classic cold air damming event. Meanwhile, Gulf moisture will start overrunning the sfc bdry across the south Fri and expand northward into our area Saturday afternoon. After review of all available 12Z deterministic, ensemble guidance including AIFS shows the 12Z Canadian and EC models remained consistent to their previous runs, while the 12Z GFS trended more northwestward compared to prior runs from 24 hrs ago. The 12Z EC also trended colder aloft in the 850-700 mb layer lessening the threat of mixed precip especially over the northern half of the fcst area, but still with a significant fzra threat for St. Mary`s County. Probability of a foot of snow or more is now roughly 50% areawide, except south of the Capital Beltway where mixed precip is becoming increasingly likely, particularly across St. Mary`s County. The heavy snow combined with very cold temperatures in the teens will result in a high impact winter storm areawide with potentially life-threatening conditions. After the storm departs late Sunday night, frigid temperatures may pose a risk of hypothermia, power, phone and shortage of supplies across the region.

A quarter inch of ZR, a little sleet, and 10+ inches of snow, followed by absolute frigid temperatures for a week would be an absolute mess. Schools would not open until Thursday at earliest.

EURO looks great? Not THAT much leeway for DC/south but that’s what we’d expect… would take this no questions asked

Going to be a beautiful map by tomorrow evening

Would not be surprised if they do early tomorrow, too. First “extreme” event possibility since 2016 I think.

Math isn’t mathing unless you’re in Boston

That number brings back some serious childhood memories

NAM about to show quite a storm

I lived up there 2014-2017, got very lucky, *and* flew down to Baltimore for January 2016. I knew it was a snow drought recently, did not realize it was a *no six inch snow for four years* drought

That Boston stat is wild. No six inch snows in four years?!

NWS grid forecast for DC has “snow” at 80% Saturday night and Sunday… don’t know the last time I’ve seen such a high pop this far out.

I did this 20+ years ago and always hyped it up too much. Was great when the jackpot hit though. “4-8 or 6-8 inches and possibly more, and we will know much more at the end of the week” seems fine

Don’t think it’ll be Noon Saturday unless you’re outside this area

I think this one just has a different underlying setup than what we have seen recently. Bust potential more likely that it stays south with no (relevant) phasing.

It’s also worse these days than it used to be, because everyone sees 19-23” on their Apple Weather app and the question is no longer “will it snow” but “two feet of snow?”

ICON is beautiful with … even more upside.

Man this is this fastest moving thread for scattered flurries in history

We are so back https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1891871907869274502?s=46

On the bright side at least it didn’t trend NW and leave us with a cold rain

If this storm indeed comes back it will be the most epic forecasting weekend of all time