4 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Just flipped to mostly snow. I'd imagine MHT will report SN on the next ob. 

i would hope so. I can see the tower at MHT from here, and it is definitely snowing

22 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Good?

incorrect.

38 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Trying to flip to snow at CON. Goes back and forth between white rain and 75% snow. 

nothing down here either. if you look hard enough you can see some flakes mixing in, but that's about it. looks like it might be changing over soon. either that or we ride the line all day

8 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Maybe if we socialized medicine and pharma we wouldn't have share holders? 

Canada has socialized medicine. how are they doing with covid?

5 hours ago, George001 said:

Strong slow moving monster ocean low, 2+ inches of QPF, low coming up the coast and stalling right over the cape, earlier transition to snow than expected in many areas, and now models are ramping up snowfall output as the storm is on top of us. Everything I look at screams overperformer

look out the window right now. 

Do you still think this screams overperformer?

33 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m not using the clown maps. No clown map besides maybe the long range nam (which is garbage anyways) showed anywhere near what I forecast. I don’t use snow maps when making forecasts, what I do is I look at the 500 millibar pattern to try and figure out if the surface presentation makes sense (on the euro it seemed to make sense), then I check the temp profiles in the upper levels, and if there are no warm layers I go through the run and look at how much QPF falls under a temp profile that supports snow. Based on what I have seen from the upper level temps, the snow maps are drastically underestimating the amount of snow. What the models say is a cold rain is a heavy wet snow based on the temp profiles. My analysis of the 6z euro was that the evolution supported over a foot of snow (thermal profiles supported 1.5-2 inches of QPF as snow, but ratios less than 10:1 so not more like 12-15 inches instead of 15-20 inches) in my backyard even though the maps only had like 6. 

put up your forecast map.

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, that was actually 2009...I think 10/18/09. There was this crazy UVV max that dumped like 3" in Foxborough in a 2 hour span. In ORH, I had about 2" over the course of 6 hours....never had the rates that Foxborough had, but we had enough elevation to slowly accumulate.

 

Agreed that this one has a colder profile...at least aloft. The question is how much UVV do we get. Seems to be a lot of disagreement this close in for how strong the cross-hair sig is for the 495 belt....a GFS-esque scenario doesn't give much, but some of these other runs do cross-hair us for several hours which could force a 32F 1/4 mile parachute party for 4-6 hours....and we know things can stack up quickly at those rates. Such a huge difference between that and 34-35F wet noodles at 1-1.5 mile vis.

meanwhile further north at MHT it was white rain with no accumulations. I remember getting home from being somewhere and flipping on the Pats game. I saw the field and was like WTF, I thought it was a rerun of an old game, due to all the snow, and the throwback uniforms. not to mention the score was like 100-0, except this time the Pats were winning. good thing i don't do drugs, because I was all kinds of confused.

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I wouldn’t get a shovel out for anything under 6” at this point.  It will be gone in a few hours.

i wouldn't get a shovel out for anything, period. why bother

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I just checked the models and based on what I am seeing it appears a low is going to be developing underneath Long Island and undergo rapid cyclogenesis, developing into a monster ocean low reminiscent of April 1st 1997. It is later in April, but the low appears to strengthen so drastically on the Euro and Navy that it dynamically cools the atmosphere and changes the rain over to heavy snow and blizzard conditions. The models aren’t showing it with the snow map algorithms, but based on the upper levels of the atmosphere as well as the strength of the low, the models support mostly snow after starting as rain. The upper levels are well below freezing with a low rapidly strengthening after transferring under LI, which screams blizzard not only in the berkshires but right down to the south shore and possibly even the cape. Based on the Canadian, which is the lower envelope of guidance in terms of snow potential, approximately .5 of liquid falls as rain before the upper levels dynamically cool enough to support snow, and from that point to the end of the storm approximately 1 in of qpf falls, which translates to roughly 6-8 inches in the lower elevations with 12+ in the higher elevations (due to ratios). This is the LOW end. If you look at the navy or euro, the low develops earlier, strengthens more, and brings in more cold air which lead to not only increased QPF but higher ratios, so it supports 30+ in the higher terrain with 18-24+ right down to the south shore. In this type of early spring nor’easter threat, the snow map algorithms are useless. The upper levels and dynamics tell a different story than the 10:1 snow maps as well as the surface maps. My official forecast is a blend of the euro, navy and Canadian:

Worcester Hills and Berkshires: 20-30 inches, iso 40

I95 corridor: 15-25 inches, iso 30

south shore: 8-16 inches, iso 20

cape: 6-12 inches, iso 15

if inside I95/128 gets >12", I will allow you to impregnate me. which, since I am a man, is just as likely to happen as anything you stated in your post.

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, I'm not heartless and without empathy ... I can see that may have been a hasty post on my part.  But I know Weatherwiz from years on line and I think he understood the intent and conversation - could be wrong.. My bad Wiz' if that was offensive.  Like I said, "... I'm not saying your pops was a 'sinner' per se .."

That said, it is unfortunately the harsh reality:  carrying on with an unhealthy life style is, in fact, immoral  ... and the post was not about his father - it was about that fact, and to expose the irony that this infectious agent appears based in the space for how sever it affects -

 

re: bolded text: since when is being unhealthy immoral? who came up with that "fact"?

mow #1 in the books. really just a cleanup mow. dustiest ever. It’s really dry out there

5 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What other diseases /viruses would this mRNA technology help with?   Now that they have a blueprint is it hard to do?

there are literally dozens. This technology was ready to roll with SARS, and even swine flu. but since those snuffed  themselves out, there was no need for the vaccine.

Ticks are out in full force. Have had 3 crawling on me in the last 2 days.  Nuke the little fockers when you can. I’ll be spreading poison tomorrow.

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

Haven't we've been hearing that people that have had covid have had problems with the vaccine?

you got a link for that?

i have heard that some have had worse side effects, but i wouldn't call that a problem.

4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

I hope the weather 3 years from today is as nice.  The astronomical event of our lifetime in NNE.  Total solar eclipse.   Northern VT is closest to centerline.  Book your Stowe trip now!

 

sorry, but the 26,280 hour GFS says that it’s going to be 50, cloudy with drizzle.

a good friend of my family, guy around 50 years old spent 65 days in the hospital, a majority of which was in ICU, with covid. he was on a ventilator for over a month. i don't know how many times doctors told his wife that he wasn't going to make it through the night. Dozens of times. he had no other underlying health issues. who knows what the long term impacts will be on his heart and lungs, but it can't be good. 

Personally there is no way on this earth that I would risk being in that position. yes, I am firmly on the vaccine train. the mRNA technology has been around for 20+ years, and yes it has been tested. there is some real good info in this article for those who care to read about the facts. 

Edit: to find this article, did a google search for "how long has mRNA technology been around". it was the very first article. If people are interested in learning about stuff like this, the info is out there. you just have to actually read it.

39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2 good rain events in a row and a shit pattern ahead and he's posting this? It's mostly D0 outside of VT and we know they never truly have to worry about water. Napril Fool's maybe?

that plus in the tweet he said "last year there wasn't any drier than average conditions in the northeast". 

i thought we were in some kind of drought last year? or is he trying to say last year at this time?

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

My main intent with that post was the hospitalizations.  Anyone following this even a little bit knows that the vaccines aren't 100% at preventing illness, but the trial data did indicate no hospitalizations.  Now we have 8 of those in WA.  Though like Phin said, the need for hospitalization is a bit subjective and it would be interesting to know if these hospitalizations were a borderline call or if those people are gravely ill.

8 out of 1.2 million were hospitalized. let me put it this way, there are a lot of zero's after the decimal point of the percentage. it's less than 1/100th of a percent. so the vaccine that those people got was 99.99% effective at preventing hospitalizations. i think that's pretty good, but I am no expert.

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

May be some of the first documented instances of fully vaccinated people being hospitalized in the United States?  Still, you greatly, greatly cut your odds of needing to be hospitalized if you get vaccinated.

 

Over 100 fully vaccinated people contract COVID-19 in Washington state, officials say

Most cases were patients who experienced only mild symptoms, if any, according to a press release from the Washington State Department ofHealth.

However, at least eight people with breakthrough cases have been hospitalized. The Washington State Department of Health is also investigating two potential breakthrough cases where the individuals died. Both patients were over 80 years old and suffered from underlying health issues.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/100-fully-vaccinated-people-contract-covid-19-washington/story?id=76784838

100 out of 1.2 million who were fully vaccinated in Washington. That’s 0.1%

I like how you left that part of the article out of your snippet

1 hour ago, alex said:

Is it just me or has NWS P&C been down for a while? 

they posted on their FB page that they are having technical difficulties, seems to be multiple WFOs

i got Pfizer #1 on saturday. not a single side effect for me.

45 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Used to love hitting the Bowl in college. 

who didn’t!

oh wait, we might be talking about different things. 

12 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Been pleasantly surprised here with the biting bugs. Everyone warned me about the black flies, but I don't think I had any last year, or if I did they were not bothersome at all and I never noticed them. I also didn't have too many issues with mosquitoes, nothing too irksome at least compared to anywhere else. The mosquitoes we did have were comically huge though -- like three times the size of a mosquito from MD. My property is very marshy in spots so I was expecting a lot of those bastards.

We did have some huge hornets in May and June. Freaking fat assholes buzzing you all day and flying around the house. They seemed to die down by July. Also many large moths swarming every light. The bugs here are all super-sized, it seems, like a prehistoric land that time forgot.

 

if i remember right, you moved in over the summer last year? i think you may have missed black fly season up there. it's usually April down here, so i suspect you will start seeing them mid-April into late may.

The hornets were looking for a nice place to build a home in the eaves of your house. they love the sunny warm sides. it's hard to keep them away, you just have to keep them from building a nest.

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

it's pretty dumb (the middle america lawn craze).  but to each their own

i know, it is pretty dumb how some people like to have a nice looking lawn and yard.

25 this AM to a torchy 68 degrees. nice  43 degree swing.  It was a glorious day.